Biggest House race upsets since 1982

[Mr.Phips]

In 1982, there were quite a few House upsets.  The ones that really stood out that year were in Virginia.  While Republicans were focused on protecting Stanford Parris(he actually won by about 1,000 votes in what was somewhat of an upset) from a comeback bid against the man he defeated, Herbert Harris, Democrats snuck in and picked up VA-04(Norman Sisisky defeated Bob Daniel). VA-06(open seat of Caldwell Butler), and VA-09(Rich Boucher defeated William Wampler).  Most prognosticators thought Republicans had those three seats in the bag, while rating Parris a slight underdog in VA-08. 

In 1984, the upset that I really remember is Dick Armey defeating incumbent and former Arlington Mayor Tom Vandergriff in the Arlington based TX-27.  Democrats drew that district for Vandergriff and he was considered fairly safe(Charlie Cook rated it "Likely Democratic"), but it was obvious that he was really quite vulnerable.  He only beat an underfinanced Republican by 600 votes in the great Dem year of 1982 and Reagan was getting 75% there at the top of the ballot.

In 1988, there were not a lot of upsets, but in Florida, there were a few big ones.  Florida was the only state where the Bush/Quayle ticket had any coattails.  Democrats were actually really nervous about being able to hold the Gold Coast based FL-15, which was Dan Mica's old seat, but Harry Johntson held it by double digits.  They failed to realize that the were in grave danger of losing the Daytona Beach based FL-04(Bill Chappell) and Gainsville based FL-06(left open by Buddy McKay).  Chappell lost by about 1,000 votes to Craig James and in FL-06, Cliff Stearns handily beat House Speaker Jon Mills as Bush was getting over 60% in both districts. 

In 1990, there were a lot of upsets and near upsets on both sides.  One of them was in the Pittsburgh sububs, where Rick Santorum knocked off Doug Walgren in PA-18, which Charlie Cook had as "safe Democratic".  There was Scott Klug's win over Bob Kastenmeier in the Madison based WI-02. 

In 1992, probably the biggest upset was Carolyn Maloney's defeat of Bill Green in Manhatten's NY-14, which Cook had as "Safe Republican".  Maloney raised about a tenth of what Green did and Green was highly popular since winning a 1978 special election for Ed Koch's old seat when he became mayor.  But the district was very heavily Democratic.  Dukakis got 65% here and even George McGovern carried the district by double digits over Richard Nixon.  It was the "Year of the Woman" and Clinton was winning the district 69%-23% and Green's hourglass finally ran out of sand. 

In 1994, there were a lot of upsets.  One of the bigger ones was Steve Stockman's defeat of Jack Brooks in the Galveston based TX-09.  Cook had this one as "Likely Democratic"and even Dukakis had gotten 54% of the vote here in 1988. 

Others that year were Todd Tihart's defeat of Dan Glickman in KS-04 and John Ensign's defeat of James Bilbray in NV-01.

In 1996, there werent that many upsets, but Loretta Sanchez's defeat of Bob Dornan in the Orange county based CA-46 was certainly a shocker.  Even a Democratic poll in that race had Dornan leading Sanchez by something like 48%-23%. 

In 1998, probably Rush Holt's defeat of Mike Pappas in NJ-12 was the biggest upset of the year.  in this Democratic trending district, Holt used Pappas' praising of Ken Starr against him and won narrowly.

IN 2000, Mark Kennedy's 155 vote defeat of David Minge in MN-02 certainly came out of nowhere.  Minge had won the seat in an upset himself in 1992 and held on after being targetted in 1994 and was considered fairly safe here.  However, the district was becomming more suburban and Republican and Bush's 55%-41% victory here and Kennedy's under the radar campaign allowed him to squeak out a win.

In 2002, there were not a lot of upsets, but one of them was GA-11, where Roger Kahn failed to takeover a seat Democrats thought was foolproof for a moderate Democrat like Kahn.  The district took in the most ancestally Democratic parts of the now heavily Republican counties West and Northwest of Atlanta plus a tenticle into the black parts of Cobb county.  The district was Democratic enough that Max Cleland and Roy Barnes carried it that year even as they were losing solidly statewide. Phil Gingrey ran an under the radar campaign and low black turnout allowed him to win by four points.

In 2004, there were only two real upsets.  One was Melissa Bean's defeat of Phil Crane in the Chicago suburbs and the other was Baron Hill's loss to Mike Sodrel in Butternut county IN-09. 

In 2006, there were a few upsets.  One big one was Carol Shea-Porter's upset of Jeb Bradley in NH-02 and another was Nancy Boyda's upset of Jim Ryun in Topeka's KS-02. 

In 2008, the biggest upset of all was Bill Jefferson's loss to Joseph Cao in the 70% black LA-02.  This was a preview of how difficult politics were going to be for Democrats in the Obama era.

In 2010, there was Melissa Bean's loss to Joe Walsh in IL-08, which could have probably been averted with an Obama appearance for Bean in the closing days of the campaign.  Same with Jim Oberstar's loss in MN-08, Dan Maffei's loss in NY-25, and Solomon Ortiz's loss in TX-27. 

[Holmes]

In 2008, the biggest upset of all was Bill Jefferson's loss to Joseph Cao in the 70% black LA-02.  This was a preview of how difficult politics were going to be for Democrats in the Obama era.

Yes, a guilty and corrupt incumbent Democrat losing in a special(ish) election after Obama was just elected with a 70% favorability was a very clear indication. Go away.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

In 1998, probably Rush Holt's defeat of Mike Pappas in NJ-12 was the biggest upset of the year.  in this Democratic trending district, Holt used Pappas' praising of Ken Starr against him and won narrowly.

This is literally the only reason that Rush Holt is a Congressman today.

If anything, Holt's reelection in 2000 was even more shocking. I can see how he defeated a Congressman that made a total ass of himself on the House floor, but I never expected him to win reelection against a popular former Congressman from the district, in a district that was (back then) quite Republican-leaning.

[Former Moderate]

Mike Pappas losing in 1998 was a surprise, but not a massive upset. Holt was well funded, heavily backed by Clinton, and it was no secret Democrats were gunning for the seat. And Pappas only won by 3% the year before.

[freepcrusher]

In 1982, there were quite a few House upsets.  The ones that really stood out that year were in Virginia.  While Republicans were focused on protecting Stanford Parris(he actually won by about 1,000 votes in what was somewhat of an upset) from a comeback bid against the man he defeated, Herbert Harris, Democrats snuck in and picked up VA-04(Norman Sisisky defeated Bob Daniel). VA-06(open seat of Caldwell Butler), and VA-09(Rich Boucher defeated William Wampler).  Most prognosticators thought Republicans had those three seats in the bag, while rating Parris a slight underdog in VA-08. 

In 1984, the upset that I really remember is Dick Armey defeating incumbent and former Arlington Mayor Tom Vandergriff in the Arlington based TX-27.  Democrats drew that district for Vandergriff and he was considered fairly safe(Charlie Cook rated it "Likely Democratic"), but it was obvious that he was really quite vulnerable.  He only beat an underfinanced Republican by 600 votes in the great Dem year of 1982 and Reagan was getting 75% there at the top of the ballot.

In 1988, there were not a lot of upsets, but in Florida, there were a few big ones.  Florida was the only state where the Bush/Quayle ticket had any coattails.  Democrats were actually really nervous about being able to hold the Gold Coast based FL-15, which was Dan Mica's old seat, but Harry Johntson held it by double digits.  They failed to realize that the were in grave danger of losing the Daytona Beach based FL-04(Bill Chappell) and Gainsville based FL-06(left open by Buddy McKay).  Chappell lost by about 1,000 votes to Craig James and in FL-06, Cliff Stearns handily beat House Speaker Jon Mills as Bush was getting over 60% in both districts. 

In 1990, there were a lot of upsets and near upsets on both sides.  One of them was in the Pittsburgh sububs, where Rick Santorum knocked off Doug Walgren in PA-18, which Charlie Cook had as "safe Democratic".  There was Scott Klug's win over Bob Kastenmeier in the Madison based WI-02. 

In 1992, probably the biggest upset was Carolyn Maloney's defeat of Bill Green in Manhatten's NY-14, which Cook had as "Safe Republican".  Maloney raised about a tenth of what Green did and Green was highly popular since winning a 1978 special election for Ed Koch's old seat when he became mayor.  But the district was very heavily Democratic.  Dukakis got 65% here and even George McGovern carried the district by double digits over Richard Nixon.  It was the "Year of the Woman" and Clinton was winning the district 69%-23% and Green's hourglass finally ran out of sand. 

In 1994, there were a lot of upsets.  One of the bigger ones was Steve Stockman's defeat of Jack Brooks in the Galveston based TX-09.  Cook had this one as "Likely Democratic"and even Dukakis had gotten 54% of the vote here in 1988. 

Others that year were Todd Tihart's defeat of Dan Glickman in KS-04 and John Ensign's defeat of James Bilbray in NV-01.

In 1996, there werent that many upsets, but Loretta Sanchez's defeat of Bob Dornan in the Orange county based CA-46 was certainly a shocker.  Even a Democratic poll in that race had Dornan leading Sanchez by something like 48%-23%. 

In 1998, probably Rush Holt's defeat of Mike Pappas in NJ-12 was the biggest upset of the year.  in this Democratic trending district, Holt used Pappas' praising of Ken Starr against him and won narrowly.

IN 2000, Mark Kennedy's 155 vote defeat of David Minge in MN-02 certainly came out of nowhere.  Minge had won the seat in an upset himself in 1992 and held on after being targetted in 1994 and was considered fairly safe here.  However, the district was becomming more suburban and Republican and Bush's 55%-41% victory here and Kennedy's under the radar campaign allowed him to squeak out a win.

In 2002, there were not a lot of upsets, but one of them was GA-11, where Roger Kahn failed to takeover a seat Democrats thought was foolproof for a moderate Democrat like Kahn.  The district took in the most ancestally Democratic parts of the now heavily Republican counties West and Northwest of Atlanta plus a tenticle into the black parts of Cobb county.  The district was Democratic enough that Max Cleland and Roy Barnes carried it that year even as they were losing solidly statewide. Phil Gingrey ran an under the radar campaign and low black turnout allowed him to win by four points.

In 2004, there were only two real upsets.  One was Melissa Bean's defeat of Phil Crane in the Chicago suburbs and the other was Baron Hill's loss to Mike Sodrel in Butternut county IN-09. 

In 2006, there were a few upsets.  One big one was Carol Shea-Porter's upset of Jeb Bradley in NH-02 and another was Nancy Boyda's upset of Jim Ryun in Topeka's KS-02. 

In 2008, the biggest upset of all was Bill Jefferson's loss to Joseph Cao in the 70% black LA-02.  This was a preview of how difficult politics were going to be for Democrats in the Obama era.

In 2010, there was Melissa Bean's loss to Joe Walsh in IL-08, which could have probably been averted with an Obama appearance for Bean in the closing days of the campaign.  Same with Jim Oberstar's loss in MN-08, Dan Maffei's loss in NY-25, and Solomon Ortiz's loss in TX-27. 

The vast majority of these are upsets but some of them are not. The new 26th district was supposed to be a GOP vote sink meant to take out areas that Ralph Hall and Martin Frost wanted no part of.  In 1982, a great dem year, Vandergriff managed to win by a narrow margin against a guy who two years earlier (a good republican year) had lost 60-40 to Jim Wright. So it isn't that much a surprise that Vandy lost.

Boucher I find kind of funny because he was an eleventh hour incumbent to lose in 2010 as all the cook people had it as safe D and he had run unopposed the year before. Considering that it went GOP even in 1974, the dems should never have held that district in the first place.

CA 46 was also not that much of an upset because the district, dating back to its creation after the 1960 census, always had a democrat registration edge and always sent dems to the state legislature. The bigger upset was when Dornan unseated Patterson in 1984.

[Mr.Phips]

In 1982, there were quite a few House upsets.  The ones that really stood out that year were in Virginia.  While Republicans were focused on protecting Stanford Parris(he actually won by about 1,000 votes in what was somewhat of an upset) from a comeback bid against the man he defeated, Herbert Harris, Democrats snuck in and picked up VA-04(Norman Sisisky defeated Bob Daniel). VA-06(open seat of Caldwell Butler), and VA-09(Rich Boucher defeated William Wampler).  Most prognosticators thought Republicans had those three seats in the bag, while rating Parris a slight underdog in VA-08. 

In 1984, the upset that I really remember is Dick Armey defeating incumbent and former Arlington Mayor Tom Vandergriff in the Arlington based TX-27.  Democrats drew that district for Vandergriff and he was considered fairly safe(Charlie Cook rated it "Likely Democratic"), but it was obvious that he was really quite vulnerable.  He only beat an underfinanced Republican by 600 votes in the great Dem year of 1982 and Reagan was getting 75% there at the top of the ballot.

In 1988, there were not a lot of upsets, but in Florida, there were a few big ones.  Florida was the only state where the Bush/Quayle ticket had any coattails.  Democrats were actually really nervous about being able to hold the Gold Coast based FL-15, which was Dan Mica's old seat, but Harry Johntson held it by double digits.  They failed to realize that the were in grave danger of losing the Daytona Beach based FL-04(Bill Chappell) and Gainsville based FL-06(left open by Buddy McKay).  Chappell lost by about 1,000 votes to Craig James and in FL-06, Cliff Stearns handily beat House Speaker Jon Mills as Bush was getting over 60% in both districts. 

In 1990, there were a lot of upsets and near upsets on both sides.  One of them was in the Pittsburgh sububs, where Rick Santorum knocked off Doug Walgren in PA-18, which Charlie Cook had as "safe Democratic".  There was Scott Klug's win over Bob Kastenmeier in the Madison based WI-02. 

In 1992, probably the biggest upset was Carolyn Maloney's defeat of Bill Green in Manhatten's NY-14, which Cook had as "Safe Republican".  Maloney raised about a tenth of what Green did and Green was highly popular since winning a 1978 special election for Ed Koch's old seat when he became mayor.  But the district was very heavily Democratic.  Dukakis got 65% here and even George McGovern carried the district by double digits over Richard Nixon.  It was the "Year of the Woman" and Clinton was winning the district 69%-23% and Green's hourglass finally ran out of sand. 

In 1994, there were a lot of upsets.  One of the bigger ones was Steve Stockman's defeat of Jack Brooks in the Galveston based TX-09.  Cook had this one as "Likely Democratic"and even Dukakis had gotten 54% of the vote here in 1988. 

Others that year were Todd Tihart's defeat of Dan Glickman in KS-04 and John Ensign's defeat of James Bilbray in NV-01.

In 1996, there werent that many upsets, but Loretta Sanchez's defeat of Bob Dornan in the Orange county based CA-46 was certainly a shocker.  Even a Democratic poll in that race had Dornan leading Sanchez by something like 48%-23%. 

In 1998, probably Rush Holt's defeat of Mike Pappas in NJ-12 was the biggest upset of the year.  in this Democratic trending district, Holt used Pappas' praising of Ken Starr against him and won narrowly.

IN 2000, Mark Kennedy's 155 vote defeat of David Minge in MN-02 certainly came out of nowhere.  Minge had won the seat in an upset himself in 1992 and held on after being targetted in 1994 and was considered fairly safe here.  However, the district was becomming more suburban and Republican and Bush's 55%-41% victory here and Kennedy's under the radar campaign allowed him to squeak out a win.

In 2002, there were not a lot of upsets, but one of them was GA-11, where Roger Kahn failed to takeover a seat Democrats thought was foolproof for a moderate Democrat like Kahn.  The district took in the most ancestally Democratic parts of the now heavily Republican counties West and Northwest of Atlanta plus a tenticle into the black parts of Cobb county.  The district was Democratic enough that Max Cleland and Roy Barnes carried it that year even as they were losing solidly statewide. Phil Gingrey ran an under the radar campaign and low black turnout allowed him to win by four points.

In 2004, there were only two real upsets.  One was Melissa Bean's defeat of Phil Crane in the Chicago suburbs and the other was Baron Hill's loss to Mike Sodrel in Butternut county IN-09. 

In 2006, there were a few upsets.  One big one was Carol Shea-Porter's upset of Jeb Bradley in NH-02 and another was Nancy Boyda's upset of Jim Ryun in Topeka's KS-02. 

In 2008, the biggest upset of all was Bill Jefferson's loss to Joseph Cao in the 70% black LA-02.  This was a preview of how difficult politics were going to be for Democrats in the Obama era.

In 2010, there was Melissa Bean's loss to Joe Walsh in IL-08, which could have probably been averted with an Obama appearance for Bean in the closing days of the campaign.  Same with Jim Oberstar's loss in MN-08, Dan Maffei's loss in NY-25, and Solomon Ortiz's loss in TX-27. 

The vast majority of these are upsets but some of them are not. The new 26th district was supposed to be a GOP vote sink meant to take out areas that Ralph Hall and Martin Frost wanted no part of.  In 1982, a great dem year, Vandergriff managed to win by a narrow margin against a guy who two years earlier (a good republican year) had lost 60-40 to Jim Wright. So it isn't that much a surprise that Vandy lost.

Boucher I find kind of funny because he was an eleventh hour incumbent to lose in 2010 as all the cook people had it as safe D and he had run unopposed the year before. Considering that it went GOP even in 1974, the dems should never have held that district in the first place.

Boucher should have never, ever voted for cap and trade along with several other Demcorats.  I dont care if it embarassed teh leadership and failed to pass the House, its not like it was going anywhere in the Senate anyway.  Whose idiotic idea was it to push for that vote anyway?

[Devils30]

Holden's 2002 win in PA-17 ranks up there as it was grown to elect a Republican.

[MilesC56]

NC-02: I knew Etheridge was in a weak position, but I didn't think Ellmers could actually win.

[Mr.Phips]

Holden's 2002 win in PA-17 ranks up there as it was grown to elect a Republican.

Eh, most polls showed Holden ahead and it was apparent that Gekas was running a very weak campaign. 

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

2010 looks like upset heaven from my perspective.

You could consider IL-08, IL-10, MN-08, MS-04, MO-04, NY-13, NY-25, NC-02, OH-06, TX-27, VA-09 (and probably other seats too) as upsets.

[Ogre Mage]

1994, WA-05:  George Nethercutt defeating Speaker of the House Tom Foley.

[Sibboleth]

Just because a big name loses doesn't mean it was an upset. To use a couple of examples from 1997 here,  Malcolm Rifkind losing in was not an upset; everyone knew he was a dead man walking. Michael Portillo losing was different; his seat wasn't even on the radar.

[adma]

In 2008, the biggest upset of all was Bill Jefferson's loss to Joseph Cao in the 70% black LA-02.  This was a preview of how difficult politics were going to be for Democrats in the Obama era.

Yes, a guilty and corrupt incumbent Democrat losing in a special(ish) election after Obama was just elected with a 70% favorability was a very clear indication. Go away.

Another in that "guilty and corrupt" category: Dan Rostenkowski in '94.

[MilesC56]

Was it considered an upset that Matheson held his new district in 2002?

[RBH]

Michael Patrick Flanagan beating Rostenkowski still counts as an upset.

wasn't Max Burns' one term more of an upset than Gingrey winning too?

Loebsack over Leach

Perriello over Goode

Joan Kelly Horn over Buechner

[Former Moderate]

Just because a big name loses doesn't mean it was an upset. To use a couple of examples from 1997 here,  Malcolm Rifkind losing in was not an upset; everyone knew he was a dead man walking. Michael Portillo losing was different; his seat wasn't even on the radar.

True. Tom Foley lost, but he had a very Republican district post-redistricting. He was considered vulnerable.

The Dan Rostenkowski loss, meanwhile, was indeed one of the biggest upsets of all time.

[bgwah]

Just because a big name loses doesn't mean it was an upset. To use a couple of examples from 1997 here,  Malcolm Rifkind losing in was not an upset; everyone knew he was a dead man walking. Michael Portillo losing was different; his seat wasn't even on the radar.

True. Tom Foley lost, but he had a very Republican district post-redistricting. He was considered vulnerable.

The Dan Rostenkowski loss, meanwhile, was indeed one of the biggest upsets of all time.

Foley's district stayed almost exactly the same (link).

Washington's primary system (then the blanket and now the top two) often gives us a pretty good view of what the general will look like, and in 1994 the primary showed us that Foley was in big trouble.

[MilesC56]

I would also add Bob Inglis over Liz Patterson in 1992. Yes, the district was trending R, but Patterson had a family name and she won 2 tough races in 1986 and 1988.

[Sibboleth]

Rostenkowski might well be the answer, actually. If there has to be just one answer, anyway.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Although he had a ton of problems, George Hansen losing the ID-2 in 1984 could be up there, given the district and year.  I don't know much about the race, but Jill Long taking Dan Coats' seat in a 1989 special might be another.  At least to the national parties, Herb Klein winning NJ-8 in 1992 and Ron Lewis winning KY-2 in 1994 were upsets.

[RBH]

Although he had a ton of problems, George Hansen losing the ID-2 in 1984 could be up there, given the district and year.  I don't know much about the race, but Jill Long taking Dan Coats' seat in a 1989 special might be another.  At least to the national parties, Herb Klein winning NJ-8 in 1992 and Ron Lewis winning KY-2 in 1994 were upsets.

well George Hansen spent 1985 in prison, if that tells you anything about why he lost in 1984.

And a Hansen supporter added this line to his Wikipedia: "His imprisonment included torture through medical neglect and subjection to "diesel therapy," a form of punishment in which prisoners are painfully shackled and then transported for days or weeks without respite."

If we're including special elections, then the list swells.

[OC]

Bill Foster and Melissa Bean winning. Bad thing bean shouldnt have voted for tarp. Shedded the indy she needed.

[Mr.Phips]

Although he had a ton of problems, George Hansen losing the ID-2 in 1984 could be up there, given the district and year.  I don't know much about the race, but Jill Long taking Dan Coats' seat in a 1989 special might be another.  At least to the national parties, Herb Klein winning NJ-8 in 1992 and Ron Lewis winning KY-2 in 1994 were upsets.

The fact that Hanson came within 60 votes of being reelected in ID-02 after what happened was an upset.  Summer polls had Stallings like 30 points ahead, but Reagan's coattails(he got like 77% in ID-02) nearly pulled him accross the finish line. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Here's one from 1998 from my district (KY-4): Democrat Ken Lucas beat Republican Gex Williams for an open seat.

I was absolutely floored when this happened!

At the time, northern Kentucky had a reputation for being borderline Nazi. After that, it was slightly less Nazi (in the cities at least). That was the first sign in modern times that the local GOP couldn't keep making fools of themselves in public and expect to be rewarded for it.

I had seriously planned on running for that seat myself.

Unfortunately, once he got to Congress, Lucas turned out to be no better than the Republicans who fought against him.

Progress has been slow since then, but someday, this shoe will drop for good.

[adma]

Definitely worth mentioning in this thread is one of the more mythic upsets in recent years, NY-19 in 2006--though the mythos had less to do with a Dem taking over a longtime GOP seat, than with who the Dem was: ex-Orleans 70s-rocker John Hall...