The Philippines is a Rising Tiger in Southeast Asia

[Frodo]

Things are going well in our former colony, it seems:

Philippines set to become Asia's next economic bright spot

By FLOYD WHALEY
The New York Times
Originally published Saturday, September 1, 2012 at 6:01 AM

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[後援会]

Now, as much as I want the Philippines to succeed, I'm going to be a little skeptical here. At the end of World War II, plenty of people predicted that the Philippines would become the economic powerhouse/regional power of the Asia-Pacific region because it by far was the wealthiest country (per person) in Asia. Burma being second.

Now, I'm not too knowledgeable about the Filipino society/economy, so I'm not exactly too sure why the Philippines failed to launch. And perhaps those reasons really are gone now. But for now, I'm going to stay somewhat skeptical of very bold predictions about the Philippines.

[opebo]

It is a common topic of discussion here in Thailand that Siam/Thailand used to be considerably 'behind' Philippines in development, but is now far, far ahead.

Most Thai analysts put it down to primarily family planning - which has been extremely effective here but not there (though I personally think this is only a fairly small part of the equation.)

[Beet]

The Philippines has been a chronic underperformer for decades. However, besides underperformance economically, it has always stood out as one of the sole major East Asian countries where the birth rate hasn't fallen below replacement level. Perhaps the country's Catholic orientation has something to do with that, but since the conventional wisdom these days appears to be that the demographic dividend is a sort of destiny, it will have that going for it, at least.

[opebo]

...it has always stood out as one of the sole major East Asian countries where the birth rate hasn't fallen below replacement level. Perhaps the country's Catholic orientation has something to do with that, but since the conventional wisdom these days appears to be that the demographic dividend is a sort of destiny, it will have that going for it, at least.

Yeah oddly enough the case for family planning seems to be being refuted now.  Thailand for sure has a labor shortage that is sucking in huge numbers from Burma, Cambodia, Laos, and it faces a fairly poor capability to deal with a rapidly aging population, given that it is only a middle-income country.

But most Thai commentators on the disparity with Philippines say that the lowering of population growth from 1950s to 2000 was a major help to the standard of living here, and the ability of the government to provide some moderate level of public services to people.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Like The Taiwan Company and South Korea, Inc., I doubt this is sustainable growth stemming from policies which benefit more than 1% of the population.

[Vosem]

Past performance is not indicative of future results, guys.

Like The Taiwan Company and South Korea, Inc., I doubt this is sustainable growth stemming from policies which benefit more than 1% of the population.

Because Taiwan and South Korea are horrible, horrible places to live.

[後援会]

Because Taiwan and South Korea are horrible, horrible places to live.

B-b-but! Having a lower income inequality and much higher average income than Europe means that they are HELL ON EARTH.

[Sbane]

Obviously Taiwan and South Korea are going to slow down in their growth since their economy has matured. They are both countries that are more developed than a lot of their Asian neighbors.

That being said, Koenkai, I am pretty sure their income is not higher than Europe...even including eastern Europe.

[後援会]

Obviously Taiwan and South Korea are going to slow down in their growth since their economy has matured. They are both countries that are more developed than a lot of their Asian neighbors.

That being said, Koenkai, I am pretty sure their income is not higher than Europe...even including eastern Europe.

Depends whether we're adjusting with PPP or not. If we adjust with purchasing power parity, Taiwan is nustled with Germany, Belgium, and Denmark. While South Korea is slightly above the EU average.

And you would think their growth would slow down because of their demographic problems. But Citibank doesn't think so. Taiwan especially won't, simply because proximity to the mainland gives it huge opportunities.

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[minionofmidas]

Anyone who's doing such calculations for events 20 years or more in the future is evidently scamming the crazy person he's being employed by.

That said, the Philippines never had much of a chance afte 45 because they remained, economically, a colony.

[Sbane]

Obviously Taiwan and South Korea are going to slow down in their growth since their economy has matured. They are both countries that are more developed than a lot of their Asian neighbors.

That being said, Koenkai, I am pretty sure their income is not higher than Europe...even including eastern Europe.

Depends whether we're adjusting with PPP or not. If we adjust with purchasing power parity, Taiwan is nustled with Germany, Belgium, and Denmark. While South Korea is slightly above the EU average.

And you would think their growth would slow down because of their demographic problems. But Citibank doesn't think so. Taiwan especially won't, simply because proximity to the mainland gives it huge opportunities.

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I was talking about current events obviously. And in any case I wouldn't trust projections to 2050.

[opebo]

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Haha, if the US median income is $100,000+ in 2050 I'll eat my hat.  Or did they mean the average.

[Gustaf]

Like The Taiwan Company and South Korea, Inc., I doubt this is sustainable growth stemming from policies which benefit more than 1% of the population.

Lol, what? Come on, you can't actually be THIS retarded. Do you think that 99% of South Korea's population are not better off now compared to the 60s? Have you looked at any stats?

[後援会]

I was talking about current events obviously. And in any case I wouldn't trust projections to 2050.

Well, I don't trust the projections exactly either. But what they do show is that there is a general consensus that the economic trajectory of Taiwan/Korea is positive. I think that prediction is actually way too bullish (I'm actually an East Asia bear), but the trendline is still going to be positive. These countries are already significantly above the EU mean and this gap will probably only get larger as time goes on.