Obama will lose the election
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Author Topic: Obama will lose the election  (Read 23033 times)
ucscgaldamez
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« on: August 29, 2012, 12:30:25 AM »
« edited: August 29, 2012, 12:32:38 AM by ucscgaldamez »

I have been following the race closely and I have concluded that Romney will win the election unless some dramatic event unfolds and painting him as a rich plutocrat who doesn't relate to you will simply not cut it.

There is a lot of job anxiety out there and the economy headlines is not what Obama would like to see. I think Romney through the debates and the convention will convince enough swing voters to vote for him in states like Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Florida will vote by 3-4% for Romney. I see Obama holding Nevada and Virginia.  In the next few days we will see Romney leading Obama by 3% in LV models and even after the Obama convention, I don't see Obama getting much of a bump. The debates will likely seal Obama's fate and the election will finally settle at 50.5-49% for Romney.

There is not much enthusiasm for Obama. Even Obama supporters know that. Turnout will benefit Republicans in swing states and it will be enough to overcome Obama's ground game. Voter registration is lacking and the Obama campaign knows that as well.

I was hoping Obama would have switched Biden for Clinton as that would have given Democrats the enthusiasm needed to go out and vote for Obama. Democrats dislike Romney but wouldn't say they hate him as much as Bush.  I will still vote for Obama and hope that things turn around. But the fact is: He had four years and people don't really see much improvement in their lives. They are willing to give Romney a chance but I also think they won't much have much patience for him either. I don't personally see him doing much for this country. I also think he will be a one term president. It won't take long for people to dislike him as they did to Bush. Even now, people don't particularly like him.

It makes me think whether Democrats should have chosen Clinton instead. : )
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koenkai
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2012, 12:37:29 AM »

If Clinton was offered the VP spot, why would she accept? Playing second fiddle to a president who has generally constrained her at State.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2012, 12:37:39 AM »

I spent a long time thinking Obama would prevail, but I'm starting to legitimately believe, like you, that Obama will lose reelection.

He needs some good news, and economic indications suggest he may not be getting a good jobs report before the election. Americans don't seem to be too big on either candidate - Obama's charismatic appeal back in 2008 won't exactly be there this time around, as he has an actual record, not just campaign promises and some Senate votes.

I pretty much agree with your assessment on how the election will go down, except I think Virginia will go for Romney. I expect Romney to be ahead by 1-2 points on election day and overall somewhat favored to win, similar to what I believe Bush was in 2004 (I was only 10, so my memory isn't great), but I believe a lot of states will narrowly break for him over the President.

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koenkai
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2012, 12:49:34 AM »

At this point in time, I'd declare Romney the very slight favorite. But a lot of things could change. If Obama still keeps his +1.5% average in the polls by the third week of September, Obama would be very well the favorite. Largely because I think Romney's net convention bounce will be around 2%.

Also, I suspect the stock market will probably tank a little in September/October. Not enough to make a huge impact, but probably enough to push Romney over the edge.

Of course, if neither of these happen, Obama is probably winning.
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King
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2012, 12:53:02 AM »

This has been a very apathetic election and Romney's numbers always go up with the apathy.  Frankly, I can't see us one week out from a Presidential election and it still being this way.   In my eyes, Mitt Romney just isn't a candidate who wins a national election when people are actually paying attention.

Stats on jobs and such are not going to decide this race.  If you think they are, you know economics but you don't know people. 95% of voters on election day are going to be employed or on social security.  Votes are emotional.  

Swing voters are not the unemployed, they are the uninvolved.   They do not know the jobs reports of the last 12 months.  They do not study any of this.  They are not watching the Republican National Convention.  They are not watching the Democratic National Convention.

They will tune in mid October, watch a few ads during football games, and one of the debates at random and see that Mitt Romney is pretty smurfing weird and Barack Obama is still cool and also the President.  They will vote for the President.

I've never supported a losing candidate and unless the America I know has changed, I still won't.  Obama will have two terms.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2012, 12:56:03 AM »

The economy will have to probably deteriorate for him to lose. The problem is, the Republican Party is about to face a structural deficit of sorts with the demographics of this country. The party is getting whiter and the country is not. Bush got 45% of the hispanic vote in 2004 and now we're talking about the GOP getting 30% now. If the Democrats lock up the hispanics like they have the blacks, things will have to be awful for the GOP to win an election.

Right now, Obama can point to job and economic growth, to no credit of his own, but he can still claim it, and that will sway some voters. I think if Romney is able to hammer home on the economic conditions while not letting Obama distract us from the real issues at hand, and the tea party keeps their mouths shut and the GOP strays away from hating on the gays and whining about abortion, Romney could win. But a lot of people are supported by the government now, and they won't vote for the guy that is paying them. It's a fact.

I still view Obama has the favorite though. He should be down big right now and he isn't, which is not a good sign for Romney given he has outspent the president.
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BM
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2012, 01:04:10 AM »

The party isn't getting whiter. There are more important faces of color at this convention than ever before (ie not just tokens).

The country is getting less white though so the party that has always been the racist party in the modern era will lose some ground.

And the economy is deteriorated. And why should Romney be ahead after all the reasons you listed suggesting why he shouldn't? 
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koenkai
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« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2012, 01:06:30 AM »
« Edited: August 29, 2012, 01:10:06 AM by koenkai »

This election is not like other elections. For one, the amount of long-term unemployed is far far far larger than normal. And if we look at U-6 unemployment, we're looking at 16% or so either unemployed or underemployed.

It's true that 90%+ of people won't care about the economy. But most of them are either committed Democrats or Republicans (if not in name). Among people who have felt the squeeze and even among some of those who haven't, the economy is salient.

Plus, among that 7% or so of Americans that have negative impressions of both candidates and are undecided, a large proportion are economically distressed. And a lot simply don't care about politicians and their personalities. The economy is definitely a salient issue. Hell, I know someone who is fairly socially liberal, pro-choice, Obama 2008 voter and she thought Todd Akin was Romney's running mate. And what she basically said to me was, "Lots of restaurants I go to are closed down. Economy sucks. Guess I'm voting for the not-Obama."

But what people have to understand is that the economy is not 1980. It doesn't feel as bad as 1980 (though I believe it is worse). So this idea that "Obama should be behind" is just not true. We still have 2.2% GDP growth or something, relatively low inflation, etc. etc. The weak economy is enough to make the election competitive, but not enough to mean that Romney should be winning if he were a "better candidate".

Also, Obama has heavily outspent Romney. Heavily. Romney has heavily outraised Obama recently, but he can't spend any of it until after the RNC because they're in general election funds. I'm personally of the opinion that campaign spending isn't very important, but I wouldn't be surprised if being outspent cost Romney maybe .2%, and outspending Obama later might turn that into a .2% lead. Obviously, campaign spending doesn't do much in 95% of elections, but this one might be close enough for it to matter.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2012, 01:18:58 AM »

The party isn't getting whiter. There are more important faces of color at this convention than ever before (ie not just tokens).

The country is getting less white though so the party that has always been the racist party in the modern era will lose some ground.

And the economy is deteriorated. And why should Romney be ahead after all the reasons you listed suggesting why he shouldn't? 

Their elected body is not whiter but they are losing with minority voters. One could argue Obama being black is a big reason for it, and it could be true, but no one can argue the GOP is improving their standing with the hispanics and blacks.


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J. J.
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« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2012, 01:20:52 AM »

The party isn't getting whiter. There are more important faces of color at this convention than ever before (ie not just tokens).

The country is getting less white though so the party that has always been the racist party in the modern era will lose some ground.

Or politics will transcend race.  One of the things that can be said by former Obama voters is, "I can't be racist because I voted for Obama in 2008."  Of course, you can be, but that might be how a lot of people see it.

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If this becomes a job performance election, Obama loses.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2012, 01:31:49 AM »

I'm far from the first person to point this out, but this election is essentially 2004, but with the parties reversed and a lackluster economy taking the place of a sh[inks]y foreign policy situation as the defining issue of the day.  The Kerry-Romney candidate comparisons are obvious and already played out, but also don't forget that Kerry ran level nationally with Bush all summer, but Bush maintained modest leads in nearly all the swing states and eventually won by a whisker despite being a mediocre and vulnerable incumbent throughout.  I really do see history repeating.
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King
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« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2012, 01:46:25 AM »

Also the big claim on Kerry was that he could go toe to toe on foreign policy with Bush because of his credentials.  That's like Romney and the economy.  Except with even less charisma and likability.
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jaichind
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« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2012, 01:50:30 AM »

If one looks at the conference board consumer confidence.

The Aug 2012 reading is 60.6. Jan-Aug 2012 averge is 65.5
The Aug 2008 reading is 58.6. Jan-Aug 2008 averge is 64.0
The Aug 2004 reading is 98.7. Jan-Aug 2004 averge is 96.0
The Aug 2000 reading is 140.8. Jan-Aug 2000 averge is 141.0
The Aug 1996 reading is 112.0. Jan-Aug 1996 averge is 101.53
The Aug 1992 reading is 59.0 Jan-Aug 1992 averge is 60.47
The Aug 1988 reading is 119.7 Jan-Aug 1988 averge is 115.29
The Aug 1984 reading is 103.1. Jan-Aug 1984 averge is 103.28
The Aug 1980 reading is 70.8. Jan-Aug 1980 averge is 69.36
The Aug 1976 reading is 94.6. Jan-Aug 1976 averge is 94.6
The Aug 1972 reading is 104.1. Jan-Aug 1972 averge is 97.93
The Aug 1968 reading is 131.3. Jan-Aug 1968 averge is 134.13

2012 is looking a lot like 1980 and 1992.  It does not look like 2004 and for
sure not 1984. It will be slightly better than 2010.  But
over the last few months this index has been trending down and could get worse
as food prices continue to surge.

The Aug 2012 reading is 53.2. Jan-Aug 2010 averge is 54.26













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King
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« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2012, 01:57:06 AM »
« Edited: August 29, 2012, 02:00:04 AM by King »

If one looks at the conference board consumer confidence.

The Aug 2012 reading is 60.6. Jan-Aug 2012 averge is 65.5
The Aug 2008 reading is 58.6. Jan-Aug 2008 averge is 64.0
The Aug 2004 reading is 98.7. Jan-Aug 2004 averge is 96.0
The Aug 2000 reading is 140.8. Jan-Aug 2000 averge is 141.0
The Aug 1996 reading is 112.0. Jan-Aug 1996 averge is 101.53
The Aug 1992 reading is 59.0 Jan-Aug 1992 averge is 60.47
The Aug 1988 reading is 119.7 Jan-Aug 1988 averge is 115.29
The Aug 1984 reading is 103.1. Jan-Aug 1984 averge is 103.28
The Aug 1980 reading is 70.8. Jan-Aug 1980 averge is 69.36
The Aug 1976 reading is 94.6. Jan-Aug 1976 averge is 94.6
The Aug 1972 reading is 104.1. Jan-Aug 1972 averge is 97.93
The Aug 1968 reading is 131.3. Jan-Aug 1968 averge is 134.13

2012 is looking a lot like 1980 and 1992.  It does not look like 2004 and for
sure not 1984. It will be slightly better than 2010.  But
over the last few months this index has been trending down and could get worse
as food prices continue to surge.

The Aug 2012 reading is 53.2. Jan-Aug 2010 averge is 54.2



And when the numbers were at their 140 peak, the incumbent party lost both times.  An economy good or bad does not make up for a poor candidate
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diskymike44
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« Reply #14 on: August 29, 2012, 03:06:22 AM »

Romney will not win.
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xavier110
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« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2012, 05:41:10 AM »

I just don't see Obama losing a 50.5-49.5 race. He still probably wins the electoral college in that scenario. I live in fear of Romney suddenly pulling away after the last debate... I don't see, if this  remains a deadlocked race, Obama losing.
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Sbane
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« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2012, 06:10:13 AM »

I have always felt Romney has a better chance than current polls might indicate. I don't subscribe to the whole "undecideds swing to the challenger" argument but such mass swings can happen. I think Obama needs to give a lot of these voters a reason to vote for him or they will stay home or reluctantly vote for Romney. If Romney does get elected he will have a very hard time. He will have basically no political capital, Democrats pissed after the antics of the Republican party in the last four years, and most importantly policies he has to favor due to the hard right stance of the Republicans but which has no broad based support amongst Americans.
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J. J.
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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2012, 10:02:19 AM »

I'm looking historically, not at the convention.  Obama numbers are significantly lower than GW Bush (2004), Clinton (1996), and Reagan (1984) at this point in the cycle.  Is it too low to win?  Well, maybe or maybe not.  I won't be looking until after the convention.

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Sbane
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« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2012, 10:15:21 AM »

I'm looking historically, not at the convention.  Obama numbers are significantly lower than GW Bush (2004), Clinton (1996), and Reagan (1984) at this point in the cycle.  Is it too low to win?  Well, maybe or maybe not.  I won't be looking until after the convention.

Is it really significantly lower than Bush? I doubt it is even lower than Bush to begin with. The difference is that Obama has a lot of downside possibilities while Bush didn't face that problem. If the economy stays fine, and we get 100k+ jobs numbers, Obama will win. I just don't know if that will continue.
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Peeperkorn
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« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2012, 10:39:01 AM »
« Edited: August 29, 2012, 10:41:15 AM by Mynheer Peeperkorn von Thurn und Taxis-Hohenlohe »

I have been following the race closely and I have concluded that Romney will win the election

That's great man.

Guess that now we can move on and discuss 2016 election.
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opebo
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« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2012, 10:52:12 AM »

I agree that he will lose, but I think we can identify two reasons why it isn't as clear as it should be: 1) demographic trends, particularly in the context of the electoral map, favor Democrats, and 2) Romney is a poor candidate, unappealing to most people.  He will still win because of the bad economy and racism, but what is making it close is the factors enumerated above.
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koenkai
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« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2012, 11:58:10 AM »

I'm looking historically, not at the convention.  Obama numbers are significantly lower than GW Bush (2004), Clinton (1996), and Reagan (1984) at this point in the cycle.  Is it too low to win?  Well, maybe or maybe not.  I won't be looking until after the convention.

They're probably higher than Bush. IIRC, Bush was slightly behind of Kerry for much of the campaign until convention bounce + switching to an LV model elevated him to a lead.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2012, 12:26:07 PM »

At this point in time, I'd declare Romney the very slight favorite. But a lot of things could change. If Obama still keeps his +1.5% average in the polls by the third week of September, Obama would be very well the favorite. Largely because I think Romney's net convention bounce will be around 2%.

Also, I suspect the stock market will probably tank a little in September/October. Not enough to make a huge impact, but probably enough to push Romney over the edge.

Of course, if neither of these happen, Obama is probably winning.
How is he the slight favorite? Obama's ahead of Romney in Ohio and Virginia. If Romney can't win them, he's done.
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koenkai
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« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2012, 12:34:56 PM »

How is he the slight favorite? Obama's ahead of Romney in Ohio and Virginia. If Romney can't win them, he's done.

Well, I think Romney is the slight favorite because I think that he will recieve a convention bounce that pushes him slightly ahead of the polls and/or the economy will deteroriate from now to then. I'm not too concerned about state polls. Wisconsin and Virginia have perfectly tracked the national polls, so whoever wins the popular vote almost certainly takes both of those states. And Iowa is probably more Romney than the popular vote, so those three states would give him the victory if he won the popular vote. And of course, if Obama edges out the PV, he wins.

Of course, if that convention bounce does not happen or if the economy swings up, Romney will obviously not be the slight favorite, and I admit that. Obama leads now but I think events will unfold that give the edge to Romney. But if those events don't unfold, yes, I agree Obama will remain strongly favored.
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J. J.
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« Reply #24 on: August 29, 2012, 12:45:51 PM »

I'm looking historically, not at the convention.  Obama numbers are significantly lower than GW Bush (2004), Clinton (1996), and Reagan (1984) at this point in the cycle.  Is it too low to win?  Well, maybe or maybe not.  I won't be looking until after the convention.

Is it really significantly lower than Bush? I doubt it is even lower than Bush to begin with. The difference is that Obama has a lot of downside possibilities while Bush didn't face that problem. If the economy stays fine, and we get 100k+ jobs numbers, Obama will win. I just don't know if that will continue.

I'm doing Gallup to Gallup.  Obama had 46% last week; Bush was at 51%.  Further, Obama has been lower than Bush since late May.
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