Based on RNC speeches, who is running in 2016?

[Mr. Morden]

Christie obviously wants to run.  He's been dropping hints non-stop for ages, well before his RNC speech.

[Mr. Morden]

I highly doubt Martinez runs as early as 2016.  She's still looking after her sister and father, and she'll only be starting her second term as governor before she has to start running.

Christie, definitely. Maybe Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, Bob McDonnell, John Thune, Mike Huckabee, Paul Ryan, Marsha Blackburn, Marco Rubio....

these are all guesses, of course.

Huckabee?  How in the world would he survive the combination of the Akin/Boozman scandal(s), and the Clemmons clemency?

[Mr. Morden]

Here's my best guess on the likelihood of the most likely candidates running for the 2016 GOP nomination, should Obama win this year (in order from most likely to least likely):

1) Christie
2) Santorum
3) Jindal
4) Morry Taylor
5) Ryan
6) Rubio
7) Rand Paul
8 ) McDonnell
9) Perry
10) Pence
11) Walker
12) Jeb Bush
13) Thune
14) Cruz
15) Palin