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Author Topic: what is the most naturally red state?  (Read 1750 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: August 24, 2012, 06:36:30 am »
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In my opinion, its Kansas. Looking at election results, the state, along with many surrounding areas, seem to be the most politically unchanged in the past century. The state was largely settled by the base of the party which was old-stock American farmers/small business owners often of Methodist background. They often opposed slavery and fought the abolitionist cause during the civil war. But the state seemed to lack the demography that pushed many union states (the civil war type not the UAW) to the democrats during the 20th century. There was no massive immigration of southern and eastern Europeans and no migration of black Americans as it lacked a major city like New York or Chicago. While Vermont is similar to Kansas in this regard, I think what pushed VT into the dem column while Kansas remained republican was that Vermont remained a very secular state while KS didn't (and even Vermont has a large ethnic catholic population).

So the state essentially is too far north to have any dem heartstrings like OK, too far south to have any Scandinavian NPL/Farmer Labor/Progressive types (although James Weaver did carry the state as a populist in 1892) and too far west to have any machine/hack big city dems. Also, they being liberal enough to fight the union cause during the civil war and vote republican but not liberal enough to move to the democrats as NY or MA did as they still were xenophobic to wets, immigrants, and labor causes of the 20th century; you basically have a state that has voted pub in all but two elections since 1920 and not electing a dem senator since 1932.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2012, 06:40:22 am by freepcrusher »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2012, 11:01:45 am »
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Kansas is one of the few states that was typically Republican-leaning in the past that still leans that way.  And remember, Bryan carried Kansas in his first campaign in 1896.
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2012, 12:42:12 pm »
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Kansas is one of the few states that was typically Republican-leaning in the past that still leans that way.  And remember, Bryan carried Kansas in his first campaign in 1896.

No state's voting streak is perfect. Tongue From 1896 to 1916, there were Western states willing to vote Democratic where before and after they went back to strongly Republican. Again during the FDR-Truman elections, there were many states that reversed voting trends for a couple of elections.
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2012, 04:59:50 pm »
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you basically have a state that has voted pub in all but two elections since 1920 and not electing a dem senator since 1932

Kansas has voted for a Democratic presidential nominee three times since 1920: FDR in 1932 and 1936, and LBJ in 1964. Prior to that, Wilson carried the state in 1912 and 1916, along with William Jennings Bryan in 1896 and James Weaver in 1892, who ran as the People's Party candidate but was listed on the Kansas ballot as the nominee of the Democratic Party as well, since the Kansas Democratic Party endorsed him as their nominee. So Kansas has voted seven times for a Democratic presidential nominee since the state first participated in presidential elections in 1864. Kansas was Abraham Lincoln's best state in 1864, so it has been Republican since the beginning, unlike the southern states which are Republican now but had been Democratic in the past.

The thing is that if you look at recent presidential elections, Kansas has not been the most Republican state for a long time. The last time that Kansas was the most Republican state in a presidential election was in 1944. Since then, Kansas has been voting Republican more often than not, but there have been other states that have been more Republican, including Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Oklahoma, North Dakota (1952, 1980, 1992, 2000, 2004), South Dakota (1980, 2000), Arizona (1964, 1980), Vermont (1948, 1952, 1956), New Hampshire (1988), and Maine (1948). Even if you look at the 2008 vote, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska, and Oklahoma were all more Republican than Kansas.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2012, 06:33:50 pm by White Cloud »Logged
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2012, 07:08:22 pm »
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I can make a strong argument that it's Arizona, but I'm too tired at the moment. 
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2012, 02:42:09 pm »
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Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Kansas. The only consistently Republican states.
Wyoming Chief among them, IMO .
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2012, 04:52:09 pm »
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Indiana
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2012, 07:25:43 pm »
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Oklahoma is the most Republican state

As for which state is most consistent in it's voting, Republican wise...probably the ones freefair listed.
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2012, 02:58:04 pm »
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This is actually a loaded question.  Are we talking about just on the presidential level, the state level, or both?  Even deep "red" states have been known to elect Democrats for governor and other statewide offices. 

Also, you can define the question in a historical sense, or strictly in the contemporary sense.  In the former, I think freepcrusher is correct and Kansas is the best answer.  In the latter, I would lean toward the sparsely populated western states of Utah, Wyoming, or Idaho. 
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2012, 03:33:25 pm »
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Oklahoma is the most Republican state

Aren't most voters there still registered Democrats?

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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2012, 04:15:36 pm »
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Oklahoma is the most Republican state

Aren't most voters there still registered Democrats?


The thread is about which state is reddest, not which is most Republican. There's a difference, albeit a slight one.
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2012, 09:35:55 pm »
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Kansas has the longest running drought for Democrats in the Senate.  They haven't won since 1936, 76 year streak
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2012, 06:05:14 pm »
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Kansas, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho.  2nd tier, Nebraska, Arizona, and Oklahoma.
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2012, 11:49:07 pm »
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In which state does the GOP get the biggest supermajority of the white vote?  Mississippi?  Then that's the 'most naturally red state' as it conforms most precisely to the signature strategy of the GOP.
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2012, 12:47:31 am »
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Idaho is the most red state in my view
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2012, 07:11:56 pm »
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Wyoming.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2012, 08:35:39 am »
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This is actually a loaded question.  Are we talking about just on the presidential level, the state level, or both?  Even deep "red" states have been known to elect Democrats for governor and other statewide offices. 

Also, you can define the question in a historical sense, or strictly in the contemporary sense.  In the former, I think freepcrusher is correct and Kansas is the best answer.  In the latter, I would lean toward the sparsely populated western states of Utah, Wyoming, or Idaho. 
True.  But a lot of supposedly "blue" States have elected Democrats to statewide offices too.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #17 on: November 30, 2012, 06:40:08 pm »
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Wyoming.

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« Reply #18 on: December 01, 2012, 01:41:26 pm »
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Indiana

2008 debunks that -- but barely. Economic conditions and Barack Obama well fit the state in 2008, but not 2012.

No state has a perfect streak of going R in the last half of the twentieth century and into the 21st.  Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (except for CD-02 in 2008), Kansas, and Oklahoma haven't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964. Arizona voted for its R Favorite Son in 1964 but for Bill Clinton in 1996. Indiana and Virginia were in that category until 2008 -- Carter won every former Confederate State except Virginia in 1976; Clinton never won Virginia, and won every state surrounding Indiana in both 1992 and 1996 but not both times. 

On the other side is the District of Columbia -- although I suspect that Eisenhower would have won it in one of 1952 or 1956 had it voted. Stevenson well lined up the Southern racist vote if by default, and that might have pushed DC toward Ike had it been voting for President. Minnesota was the lone state voting for Mondale in 1984 -- and barely! -- for a Favorite Son. Massachusetts went twice for Reagan but was the only state that voted for McGovern.

Kansas is probably now the most consistently Red state.  It was never part of the South; it has been ethnically homogeneous for most of its history (although there is a large Hispanic immigration into Kansas now); it is rural. Kansas City, Kansas and perhaps Lawrence are fairly liberal, but Wichita is not. Its most famous industry is private aircraft whose customers are usually very right-leaning. The R hold on the South (in that sense I include such border states as Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri, and Oklahoma) is shaky if the Democrats ever win back the poor whites who used to reliably vote for Democrats. Demographics will eventually make Arizona and Texas become targets for Democratic campaigns. If Republicans ever double down on religious bigotry they could lose Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming due to large Mormon populations and the Dakotas and Nebraska due to large Lutheran populations.   (They would lose about everything else, to be sure, and probably their future).
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« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2012, 02:58:42 pm »
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Eisenhower truly managed to change the tide of my state in a fell swoop. It was one of the states that ALMOST went to Goldwater, but not quite (like Idaho and Florida).

After 64 for though, in spite of some occasions where it swung a bit Democratic (1988), has been solidly republican on a national level. On a state level, however, we've been electing majority Democrats until very recently.
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« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2012, 03:11:43 pm »
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Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma have voted for the same party in every election since 1952.  Alaska has voted the same party as the above states in every single election since becoming a state.
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« Reply #21 on: December 02, 2012, 12:19:00 pm »
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Utah.
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« Reply #22 on: December 02, 2012, 03:41:55 pm »
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Indiana

2008 debunks that -- but barely. Economic conditions and Barack Obama well fit the state in 2008, but not 2012.

No state has a perfect streak of going R in the last half of the twentieth century and into the 21st.  Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (except for CD-02 in 2008), Kansas, and Oklahoma haven't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964. Arizona voted for its R Favorite Son in 1964 but for Bill Clinton in 1996. Indiana and Virginia were in that category until 2008 -- Carter won every former Confederate State except Virginia in 1976; Clinton never won Virginia, and won every state surrounding Indiana in both 1992 and 1996 but not both times. 

On the other side is the District of Columbia -- although I suspect that Eisenhower would have won it in one of 1952 or 1956 had it voted. Stevenson well lined up the Southern racist vote if by default, and that might have pushed DC toward Ike had it been voting for President. Minnesota was the lone state voting for Mondale in 1984 -- and barely! -- for a Favorite Son. Massachusetts went twice for Reagan but was the only state that voted for McGovern.

Kansas is probably now the most consistently Red state.  It was never part of the South; it has been ethnically homogeneous for most of its history (although there is a large Hispanic immigration into Kansas now); it is rural. Kansas City, Kansas and perhaps Lawrence are fairly liberal, but Wichita is not. Its most famous industry is private aircraft whose customers are usually very right-leaning. The R hold on the South (in that sense I include such border states as Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri, and Oklahoma) is shaky if the Democrats ever win back the poor whites who used to reliably vote for Democrats. Demographics will eventually make Arizona and Texas become targets for Democratic campaigns. If Republicans ever double down on religious bigotry they could lose Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming due to large Mormon populations and the Dakotas and Nebraska due to large Lutheran populations.   (They would lose about everything else, to be sure, and probably their future).

Keep in mind that Kansas is not majority-rural, even though it has a larger rural population than most states (35%, compared to about 19% nationally). The rural population is declining in Kansas; places like Johnston and Sedgwick Counties are increasingly more influential in the state's politics. 
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