The black vote in 2012

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Let us suppose due to the fact unemployment amongst blacks is around 14% that enthusiasm for blacks voting in 2012 is down from 2008 and that blacks vote about 75% of what they did in 2008.

Which Obama states, if any, would be at risk for Obama in this admittedly unlikely scenario?

   

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

NC. Other than that, not much else. Maybe VA.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

There'd be several states at risk due to reduction of black turnout. North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan and possibly others.

But black turnout won't decrease enough to put most of these states at risk.

[後援会]

Obama is not going to take NC unless he wins by like 4% nationwide or more. So NC is turning solid red. And Virginia is probably flipping red. And PA is obviously endangered. Other than that, I'm not seeing many other places on the electoral map switch.

[retromike22]

I feel that even if the black vote is down, there will be a higher Hispanic vote to more than compensate for that.

[memphis]

The white vote is going to be way down in 2012 as well. Rpmney isn't exactly Mr Popularity either. Just something to consider.

[Lіef]

African-Americans are going to come out in full force to re-elect the first black president and prevent a Mormon aristocrat who wants to raise most of their taxes and is running a sickeningly racist campaign from becoming president.

[Frodo]

You might also want to consider that -due to recent events- a considerable portion of (white) social conservatives might not turn out for Romney and Ryan.  

[Tender Branson]

It's likely that Blacks will turn out very strongly again for Obama. Probably also Hispanics.

The question will be Whites. Obama needs about 38-40% of them to win the NPV, if Blacks and Hispanics and Asians turn out by similar margins like in 2008.

[Talleyrand]

The only one I could see flipping because of reduced participation is North Carolina. Obama only won there because Black turnout actually exceeded the mean turnout.

[J. J.]

It's likely that Blacks will turn out very strongly again for Obama. Probably also Hispanics.

The question will be Whites. Obama needs about 38-40% of them to win the NPV, if Blacks and Hispanics and Asians turn out by similar margins like in 2008.

I think black turnout will be lower in 2012 for two reasons:

1.  The novelty is gone.  "We can do it, again," just isn't as good as "We can do it."

2.  Obama has not made a positive difference in the lives of black people (or white people, Hispanics, or Asians).  Expectations were high; there will be some disillusionment.

[Mynheer Peeperkorn von Thurn und Taxis-Hohenlohe]

Considering that Romney will put them all back in chains let's hope that Africanamerican turnout is at least fine.

[後援会]

Black turnout will be very high. Turnout among white Republicans will be very high. Where we'll see the drop in turnout will probably be among white democrats and hispanics. Lower hispanic turnout is the only reason Colorado isn't solid blue, and lower white democrat turnout + higher black democrat turnout is why Wisconsin and Virginia are competitive (instead being fairly blue and fairly red respectively).

[Sibboleth]

The obsession of certain white Republicans (tautology alert, but whatever) with the perfectly rational voting behavior of black Americans is quite a curious thing, is it not?

[後援会]

The obsession of certain white Republicans (tautology alert, but whatever) with the perfectly rational voting behavior of black Americans is quite a curious thing, is it not?

I'm not a white Republican. But hey, you're welcome to try to give me a retroactive race lift - it's always amusing to see.

[asexual trans victimologist]

The obsession of certain white Republicans (tautology alert, but whatever) with the perfectly rational voting behavior of black Americans is quite a curious thing, is it not?

I'm not a white Republican. But hey, you're welcome to try to give me a retroactive race lift - it's always amusing to see.

I think Al might've been referring to J.J.

[shua]

The obsession of certain white Republicans (tautology alert, but whatever) with the perfectly rational voting behavior of black Americans is quite a curious thing, is it not?

perfectly rational? as rational as anyone else, yes.

[J. J.]

The obsession of certain white Republicans (tautology alert, but whatever) with the perfectly rational voting behavior of black Americans is quite a curious thing, is it not?

I'm not a white Republican. But hey, you're welcome to try to give me a retroactive race lift - it's always amusing to see.

I think Al might've been referring to J.J.

Ah, I'm not entirely white.

Actually, by 3:00 PM on election day, I should have a good idea who will carry PA.

[Sibboleth]

perfectly rational?

Figure of speech, so to speak. Or, rather, write.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Ah, I'm not entirely white.

Actually, by 3:00 PM on election day, I should have a good idea who will carry PA.

This may be your most J. J. post ever.

[Sibboleth]

Ah, I'm not entirely white.

Actually, by 3:00 PM on election day, I should have a good idea who will carry PA.

This may be your most J. J. post ever.

It is the epitome of J. J.ism. It is his Hamlet.

[Minnesota Mike]

The sense I get is that while there may not be the newness or historical significance of 2008 African Americans will have President Obama's back and turn out.

FWIW in a couple battleground states (Florida, North Carolina) that track voter registration by race as well as by party,  registrations of Blacks and Hispanics are growing at faster pace than that of whites. If anything I would guess minorities make up a larger share of the electorate in 2012 than they did in 2008.

[Senator Sbane]

My guess will is that minorities will make up about 28% of the electorate in 2012 as opposed to 26% in 2008. Most of that increase will be with Hispanics, Asians and mixed race people though and they are most likely to swing against Obama.

[timothyinMD]

Obama will get 97% of the black votes again.  More importantly Obama's share of the white vote will drop to a historic low for the Democratic nominee

[後援会]

Obama will get 97% of the black votes again.  More importantly Obama's share of the white vote will drop to a historic low for the Democratic nominee

Hey, he only got 94% or something in 2008. I think Romney could manage maybe 8% of the black vote.

And Obama wouldn't be at a historic low. Now, he would be at a historic low for a winning nominee if he wins, but current polling has Obama actually doing slightly better among whites than Walter Mondale.