CA-07: Garin-Hart-Yang (D): Bera, Lungren tied

[MilesC56]

Commissioned by the House Majority PAC.

Ami Bera- 47%
Dan Lungren- 47%
Not sure- 6%

Obama is beating Romney 52-44, which seems reasonable as it was 51-46 Obama in 2008.

[Senator Sbane]

Do we know how much money Bera has?

[Torie]

This CD (the eastern Sacramento burbs mostly), is trending Dem a bit. And Lungren does not attract cross over votes for whatever reason, even though a rather entrenched incumbent. So this poll seems about right to me.

[Mr.Phips]

Ill have to see what non-partisan polls say, but if Obama is really winning here by eight points, I have a hard time seeing Lungren hang on. 

[krazen1211]

Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

[Mr.Phips]

Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

And Mitt Romney came within a point of Obama statewide in the jungle primary. 

[Invisible Obama]

Word is that the GOP is concerned about losing this seat, according to a KCBS political reporter.

https://twitter.com/SovernNation/status/240824847805054976

Privately, several top @CAGOP leaders tell me here at #GOP2012 that Lungren is in real trouble and they could lose #CA07 seat.

[Χahar]

This CD (the eastern Sacramento burbs mostly), is trending Dem a bit. And Lungren does not attract cross over votes for whatever reason, even though a rather entrenched incumbent. So this poll seems about right to me.

He is something of a polarizing figure.

[krazen1211]

Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

And Mitt Romney came within a point of Obama statewide in the jungle primary. 

Yes, that's true? So?

This district is heavily white like the Washington districts where the jungle primary is heavily reflective of the general, not heavily Hispanic like the ones elsewhere in California.

[freepcrusher]

Lungren, from what I've known, has never had the likeability that an incumbent needs to stay in office in a marginal seat. The fact that he couldn't crack 40 against Gray Davis of all people is telling (although he did win statewide office as AG).

[Senator Sbane]

Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

And Mitt Romney came within a point of Obama statewide in the jungle primary. 

Yes, that's true? So?

This district is heavily white like the Washington districts where the jungle primary is heavily reflective of the general, not heavily Hispanic like the ones elsewhere in California.

Lots of Hispanics and Asians in this district as well....

[krazen1211]

Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

And Mitt Romney came within a point of Obama statewide in the jungle primary. 

Yes, that's true? So?

This district is heavily white like the Washington districts where the jungle primary is heavily reflective of the general, not heavily Hispanic like the ones elsewhere in California.

Lots of Hispanics and Asians in this district as well....

What are the precise percentages? I do not believe them to be substantially different than, say, WA-07 where the above theory holds reasonably true.

[Senator Sbane]

57% White, 14% Asian, 16% Hispanic and 8% Black.

Yes, the swing back to the Democrats is not going to be as high as in many Socal districts. I would be surprised if Lungren lost this year with a basically tied presidential and house vote. But later on this decade this district could go Dem. That area seems to be trending Democrat.
http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/07.png

[Badger]

Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

And Mitt Romney came within a point of Obama statewide in the jungle primary. 

Ouch! You may want some ointment for that burn, Krazen....

[Landslide Lyndon]

Dan Lungren won the jungle primary by 11 points. Good luck with these junk polls!

And Mitt Romney came within a point of Obama statewide in the jungle primary. 

Ouch! You may want some ointment for that burn, Krazen....

There is no ointment for fried brains Badger.