LibDem fuzzy electoral maths...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is quite amusing...

The LibDems have said that the "student vote" can swing the following seats to them:

Bristol West, Cardiff Central, Leeds North West, Cambridge, Manchester Gorton, Sheffield Central, Oxford East, Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central, Liverpool Riverside, Holborn and St Pancras, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Manchester Withington, Islington South and Finsbury, Birmingham Yardley, Surrey South West, Taunton, Orpington, Haltemprice and Howden, Eastbourne, Isle of Wight, Dorset West, Bournemouth East, Wells, Canterbury, Cities of London and Westminster, Bournemouth West, Westmorland and Lonsdale.

Why is this amusing? Because... it assumes that every single student in all of the above constituencies is:

1. Registered to vote (a lot of students can't be bothered... it may even be a majority)
2. Registered in the constituency they go to Uni in (most actually register in the constituency their parents live in)
3. Will actually vote (turnout among students is always pathetically low. We're talking 30% or so here folks...)
4. Will vote LibDem (according to a poll by either mori or icm, 37% of those who vote will vote LibDem. That poll significantly underpolled people going to old Techs and significantly overpolled people going to the posher Uni's)

Who said intellectual dishonesty is dead?

[Peter]

To be fair, they will win a few of those seats, but it has nothing to do with a big change in the student vote. They'll probably get Bristol West, Cardiff Central, Oldham East & Saddleworth, Islington South & Finsbury, Brum Yardley, Surrey SW, Taunton, Orpington, Haltemprice & Howden, Eastbourne, Dorset West. This mostly has to do with national electoral swings from Conservative to Lib Dem.

Oxford East - What students?? Most of the students in Oxford live in Oxford West; Oxford East is mostly estates for the people that work in the car plants and for the science parks. Those that do live in the East constituency are Brookes students, and their turnout is probably in the 20s.

Cambridge - Oh do get real

Manchester Gorton - I beg your pardon.

Canterbury - This is absolutely fantasy lala land now

Cities of London & Westminster - Do they have any sort of intellectual credibility after offering up suggestions like this?

[afleitch]

They used to say that about Galloway's (spit) Glasgow Central seat, which spans not one but three universities and campuses. With new boundaries the Lib Dems will never take it now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They used to say that about Galloway's (spit) Glasgow Central seat, which spans not one but three universities and campuses. With new boundaries the Lib Dems will never take it now.

They added Govan IIRC... not exactly liberal friendly territory...

[Silent Hunter]

Didn't the Liberals run a poster last time showing the fair chunk of the country yellow, based on a poll that said 33% would vote LD if they thought they could win?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The tuition fees issue has gone down like a lead balloon amongst politically active students, and I won't be surprised to see a significant increase in the Lib Dem's share of the student vote.

How many students are "politically active"? Not a lot and usually going to one of the posher Uni's... actually there's a big difference between students going to those Uni's and students going to old Techs... something that always gets ignored in discussions of the "student vote"... mainly because most political journos went to the former and have never set foot in the latter.
Damn snobbery

[Rural Radical]

If you fancy a laugh check out the www.ukelect.co.uk january election prediction. They reckon that 20% of non labour voters will tacticly vote anti labour. The amount of LibDem Gains is unrealistic.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Didn't the Liberals run a poster last time showing the fair chunk of the country yellow, based on a poll that said 33% would vote LD if they thought they could win?

This one?



A tad optimistic perhaps?  I remember during the 2001 campaign I was trying to convince my mother to vote for the local Lib Dem candidate over the Tory, Virginia Bottomley.  She wasn't a great deal bothered either way, but opted for Bottomley because she liked her, and because she didn't want to vote for a party that she didn't think could win.  This struck me as incredibly odd.  We all knew that the Tories had no chance of winning the general election either, so a vote for Bottomley would have been just as wasted.  In our constituency the battle was strictly two-way between the leading minority parties.  My point is, if only people could understand the FPTP system better, they'd know how best to cast their vote, and not just vote for either Labour or Conservative because 'they're the only choices'.

I DONT KNOW WETHER TO LAUGH OR BE TERRIFIED AT THAT PICTURE