When Do Democrats Get the House Back?

[Mr.Phips]

probably in the next GOP presidency midterm.

I used to think that, but I don't know anymore.  When the bottom fell out for Bush, he had ~30% approval.  A GOP president with average 50/50 approval or even 45% approval may not put enough of those R+3-4 seats in danger.  By contrast, a Democratic president even at 50/50 approval would be in danger of losing a House majority because a solid majority of districts would narrowly disapprove.

I actually think the best bet pre-2022 is riding the coattails of a D president with a solid 10% PV win.

If that's the case, then why didnt Democrats lose the House or at least a hell of a lot more seats in 1978 when Carter was below 50%?  Democrats held on to or picked up dozens of seats that year that not only went for Ford in 1976, but did so by double digits. 

[adma]

2018 perhaps, why is everyone saying 2022? That seems too far away!

Current district lines strongly favor the GOP and won't change until after the 2020 Census.

People were saying the same thing in 2002 and 2004, and for good reason, and then 2006 happened. 

That's exactly what I mean by "gerrymander, schmerrymander".  And remember that 2004 was compounded by the mini-me gerrymanders in GA and TX...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Gerrymandered district lines will be their most effective in 2012, and slowly start to lose efficacy as more elections roll around (and, more specifically, demographic shifts happen). With the right candidates (and wrong Republicans), Democrats could break through in 2016. And, if an unpopular Republican wins the 2016 race, then the Dems will have a terrific shot at the House in 2018.

[Skill and Chance]

Gerrymandered district lines will be their most effective in 2012, and slowly start to lose efficacy as more elections roll around (and, more specifically, demographic shifts happen). With the right candidates (and wrong Republicans), Democrats could break through in 2016. And, if an unpopular Republican wins the 2016 race, then the Dems will have a terrific shot at the House in 2018.

But the thing is, the Democratic coalition is shifting toward being more, not less packed.  The Obama 2008-Romney 2012 areas are all outer suburbs and rural areas.  A lot of the urban areas went from 75% to 80%.  The only really promising areas for additional house gains are Florida, the rural West and some suburban VA districts that probably weren't gerrymandered enough. 

[Mr.Phips]

Gerrymandered district lines will be their most effective in 2012, and slowly start to lose efficacy as more elections roll around (and, more specifically, demographic shifts happen). With the right candidates (and wrong Republicans), Democrats could break through in 2016. And, if an unpopular Republican wins the 2016 race, then the Dems will have a terrific shot at the House in 2018.

But the thing is, the Democratic coalition is shifting toward being more, not less packed.  The Obama 2008-Romney 2012 areas are all outer suburbs and rural areas.  A lot of the urban areas went from 75% to 80%.  The only really promising areas for additional house gains are Florida, the rural West and some suburban VA districts that probably weren't gerrymandered enough. 

The suburban PA districts would be ripe for Dem pickups, as well as a few in New York and a couple in Michigan. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Gerrymandered district lines will be their most effective in 2012, and slowly start to lose efficacy as more elections roll around (and, more specifically, demographic shifts happen). With the right candidates (and wrong Republicans), Democrats could break through in 2016. And, if an unpopular Republican wins the 2016 race, then the Dems will have a terrific shot at the House in 2018.

But the thing is, the Democratic coalition is shifting toward being more, not less packed.  The Obama 2008-Romney 2012 areas are all outer suburbs and rural areas.  A lot of the urban areas went from 75% to 80%.  The only really promising areas for additional house gains are Florida, the rural West and some suburban VA districts that probably weren't gerrymandered enough. 

The suburban PA districts would be ripe for Dem pickups, as well as a few in New York and a couple in Michigan. 

Suburban PA, though leaning Democratic at a federal level, is still mostly Republican in local races (affluent, socially moderate whites). They go gaga for Christie types.

[adma]

But the thing is, the Democratic coalition is shifting toward being more, not less packed.  The Obama 2008-Romney 2012 areas are all outer suburbs and rural areas.  A lot of the urban areas went from 75% to 80%.  The only really promising areas for additional house gains are Florida, the rural West and some suburban VA districts that probably weren't gerrymandered enough. 

Then again, for all we know, we could be looking at Obama 2008-Romney 2012-Clinton 2016-type-districts--well, under the overzealous hypothesis that HRC will be the Dem nominee in 2016.  Or at least someone with more of a "HRC 2008" base (i.e. more Blue Dog populist appeal than Obama)