House races to watch

[BM]

Share them.

[Miles]

A few off the top of my head:

NC-07
NC-08
GA-12
OH-06
OH-16
MN-08
MD-06
PA-12
NY-27
NY-01
NY-21
NY-24
NH-01
NH-02
AZ-09
MA-06
IL-08
IL-12
IL-06
IL-11
TX-23
IA-03
IA-04
NV-03
NV-04
CA-07
CA-24
WA-01

This list is by no means exhaustive.

[smoltchanov]

I would add:

CA-26
CA-41
CA-47 (may be)
CA-52
CO-06
CT-05
FL-18
IL-10
IL-13
IL-17
IN-02
KY-06 (may be)
ME-02 (may be)
MI-01
MI-11
MT-01 (may be)
RI-01
UT-04
VA-02
WI-07

Also top of my head, so, probably, forgot some..

[BM]

Thanks!

[Mr.Phips]

NY-11
NY-18
NY-19

[Zioneer]

I would contend that UT-02 is almost as exciting as UT-04; in fact, if Mia Love's poll numbers are as painfully weak as they've been so far, UT-02 might be more exciting. Of course, to find out just how close or safe UT-02 is, it would need to be polled, and nobody seems willing to do that. Of course, because it's not being polled, nobody thinks it could be close, and so it won't be polled, and so on.

I don't have very much info on congressional races in other states, but whichever Illinois district has Tammy Duckworth and Joe Walsh facing off will be fun to watch.

[Donerail]

FL-18 will be big (Allen West); I'll throw in FL-22 for Sanchez as well. FL-16 is currently occupied by mega-HP Vern Buchanan, though polling for Keith Fitzgerald has been awful recently, but I could see it getting better. David Riviera in FL-26 has been scandal-ridden and the Democrats could unseat him. FL-02 could be a sleeper race, since it now includes all of Tallahassee, and the Democrats have a decent candidate there. Val Demings might be able to knock out 'Taliban Dan'. I'm not sure whether or not John Mica is vulnerable, so keep that in the back of your mind as well. Grayson would normally have the advantage in FL-09, but he's facing a Hispanic Republican; that could be interesting. It'd be interesting to see Yoho's performance in FL-03. There's also an actual challenger (who's qualified for Emily's List funding and such) against Bill Young, so that could be interesting as well. That's basically all of Florida's races.

[tmthforu94]

Jackie Walorski barely lost to Donnelly in 2010. This time around, her opponent isn't as well-known, isn't as well-funded, and is to the left of where Donnelly was. Plus, the district is more GOP-friendly than it was in 2010.

It might be within 10 points, but it's not going to be a race to watch.

[ajc0918]

FL-18 will be big (Allen West); I'll throw in FL-22 for Sanchez as well. FL-16 is currently occupied by mega-HP Vern Buchanan, though polling for Keith Fitzgerald has been awful recently, but I could see it getting better. David Riviera in FL-26 has been scandal-ridden and the Democrats could unseat him. FL-02 could be a sleeper race, since it now includes all of Tallahassee, and the Democrats have a decent candidate there. Val Demings might be able to knock out 'Taliban Dan'. I'm not sure whether or not John Mica is vulnerable, so keep that in the back of your mind as well. Grayson would normally have the advantage in FL-09, but he's facing a Hispanic Republican; that could be interesting. It'd be interesting to see Yoho's performance in FL-03. There's also an actual challenger (who's qualified for Emily's List funding and such) against Bill Young, so that could be interesting as well. That's basically all of Florida's races.

I'm not sure who "Sanchez" is, but FL-22 is Lois Frankel against Adam Hasner.
Also, In FL-09 Grayson isn't facing a hispanic republican, the hispanic republican lost the primary to a tea party person named Todd Long.

[Donerail]

FL-18 will be big (Allen West); I'll throw in FL-22 for Sanchez as well. FL-16 is currently occupied by mega-HP Vern Buchanan, though polling for Keith Fitzgerald has been awful recently, but I could see it getting better. David Riviera in FL-26 has been scandal-ridden and the Democrats could unseat him. FL-02 could be a sleeper race, since it now includes all of Tallahassee, and the Democrats have a decent candidate there. Val Demings might be able to knock out 'Taliban Dan'. I'm not sure whether or not John Mica is vulnerable, so keep that in the back of your mind as well. Grayson would normally have the advantage in FL-09, but he's facing a Hispanic Republican; that could be interesting. It'd be interesting to see Yoho's performance in FL-03. There's also an actual challenger (who's qualified for Emily's List funding and such) against Bill Young, so that could be interesting as well. That's basically all of Florida's races.

I'm not sure who "Sanchez" is, but FL-22 is Lois Frankel against Adam Hasner.
Also, In FL-09 Grayson isn't facing a hispanic republican, the hispanic republican lost the primary to a tea party person named Todd Long.

Sanchez is a fellow poster who's working for the Hasner campaign

And right, I expected Quinones to win; under these circumstances it'll be interesting to see how much of a margin Grayson manages to run up.

[Gass3268]

WI-1 should be interesting just based on the fact that a Vice Presidential nominee is running in that district. 

[Gass3268]

Also would a few people be interested in doing group House projections a group? I was thinking it would be fun to have a group with a few democrats, few republicans and a few independents were we would vote on the ratings for each district and then establishing the 538 projections. Would anyone be interested? 

[Torie]

I think I am going to pump in the max that is legal into CA-47. I want to meet the Pub candidate first however - up close and personal - and get the measure of the man.  It is an interesting race.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

tmi

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

MA-06 is the race I'm watching. Not because it'll tell much about the national mood, but it's an interesting study on how bad a person has to be to lose re-election to a D+7 district. And, of course, how good a Republican candidate you have to be to luck into office. Can former long-term State Senator Tisei really lose here when Brown will almost certainly win the district by a notable margin?

[Miles]

Also would a few people be interested in doing group House projections a group? I was thinking it would be fun to have a group with a few democrats, few republicans and a few independents were we would vote on the ratings for each district and then establishing the 538 projections. Would anyone be interested? 

PM me. Nagas said that he was interested too; Fuzzy and I already made a ratings map with the new CDs, but that was back in March/April and needs to be updated.

[smoltchanov]

Also would a few people be interested in doing group House projections a group? I was thinking it would be fun to have a group with a few democrats, few republicans and a few independents were we would vote on the ratings for each district and then establishing the 538 projections. Would anyone be interested? 

Interested (PM me if you want me in the group). Though now i am Russia-based - connections remains)))

[Dereich]

FL-18 will be big (Allen West); I'll throw in FL-22 for Sanchez as well. FL-16 is currently occupied by mega-HP Vern Buchanan, though polling for Keith Fitzgerald has been awful recently, but I could see it getting better. David Riviera in FL-26 has been scandal-ridden and the Democrats could unseat him. FL-02 could be a sleeper race, since it now includes all of Tallahassee, and the Democrats have a decent candidate there. Val Demings might be able to knock out 'Taliban Dan'. I'm not sure whether or not John Mica is vulnerable, so keep that in the back of your mind as well. Grayson would normally have the advantage in FL-09, but he's facing a Hispanic Republican; that could be interesting. It'd be interesting to see Yoho's performance in FL-03. There's also an actual challenger (who's qualified for Emily's List funding and such) against Bill Young, so that could be interesting as well. That's basically all of Florida's races.

As I said in another thread FL-2 isn't gonna be competitive, a Tallahassee liberal won't be able to win much from the rural areas that dominate the district. The best (not saying very much) candidate would have been state representative Bembry, but he lost in the primary (along with my professor). And Corrine is going to win her normal, depressing landslide oops, old district 3. Other then that, good estimation.

[Talleyrand]

Also would a few people be interested in doing group House projections a group? I was thinking it would be fun to have a group with a few democrats, few republicans and a few independents were we would vote on the ratings for each district and then establishing the 538 projections. Would anyone be interested? 

I'm interested too. PM me if you would like my input.

[Zioneer]

Is it possible that the WI-01 race might be an exciting one? I've heard that Zerban is getting a lot of attention from the Dems, and I think they'll be motivated to try and defeat Paul Ryan once and for all.

[Napoleon]

I would be very interested Gass.

[Donerail]

FL-18 will be big (Allen West); I'll throw in FL-22 for Sanchez as well. FL-16 is currently occupied by mega-HP Vern Buchanan, though polling for Keith Fitzgerald has been awful recently, but I could see it getting better. David Riviera in FL-26 has been scandal-ridden and the Democrats could unseat him. FL-02 could be a sleeper race, since it now includes all of Tallahassee, and the Democrats have a decent candidate there. Val Demings might be able to knock out 'Taliban Dan'. I'm not sure whether or not John Mica is vulnerable, so keep that in the back of your mind as well. Grayson would normally have the advantage in FL-09, but he's facing a Hispanic Republican; that could be interesting. It'd be interesting to see Yoho's performance in FL-03. There's also an actual challenger (who's qualified for Emily's List funding and such) against Bill Young, so that could be interesting as well. That's basically all of Florida's races.

As I said in another thread FL-2 isn't gonna be competitive, a Tallahassee liberal won't be able to win much from the rural areas that dominate the district. The best (not saying very much) candidate would have been state representative Bembry, but he lost in the primary (along with my professor). And Corrine is going to win her normal, depressing landslide oops, old district 3. Other then that, good estimation.

Corrine's now in FL-05; the new one is Stearns' old seat, but Stearns got knocked out in the primary by a retired veterinarian who no one's ever heard of, running against an African-American Democrat who might run up enough margins in Alachua to make it competitive (Yoho apparently opposes all earmarks, which could mean a major drop in federal funding for UF). And old FL-02 wouldn't be competitive, but new FL-02 includes all of Leon, Gadsden, and Quincy Counties, areas where Lawson can overperform even if he drops much of the rest of the district (Bembry would have been a much stronger candidate though, I agree).

[Vosem]

Also would a few people be interested in doing group House projections a group? I was thinking it would be fun to have a group with a few democrats, few republicans and a few independents were we would vote on the ratings for each district and then establishing the 538 projections. Would anyone be interested? 

PM me. Nagas said that he was interested too; Fuzzy and I already made a ratings map with the new CDs, but that was back in March/April and needs to be updated.

I want in!

[Gass3268]

TexasDemocrat, Napoleon and Vosem: PM Miles and let him know you want in. Also give him a region of the country you'd be willing to fallow.

[Miles]

TexasDemocrat, Napoleon and Vosem: PM Miles and let him know you want in. Also give him a region of the country you'd be willing to fallow.

This. Anyone who wants to help us is welcome!