Biggest Senate upsets since 1978

[Mr.Phips]

In 1978, there were several upsets that almost nobody saw coming.  One was Gordon Humphrey's defeat Tom McIntyre in New Hampshire.  McIntyre was above 50% and leading by 20+ points right up until the polls closed.  However, Humphrey ended up winning by two points.

Another big upset that year was Roger Jepsen's defeat of incumbent Dick Clark in Iowa.  Clark was ahead by double digits right up until the end.  However, Jepsen won narrowly.

The final big upset that year was incumbent Charles Percy's win over challenger Alex Seith in Illinois.  Not only did Seith lead Percy in final polls, but he was often above 50%.  Somehow, the polls were totally wrong and Percy won narrowly.

In October 1984, Mitch McConnell was trailing incumbent Walter Huddleston in Kentucky by almost 30 points, with Huddleston close to 60% in the polls. However, a late shift and Reagan's coattails allowed McConnell to pull off a huge upset that even Republicans were shocked by.

In the fall of 1988, Senator John Melcher of Montana was ahead of Conrad Burns by about 20 points, hovering around the 50% mark or a little above.  However, a late surge and a campaign appearance by George Bush allowed him to unseat the incumbent by a 52%-48% margin in a race that really shocked a lot of election watchers.  I remember the news outlets actually calling this race for Burns with about 20% reporting based on exit pols with Melcher actually in the lead until about 50% reported.

The last big upset I can think of is Saxby Chambliss' 53%-46% win over Max Cleland when no poll showed him ahead.  Most polls showed Cleland ahead by high single digits and in the high 40's.  Polling appeared to overestimate black turnout and underestimate Republican turnout in the suburbs.   

[Vosem]

Harry Reid's 2010 victory was pretty unexpected, as was Bill Frist's defeat of Jim Sasser in 1994.

[MilesC56]

John Edwards defeating Lauch Faircloth in 1998 was considered a mild upset, IIRC.

[後援会]

Harry Reid's 2010 victory was pretty unexpected, as was Bill Frist's defeat of Jim Sasser in 1994.

A lot of people called Reid triumphing. Myself including, but also several local LV columnists.

[MilesC56]

Harry Reid's 2010 victory was pretty unexpected, as was Bill Frist's defeat of Jim Sasser in 1994.

A lot of people called Reid triumphing. Myself including, but also several local LV columnists.

Still, Angle seemed to have the momentum going into the final weeks.

I remember when they called that race...I was yelling "Harry Reid won!!" to my roommate (who didn't have a clue who Harry Reid was).

[Mr.Phips]

John Edwards defeating Lauch Faircloth in 1998 was considered a mild upset, IIRC.

Most observers actually expected Faircloth to lose by October.  He was starting to trail in polls and even fired his pollster. 

[Mr.Phips]

Harry Reid's 2010 victory was pretty unexpected, as was Bill Frist's defeat of Jim Sasser in 1994.

Frist clearly had the momentum in the final week and even started leading Sasser in many polls.  It was the margin that shocked everybody. 

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

Not quite an upset, but Begich winning by only 1% was unexpected.

Bennet getting over the line was an upset to some extent too.

[Keystone Phil]

Rick Santorum's win by 0.00003% over Bob Casey in 2006 after trailing in every poll by an average of 29 points.

[RogueBeaver]

Rick Santorum's win by 0.00003% over Bob Casey in 2006 after trailing in every poll by an average of 29 points.

Another one was Webb in '06, even post-macaca a few people were surprised.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Al Franken in 2008?

[Vosem]

Al Franken in 2008?

All the polling showed Franken and Coleman basically tied, but, yes, some people expected an extremely small (like, 1% margin) Coleman victory.

[Harry]

Harry Reid's 2010 victory was pretty unexpected

Actually, lots of people on this forum (myself included) called that one.  And I'm not just talking about Democratic hacks -- the only one I missed in '10 was that I had CO as a Republican pickup.

[Talleyrand]

David Vitter avoiding the runoff in 2004?

[Senator Ben]

Actually, lots of people on this forum (myself included) called that one.  And I'm not just talking about Democratic hacks -- the only one I missed in '10 was that I had CO as a Republican pickup.

Same.

[Vosem]

Wasn't Chuck Robb's victory in 1994 also pretty unexpected?

[RogueBeaver]

Wasn't Chuck Robb's victory in 1994 also pretty unexpected?

Against Oliver North with a centrist Republican running as an indie, Nancy Reagan blasting North and John Warner endorsing Robb?

[Vosem]

Wasn't Chuck Robb's victory in 1994 also pretty unexpected?

Against Oliver North with a centrist Republican running as an indie, Nancy Reagan blasting North and John Warner endorsing Robb?

OK, then, apparently not. I must be misremembering

[Pacific Justice IBDD]

Wasn't Chuck Robb's victory in 1994 also pretty unexpected?

Against Oliver North with a centrist Republican running as an indie, Nancy Reagan blasting North and John Warner endorsing Robb?

OK, then, apparently not. I must be misremembering

John Warner actually endorsed Marshall Coleman the independent candidate who was a former republican

[Ogre Mage]

Assuming we are talking non-primaries --

Kay Hagan defeating Elizabeth Dole in 2008 was a pretty big one.  I never saw it coming and think very few did until the 11th hour.

Scott Brown upsetting Martha Coakley in the 2009 MA special election.

Former Washington Sen. Slade Gorton was involved in two big upsets.  In the 1980 Reagan Revolution, then AG Gorton upset the legendary Sen. Warren Magnuson.  Twenty years later, Gorton (at the height of his power in Congress) was upset by Maria Cantwell.  At the time, I believe Cantwell's defeat of Gorton in 2000 was the closest (2,229 votes) in U.S. Senate history.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Assuming we are talking non-primaries --

Kay Hagan defeating Elizabeth Dole in 2008 was a pretty big one.  I never saw it coming and think very few did until the 11th hour.

Scott Brown upsetting Martha Coakley in the 2009 MA special election.

Former Washington Sen. Slade Gorton was involved in two big upsets.  In the 1980 Reagan Revolution, then AG Gorton upset the legendary Sen. Warren Magnuson.  Twenty years later, Gorton (at the height of his power in Congress) was upset by Maria Cantwell.  At the time, I believe Cantwell's defeat of Gorton in 2000 was the closest (2,229 votes) in U.S. Senate history.

It was a landslide compared to this one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_1974

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Frank Lautenberg beating Millicent Fenwick in NJ in 1982 was a big upset I believe.  Herman Talmadge's loss in GA 1980 was an upset too; pundits I've read had him as one of the safer Democrats up for reelection that year.

[freepcrusher]

wasn't Talmadge very corrupt?

[OC]

2004 Maj L Daschle, surprising that a sitting opposition leading is defeating for reelection and IL 2010, Kirk winning Obama's ol' senate seat. Shoe-in for Democrats.

[Former Moderate]

Frank Lautenberg beating Millicent Fenwick in NJ in 1982 was a big upset I believe.

It was in the sense that Millicent Fenwick was considered unbeatable at the start of the campaign. As things went on, Lautenberg continued to flood the race with his own cash and negative ads. Fenwick refused to take PAC money, and was ultimately defeated because of it.

It's one of the saddest upsets in American politics, because Fenwick would have been an absolutely legendary senator. Lautenberg certainly isn't.