Vosem's 2014 Senate Elections Analysis

[Talleyrand]

Very realistic ratings. I think you're being too optimistic about Franken's chances in Minnesota and overestimating the strength of the WV Dems, Capito running or not. Look at the gubernatorial race last year. And I think Pryor or not, that senate seat is gone, barring an unpopular Romney presidency.

[Talleyrand]

Oregon Senate

Republicans have a good chance of winning one statewide office this year in Bruce Starr, a young State Senator from a Dem-leaning district who is challenging the lackluster Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian and leads in polling. Walden is unlikely to run due to his rise in House GOP Ranks, plus his voting record doesn't seem to fit the state. The 2010 GOP gubernatorial nominee, Chris Dudley, would be an excellent candidate, but he left the state. With someone like Huffman, it's safe Dem.

I don't know if Gordon Smith is interested in returning to politics, but he'd definitely make it a certain Tossup, maybe even Tilt R.