Which of the following will be the more accurate way of producing an ECV map?

[Harry Hayfield]

1) Take the RCP daily poll, apply a three day moving average, calculate the swing and apply it uniformly across the United States. If a state has a forecast majority of less than 3%, consult the RCP state poll averages over the last seven days and use that average as the final figure

2) Take all polls published each day and apply a three day moving average (as above) and use common sense for any state that could be considered a toss up

3) Look at all state polls only

4) Pot luck