Biggest Senate upsets since 1978

[freepcrusher]

Frank Lautenberg beating Millicent Fenwick in NJ in 1982 was a big upset I believe.

It was in the sense that Millicent Fenwick was considered unbeatable at the start of the campaign. As things went on, Lautenberg continued to flood the race with his own cash and negative ads. Fenwick refused to take PAC money, and was ultimately defeated because of it.

It's one of the saddest upsets in American politics, because Fenwick would have been an absolutely legendary senator. Lautenberg certainly isn't.

Fenwick was already quite old anyways so I doubt she would have lasted more than a term.

[Mr.Phips]

2004 Maj L Daschle, surprising that a sitting opposition leading is defeating for reelection and IL 2010, Kirk winning Obama's ol' senate seat. Shoe-in for Democrats.

Daschle was behind in pretty much every poll after September and was considered more likely than not to lose by election day.  Kirk was ahead in most polls, although Obama could have done a lot more to help Giannaoulias.  No excuse for that loss. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Frank Lautenberg beating Millicent Fenwick in NJ in 1982 was a big upset I believe.

It was in the sense that Millicent Fenwick was considered unbeatable at the start of the campaign. As things went on, Lautenberg continued to flood the race with his own cash and negative ads. Fenwick refused to take PAC money, and was ultimately defeated because of it.

It's one of the saddest upsets in American politics, because Fenwick would have been an absolutely legendary senator. Lautenberg certainly isn't.

Fenwick was already quite old anyways so I doubt she would have lasted more than a term.

Well, yes, Fenwick died about 6 years after the 1982 election, so she most definitely would have served only one term. But she still would have been a star. Heck, in 1982, she already was.

[RogueBeaver]

Scott Brown's 2010 victory? That was predicted by the final week but certainly not at the beginning.

[sg0508]

1) The conservative Peter Fitzgerald defeating Moseley-Braun in IL in 1998? Actually, you could say he almost blew that one. One more week and Moseley-Braun, who had all the momentum in the last two weeks probably overtakes him. Still though, a conservative republican winning a senate seat in IL? Unlikely.

2) Saxby Chambliss defeating Max Cleland in GA in 2002 was not expected.

3) Maria Cantwell knocking out Slade Gorton in WA state in 2000. At the beginning of that race (despite Gorton's relatively weak win compared to the rest of the GOP in '94), most thought Gorton would win.

4) Stabenow's victory over Spence Abraham in 2000.

[Mr.Phips]

1) The conservative Peter Fitzgerald defeating Moseley-Braun in IL in 1998? Actually, you could say he almost blew that one. One more week and Moseley-Braun, who had all the momentum in the last two weeks probably overtakes him. Still though, a conservative republican winning a senate seat in IL? Unlikely.

2) Saxby Chambliss defeating Max Cleland in GA in 2002 was not expected.

3) Maria Cantwell knocking out Slade Gorton in WA state in 2000. At the beginning of that race (despite Gorton's relatively weak win compared to the rest of the GOP in '94), most thought Gorton would win.

4) Stabenow's victory over Spence Abraham in 2000.

The only thing surprising about the Mosely-Braun loss was that she almost won.  She was behind by double digits for most of September and October, although the final Zogby poll put her ahead 45%-42%.

Gordon's loss wasnt that surprising. Most fall polls showed the race pretty tight.

The 2000 Michigan race was one that closed fast in the final week and Stabanow was almost certainly pulled accross the finish line by Gore's larger than expected victory in the state. 

[sg0508]

1) The conservative Peter Fitzgerald defeating Moseley-Braun in IL in 1998? Actually, you could say he almost blew that one. One more week and Moseley-Braun, who had all the momentum in the last two weeks probably overtakes him. Still though, a conservative republican winning a senate seat in IL? Unlikely.

2) Saxby Chambliss defeating Max Cleland in GA in 2002 was not expected.

3) Maria Cantwell knocking out Slade Gorton in WA state in 2000. At the beginning of that race (despite Gorton's relatively weak win compared to the rest of the GOP in '94), most thought Gorton would win.

4) Stabenow's victory over Spence Abraham in 2000.

The only thing surprising about the Mosely-Braun loss was that she almost won.  She was behind by double digits for most of September and October, although the final Zogby poll put her ahead 45%-42%.

Gordon's loss wasnt that surprising. Most fall polls showed the race pretty tight.

The 2000 Michigan race was one that closed fast in the final week and Stabanow was almost certainly pulled accross the finish line by Gore's larger than expected victory in the state. 

And that's why it's always dangerous for the minority party in a state because the "home team" always tends to come home in the end and that's exactly what happened in IL in '98. Plus, Fitzgerald's lack of face time with the public didn't help him one bit and Carol had the full backing of Bill and Hillary Clinton who were VERY popular in IL in the late 90s.

Gorton found out that his strategy to ignore King County, which to this day tends to kill the GOP there didn't work. 

[User157088589849]

Has to be allen losing to webb.

[sg0508]

Has to be allen losing to webb.

That's a good one, but even mid-summer, Allen (before his off-color comments) was only up by around 10 pts and Webb was in striking distance.