Rasmussen likely to show Romney +5- +8 ahead of Obama in the next several days (user search)
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  Rasmussen likely to show Romney +5- +8 ahead of Obama in the next several days (search mode)
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Author Topic: Rasmussen likely to show Romney +5- +8 ahead of Obama in the next several days  (Read 2237 times)
cavalcade
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« on: September 02, 2012, 10:18:18 AM »

Romney could overtake Obama in the RCP average today:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

For the first time in 1 year. It depends on today's Rasmussen and Gallup tracking though.

True, but Intrade and 538 aren't showing improvement for Romney.

538 explicitly subtracts out the expected convention bounce of ~4 points (which appears to be about what Rasmussen has), and I'm not sure it even uses national polls anyway.  Intrade is hopefully accounting for the convention bounce as well.

The convention bounce, combined with the fact that pre-convention national polls were in the Obama +1 neighborhood, will likely carry Romney into a temporary lead on RCP until polls showing Obama's own bounce have come in.
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