WaPo/ABC News: Romney pulls slightly ahead in pre-convention poll

[Tender Branson]

Obama actually leads 49-42 among all adults.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20120825.html

[Marokai Backbeat]

Mitt Romney has strong personal character? In what universe can that argument be made?

[tmthforu94]

Very good to see!

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Does "all adults" indicate that they poll people who aren't even registered?  I forget.

[MorningInAmerica]

The partisan make - up of this poll sample is D+9.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Does "all adults" indicate that they poll people who aren't even registered?  I forget.

Yes.

It's apparently 49-47 R/O among likely voters.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

This poll is weird, Obama's approval rating is +4 (50-46) up from -2 (47-49) last month. Yet he still is running behind his approval rating? I've heard of running ahead, but behind?
And apparently there was no Ryan bounce for Romney either. Last month they were tied 47-47. Obama just fell -1, statistically insignificant. So, like everyone's been saying, a pretty static race.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

This poll is weird, Obama's approval rating is +4 (50-46) up from -2 (47-49) last month. Yet he still is running behind his approval rating? I've heard of running ahead, but behind?

That's among all adults - among registered voters, it's 47/50 approval/disapproval. This has more.

It's not uncommon to run behind approval. Bush did in '04, if you go by exit polls, and Clinton did in '96, though that was a three-way race. I believe LBJ did as well.

[Adam Griffin]

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Still a net gain for Obama, but Romney is on the up and up. In the approval rating department, though, Obama has went from 47% in July to 50% in this poll. People with no opinion remained the same, with those gains coming from former disapprovers.

People's anxiety with what Romney would do over the next four years is also higher than that of Obama's (57/63).

[Hash]

Mitt Romney has strong personal character? In what universe can that argument be made?

Voters are idiot, example #6,972,114

[Supersonic]

D+9 sample and Romney leads. Excellent.

[MorningInAmerica]

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Polling on this question seems to be all over the place, as Quinnipiac found Romney far behind Obama on the Medicare issue.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Mitt Romney has strong personal character? In what universe can that argument be made?

My first thoughts, exactly.

[MorningInAmerica]

Ha. And my favorite part of this poll:

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[fezzyfestoon]

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Polling on this question seems to be all over the place, as Quinnipiac found Romney far behind Obama on the Medicare issue.

Because people have no idea how to answer. The coverage of policy affecting Medicare is horrible, you can't blame them for being all over the place.

[Tender Branson]

The partisan make - up of this poll sample is D+9.

Yes, for the adult poll.

[krazen1211]

Splendid news!

Obama hack and slash and burn campaign can certainly depress his turnout.

[MorningInAmerica]

Partisan ID of the Registered Voter sample is D+7

Ed Morrissey has an interesting take on the poll. http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/27/romney-up-1-in-new-wapoabc-poll-4746/

[Beet]

Obama needs to tackle the economy and deficit issues head on. They are just too big to simply try and kick up dust around using social issues, Medicare, or Romney's tax returns and Bain Capital activities. It's not that he's necessarily going to "win" on handling the economy, but there's a case to be made there.

Of course, that's what I would do if I was on their team. It may just be a matter of having no choice but to talk more about it.

[Sbane]

The partisan make - up of this poll sample is D+9.

Something I noticed is that the number of independents is high and the amount of democrats and republicans is lower than in other polls. Just who are these independents? Something to keep in mind.

[The Vorlon]

The partisan make - up of this poll sample is D+9.

Something I noticed is that the number of independents is high and the amount of democrats and republicans is lower than in other polls. Just who are these independents? Something to keep in mind.

The partisan ID question is always an interesting one.

If you just ask the question straight out, a lot of independents who actually lean one way or the other will say their are independent, but if you push then a good chunk will express a party preference.

A baseline I think is useful this year is to use the 2008 and 2004 exit polls.

In 2004 the partisan ID of folks who actually voted was almost exactly even between Republicans and Dems - depending on which data set you use it was either even or GOP +1.

In 2008 it was Dems +7.

I think GOP +1 to Dems +7 pretty much defines the other limits of where polling should be in 2012.

I doubt ANYBODY sane will suggest Obama is in better shape now than in 2008, and I doubt we will see a GOP +1 either....

[J. J.]

Obama needs to tackle the economy and deficit issues head on. They are just too big to simply try and kick up dust around using social issues, Medicare, or Romney's tax returns and Bain Capital activities. It's not that he's necessarily going to "win" on handling the economy, but there's a case to be made there.

Of course, that's what I would do if I was on their team. It may just be a matter of having no choice but to talk more about it.

There were some suggestions of a convention mea culpa, but:

A.  I doubt that he'll do it.

B.  I doubt if it will work.

[Associate Justice PiT]

The partisan make - up of this poll sample is D+9.

Something I noticed is that the number of independents is high and the amount of democrats and republicans is lower than in other polls. Just who are these independents? Something to keep in mind.

The partisan ID question is always an interesting one.

If you just ask the question straight out, a lot of independents who actually lean one way or the other will say their are independent, but if you push then a good chunk will express a party preference.

A baseline I think is useful this year is to use the 2008 and 2004 exit polls.

In 2004 the partisan ID of folks who actually voted was almost exactly even between Republicans and Dems - depending on which data set you use it was either even or GOP +1.

In 2008 it was Dems +7.

I think GOP +1 to Dems +7 pretty much defines the other limits of where polling should be in 2012.

I doubt ANYBODY sane will suggest Obama is in better shape now than in 2008, and I doubt we will see a GOP +1 either....

     It's a fair notion. Based on my impression of the campaign year so far, we might be looking at an average of 2004 and 2008 numbers, so roughly D+3 overall. It just doesn't seem like either party has a really substantial advantage in terms of public perception.