Rasmussen likely to show Romney +5- +8 ahead of Obama in the next several days

[ucscgaldamez]

Rasmussen Reports just reported a +4 Republican edge among adult partisan trends. It's interesting how the timing of course will correlate with the end of RNC. With the adjustment that they will show on partisan differences, it won't surprise me that Romney will be ahead +5-8 in the next few days.

Check out the article: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends

I'm wondering if other polls are finding that there are more adults classifying themselves as Republicans than Democrats, especially among adults, not even registered voters or likely voters. A +4 among adults, could easily be a +6 among registered voters and a +8 among likely voters.

[Tender Branson]

I'm wondering if other polls are finding that there are more adults classifying themselves as Republicans than Democrats, especially among adults, not even registered voters or likely voters. A +4 among adults, could easily be a +6 among registered voters and a +8 among likely voters.

No, only Rasmussen shows this. And maybe the flawed Gallup poll (but this is another story, because they conduct their partisan ID polls over half a year).

But what else can we expect from Scott Rasmussen, a man who once went on boat trips with Karl Rove ? Of course he's trying to create a virtual Romney bounce ...

[J. J.]

I think that will be too high, but I'd expect an uptick that will be ephemeral.

[後援会]

Creating a virtual bounce doesn't actually make it more likely for Romney to get elected President. So I doubt there's any insidious partisan motivation.

Rasmussen probably thinks we will actually see an R+4 electorate. I greatly disagree, but I suppose it's not an impossible outcome.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

Creating a virtual bounce doesn't actually make it more likely for Romney to get elected President. So I doubt there's any insidious partisan motivation.

I disagree... the news media unfortunately reports more on the horse race then the race of ideas- it could be a self fulfilling prophecy

[ucscgaldamez]

Even in 2010, we had a split electorate. I hardly doubt Republicans will be +4 on election day when they couldnt even accomplish that during their best year in a long time during a midterm election with a whiter older electorate.

[ucscgaldamez]

If Obama does indeed win and Rasmussen ends up being one of the few to predict a Romney +3-4 point win then that would be pretty laughable.

[後援会]

Rasmussen has a much better record on presidential elections than congressional elections. It's probably because turnout is higher and robo-calling works far better (which is what they do).

Which is why this R+4 doesn't make much sense. Though a possibility is that the R+4 actually IS the convention bounce.

[Torie]

All this fixation with polls, when the overall template is the thing. The polls are noise.

[Tender Branson]

Romney could overtake Obama in the RCP average today:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

For the first time in 1 year. It depends on today's Rasmussen and Gallup tracking though.

[Tender Branson]

For the record, McCain peaked at 48.3% on the RCP average on Sept. 8, which was 4 days after the RNC ended. This would be similar to tomorrow this year. Some polls even had McCain ahead by 10 at this point. Way to go, Mitt.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It should be noted that Rasmussen is a Republican troll.

Here's what Nate Silver has to say about him in a year where Republicans vastly exceeded expectations.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

[後援会]

Rasmussen screwed up because robo-polling lower-turnout races has severe shortfalls.

Nate Silver, on average, found that Rasmussen polls tend to be 1.5 points more Republican than the average poll. Which is hardly hackery. It's perhaps wrong, but hardly hackery.

[Teemu]

If we look at the Rasmussen party ID poll history starting from 2004, we can see that the only August or October party ID gap of election year that was more favorable to the Republicans than the election exit poll party ID gap was August 2008 number. Also September 2008 was the only September on which the party ID gap was more favorable to Republicans than the exit poll party ID gap.

Wasn't really surprising that events of that fall brought that down, and the Rasmussen October 2008 party ID gap was about the same as exit poll party ID gap.

rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

Rasmussen August Party ID gap, [Rasmussen October party ID gap], (exit poll of the November election night)

2010: D+1.2 [D+2.9] (D=R)
2008: D+5.7 [D+7.1] (D+7)
2006: D+5.3 [D+6.2] (D+2)
2004: D+2.6 [D+1.5] (D=R)

*the poll sample that had more favorable party ID gap for Republicans than the eventual exit poll on bold

So historically, Rasmussen party ID gap has been more favorable to the Democrats than the exit poll party ID gap. Maybe this year is the first time they got the party ID horribly wrong in favor of Republicans on election year, maybe not.

[Adam Griffin]

5-8 points? Blasphemy. Somehow a RNC convention with fewer viewers than ever and with essentially an average campaign speech from the candidate is somehow responsible for one of the biggest post-convention bounces in recent history?

[Eraserhead]

He's going to look ridiculous if nobody else shows that kind of bounce.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Romney could overtake Obama in the RCP average today:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

For the first time in 1 year. It depends on today's Rasmussen and Gallup tracking though.

True, but Intrade and 538 aren't showing improvement for Romney.

[BigSkyBob]

Rasmussen has a much better record on presidential elections than congressional elections. It's probably because turnout is higher and robo-calling works far better (which is what they do).

Which is why this R+4 doesn't make much sense. Though a possibility is that the R+4 actually IS the convention bounce.

The partisan numbers are based on tens of thousands of interviews over months.

[Tender Branson]

Not there yet, but maybe tomorrow when the whole 3 days after Thursday are in.

48-44 Romney today.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[cavalcade]

Romney could overtake Obama in the RCP average today:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

For the first time in 1 year. It depends on today's Rasmussen and Gallup tracking though.

True, but Intrade and 538 aren't showing improvement for Romney.

538 explicitly subtracts out the expected convention bounce of ~4 points (which appears to be about what Rasmussen has), and I'm not sure it even uses national polls anyway.  Intrade is hopefully accounting for the convention bounce as well.

The convention bounce, combined with the fact that pre-convention national polls were in the Obama +1 neighborhood, will likely carry Romney into a temporary lead on RCP until polls showing Obama's own bounce have come in.

[muon2]

I think the bounce may be very hard to detect this year. The conventions are back-to-back with the holiday weekend in between like in 2008. This tends to put one bounce emerging just as the other convention gets going. Despite the huge audience for the DNC in 2008, Obama got a very modest bounce. With a smaller audience one would expect less bounce anyway.

When pundits look at large bounces in the past, they could develop without other interference during the summer. Before 2008 there was a larger gap between the conventions and both conventions ran before Labor Day. In 2004 the gap was a month, and challenger conventions in July were common. I suspect that we will learn that conventional wisdom about bounces will no longer apply in the new format established in 2008 and maintained this year.

[Lincoln Republican]

This election is a horse race.

I'm not saying that Obama won't  win, but I am also not saying that Romney won't win.

[Link]

He's going to look ridiculous if nobody else shows that kind of bounce.

Gonna go ahead and bump this thread.