Teemu
Newbie
Posts: 4
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« on: September 02, 2012, 02:40:13 AM » |
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« edited: September 02, 2012, 03:26:27 AM by Teemu »
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If we look at the Rasmussen party ID poll history starting from 2004, we can see that the only August or October party ID gap of election year that was more favorable to the Republicans than the election exit poll party ID gap was August 2008 number. Also September 2008 was the only September on which the party ID gap was more favorable to Republicans than the exit poll party ID gap.
Wasn't really surprising that events of that fall brought that down, and the Rasmussen October 2008 party ID gap was about the same as exit poll party ID gap.
rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
Rasmussen August Party ID gap, [Rasmussen October party ID gap], (exit poll of the November election night)
2010: D+1.2 [D+2.9] (D=R)
2008: D+5.7 [D+7.1] (D+7)
2006: D+5.3 [D+6.2] (D+2)
2004: D+2.6 [D+1.5] (D=R)
*the poll sample that had more favorable party ID gap for Republicans than the eventual exit poll on bold
So historically, Rasmussen party ID gap has been more favorable to the Democrats than the exit poll party ID gap. Maybe this year is the first time they got the party ID horribly wrong in favor of Republicans on election year, maybe not.
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