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| | | |-+  CA-07: Garin-Hart-Yang (D): Bera, Lungren tied
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Author Topic: CA-07: Garin-Hart-Yang (D): Bera, Lungren tied  (Read 665 times)
Miles
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« on: August 29, 2012, 01:55:23 pm »
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Commissioned by the House Majority PAC.

Ami Bera- 47%
Dan Lungren- 47%
Not sure- 6%

Obama is beating Romney 52-44, which seems reasonable as it was 51-46 Obama in 2008.
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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2012, 04:01:38 pm »
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Do we know how much money Bera has?
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Torie
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« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2012, 04:09:14 pm »
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This CD (the eastern Sacramento burbs mostly), is trending Dem a bit. And Lungren does not attract cross over votes for whatever reason, even though a rather entrenched incumbent. So this poll seems about right to me.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2012, 08:49:33 pm »
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Ill have to see what non-partisan polls say, but if Obama is really winning here by eight points, I have a hard time seeing Lungren hang on. 
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krazen1211
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2012, 09:01:24 pm »
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Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2012, 09:25:14 pm »
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Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

And Mitt Romney came within a point of Obama statewide in the jungle primary. 
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2012, 11:04:37 pm »
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Word is that the GOP is concerned about losing this seat, according to a KCBS political reporter.

https://twitter.com/SovernNation/status/240824847805054976

Privately, several top @CAGOP leaders tell me here at #GOP2012 that Lungren is in real trouble and they could lose #CA07 seat.
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2012, 01:00:44 am »
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This CD (the eastern Sacramento burbs mostly), is trending Dem a bit. And Lungren does not attract cross over votes for whatever reason, even though a rather entrenched incumbent. So this poll seems about right to me.

He is something of a polarizing figure.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2012, 10:53:07 am »
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Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

And Mitt Romney came within a point of Obama statewide in the jungle primary. 

Yes, that's true? So?

This district is heavily white like the Washington districts where the jungle primary is heavily reflective of the general, not heavily Hispanic like the ones elsewhere in California.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2012, 03:54:39 pm »
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Lungren, from what I've known, has never had the likeability that an incumbent needs to stay in office in a marginal seat. The fact that he couldn't crack 40 against Gray Davis of all people is telling (although he did win statewide office as AG).
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« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2012, 08:58:09 am »
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Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

And Mitt Romney came within a point of Obama statewide in the jungle primary. 

Yes, that's true? So?

This district is heavily white like the Washington districts where the jungle primary is heavily reflective of the general, not heavily Hispanic like the ones elsewhere in California.

Lots of Hispanics and Asians in this district as well....
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2012, 12:55:07 pm »
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Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

And Mitt Romney came within a point of Obama statewide in the jungle primary. 

Yes, that's true? So?

This district is heavily white like the Washington districts where the jungle primary is heavily reflective of the general, not heavily Hispanic like the ones elsewhere in California.

Lots of Hispanics and Asians in this district as well....


What are the precise percentages? I do not believe them to be substantially different than, say, WA-07 where the above theory holds reasonably true.
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« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2012, 10:33:15 am »
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57% White, 14% Asian, 16% Hispanic and 8% Black.

Yes, the swing back to the Democrats is not going to be as high as in many Socal districts. I would be surprised if Lungren lost this year with a basically tied presidential and house vote. But later on this decade this district could go Dem. That area seems to be trending Democrat.
http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/07.png
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Badger
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« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2012, 12:04:38 pm »
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Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

And Mitt Romney came within a point of Obama statewide in the jungle primary. 

Ouch! You may want some ointment for that burn, Krazen....
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2012, 12:09:34 pm »
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Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

And Mitt Romney came within a point of Obama statewide in the jungle primary. 

Ouch! You may want some ointment for that burn, Krazen....

There is no ointment for fried brains Badger.
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