What would your 2006 U.S. Senate strategy be?

[A18]

What candidates would you run, and what would you focus their campaigns on?

I'll post mine when I'm doing with dinner.

[Smash255]

What candidates would you run, and what would you focus their campaigns on?

I'll post mine when I'm doing with dinner.

thats really hard to say, depends on the direction of the country at the time, Bush's approval, etc

If Bush is doing pretty well than the Republicans can run as many conservatives as they want and the Dems would have to go with moderate candidates.

However of things aren't going well & Bush's popularity is low than the Dems can run more liberal candidates and the Republicans would be forced into more moderate candidates.

[Wakie]

As a Dem I'll focus on that side of the equation only.

I run the following incumbs for reelection.

CA - Feinstein
CT - Leiberman
DE - Carper
FL - Nelson
MD - Sarbanes
MA - Kerry
MI - Stabenow
MN - Dayton
NE - Nelson
NJ - Corzine
NM - Bingaman
NY - Clinton
ND - Conrad
WA - Cantwell
WI - Kohl



Here are my challenger candidates in each state.

AZ - Run Ed Pastor against Jon Kyl.  Play the Hispanic angle HARD.  Also position Kyl as a "Johnny Come Lately" to Arizona and as an extremist who will take their social security away.

IN - Run Bart Peterson against Dick Lugar (or more likely his successor).  Play on his links to Evan Bayh.

ME - Run a strawman.  She's gonna crush whoever it is.

MS - May as well run a strawman.  If he'd agree to it I'd run James Earl Jones.  He's political, ex-military, and would just be fun to watch in a debate.

MO - Run Jay Nixon against Jim Talent.  Emphasize his achievements as Attorney General and point to Talent's lack of action in the Senate.

NV - Run Shelley Berkley.  If Ensign doesn't run for the governor you paint him as an extremist who is willing to let the Bush admin dump in Nevada.  I'd like a better name than Shelley Berkley but I can't think of any.

OH - Run Sherrod Brown against DeWine.  Play up Brown's experience and "avg Joe" qualities.  Blast the Jessica Cutler scandal at DeWine every opportunity you get.

PA - Run Bob Casey Jr against Little Rick in the PA race.  Bang the drum loudly and play up Santorum's ultra-conservatism.  Play "Casey is a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat moderate".

RI - Try to get Chafee to switch party.  If that fails then run Patrick Kennedy against him.

TN - Run Harold Ford.  Frist claims he won't run for a 3rd term and Ford could slide in nicely.

TX - Draft Steve Bartlett to return and boot Kay Bailey Hutchinson.  Position him as "an outsider"

UT - Why even bother?  Maybe we can get the Mormon girl from The Real World.

VT - Try to convince Jeffords to come all the way over.    Otherwise you could always run Howard Dean.

VA - Run Mark Warner against Allen.  Bang the moderate drum.

WY - If Thomas retires then run Dave Freudenthal.  Otherwise find a stickman.



Here are my "replacing a retiring Dem" candidates in each state (who they replace is at the end of each in parens).

HI - Run Mufi Hannemann.  He's mayor of Honolulu and has come up through Hawaiian politics the hard way.  Play up his local roots.
(Daniel Akaka will be 82 in 2006.  Gotta get some young blood in.)

WV - Run Gaston Caperton.  He's about the only West Virginian who can take over from Byrd.
(Good ridiance Byrd.)

[Moooooo]

Sounds good to me, Wakie.  What do you guys honestly believe will be the net gain/loss for the Democrats or Republicans in 2006?

Will the Democrats pick up 2 or 3 seats?
Will the Republcians get to 60?

[Sam Spade]

Sounds good to me, Wakie.  What do you guys honestly believe will be the net gain/loss for the Democrats or Republicans in 2006?

Will the Democrats pick up 2 or 3 seats?
Will the Republcians get to 60?

It's too hard to tell right now.  If there are no major retirements (or good opposition party candidates for those retirements), my bet will be either +1 Rep. or +1 Dem. or totally even.

Basically, every election (unless it's like 1994 or 2000 afterwards), there's usually only 1 or 2 weak incumbents on each side that can be beaten.  Senate is the ultimate incumbent-place with regards to elections.

Here are your weak candidates for either side as I can see right now:
GOP
Rick Santorum - PA
Lincoln Chafee - RI
Some other Rep. candidates might look weak (Jim Talent, George Allen), but keep in mind they're in Rep. leaning states and will be naturally very tough to beat.

Dem.
Bill Nelson - FL (esp. if Jeb runs)
Mark Dayton - MN (MN is a tossup state in my mind at state level, not Presidential level yet)
As with the Reps., some other Dem. candidates might look weak (Maria Cantwell, etc.), but keep in mind they're in Dem. leaning states and will be naturally very tough to beat.

Once we know exactly who's retiring, we should have a better idea altogether. 2004 was killer for the Dems in retirements and the Reps. took great advantage of it; I don't picture the same thing happening again soon.

[A18]

Virginia
If Mark Warner runs, he's a tax hiking liberal. Tie him to the national Democrats and watch him sink.

Hawaii
Incumbent likely to retire. Run the Republican governor, if she isn't running for reelection; I'm not aware of any other good candidates.

West Virginia
If Byrd dies/retires, focus on guns and gay marriage, and maybe send Bush in there for some campaigning.

Rhode Island
Incumbency factor

New York
If Giuliani does not run, sit back, relax, and enjoy losing. If he does: Hillary = carpetbagger.

New Jersey
Incumbent may win gubernatorial election. A Dem would be appointed to fill the vacancy. That person would only be in office for a short period of time, so we don't have to worry about an incumbent. Just get a strong candidate.

Minnesota
Tim Pawlenty would be good, but he'll probably run for reelection. Anyway, run on the incumbent's lackluster Senate record, and maybe that closing Capitol Hill office thing.

California
If Feinstein runs against Arnold, we have no incumbent. Dems are still favored, of course. Run, I dunno, McClintock (sp?) maybe?

Tennessee
Tie opposition to national Democrats

Vermont
Hope the Dems run an opponent to split the vote; run a Republican governor or something

Mississippi
Lott may or may not serve another term. If he doesn't, attack the national Democrats.

Nebraska
This Nelson guy is good, so maybe get him to switch parties. Otherwise, just run a strong candidate, I guess. He's not very vulnerable except for being a Dem in a very Republican state.

Florida
The bad Nelson. Hope Jeb runs; he probably won't, in that case, I don't know who the best candidate would be.

Washington
One word: Rossi

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Virginia
If Mark Warner runs, he's a tax hiking liberal. Tie him to the national Democrats and watch him sink.

Hawaii
Incumbent likely to retire. Run the Republican governor, if she isn't running for reelection; I'm not aware of any other good candidates.

West Virginia
If Byrd dies/retires, focus on guns and gay marriage, and maybe send Bush in there for some campaigning.

Rhode Island
Incumbency factor

New York
If Giuliani does not run, sit back, relax, and enjoy losing. If he does: Hillary = carpetbagger.

New Jersey
Incumbent may win gubernatorial election. A Dem would be appointed to fill the vacancy. That person would only be in office for a short period of time, so we don't have to worry about an incumbent. Just get a strong candidate.

Minnesota
Tim Pawlenty would be good, but he'll probably run for reelection. Anyway, run on the incumbent's lackluster Senate record, and maybe that closing Capitol Hill office thing.

California
If Feinstein runs against Arnold, we have no incumbent. Dems are still favored, of course. Run, I dunno, McClintock (sp?) maybe?

Tennessee
Tie opposition to national Democrats

Vermont
Hope the Dems run an opponent to split the vote; run a Republican governor or something

Mississippi
Lott may or may not serve another term. If he doesn't, attack the national Democrats.

Nebraska
This Nelson guy is good, so maybe get him to switch parties. Otherwise, just run a strong candidate, I guess. He's not very vulnerable except for being a Dem in a very Republican state.

Florida
The bad Nelson. Hope Jeb runs; he probably won't, in that case, I don't know who the best candidate would be.

Washington
One word: Rossi

Virginia: Too late, he already won rural aras

Rhode Island: He's down 20 points against one Democrat

New York:, and so was the guy who won that seat in 1964 and the guy who won that seat in 1970. Face it, it's the carpetbagger seat.  Maybe you could run Keyes. Anyone but Guilani, and it's a landslide. Guilani will make it be a close race before he loses.

California: She's much more conservative than Boxer, who just won by 20 points, you can't beat her.

Vermont: Just look at the Vermont house races. Sanders wins landslides even when a Democrat runs.

Nebraska: He's quite conservative, but there's no reason for him to switch.

Washington: Gore campainging for her, and Rossi is toast.

[Erc]

Guiliani would beat Hillary.  Hands down.  Clinton may be an incumbent now, but Guiliani is Guiliani now.

[Wakie]

Sounds good to me, Wakie.  What do you guys honestly believe will be the net gain/loss for the Democrats or Republicans in 2006?

Will the Democrats pick up 2 or 3 seats?
Will the Republcians get to 60?

A lot depends on what happens over the next 2 years and who the Republicans run.  Based on my candidate list I think the Democrats can get a Net gain of 2-3 seats.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Guiliani would beat Hillary.  Hands down.  Clinton may be an incumbent now, but Guiliani is Guiliani now.

Guilani is very beatable in NY.
What's not going to go over well:
1. His campaigning for Bush
2. His saying that the missing explosives was the fault of the soldiers
3. His pal Kerik's closet full of skeletons

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Virginia
If Byrd dies/retires, focus on guns and gay marriage, and maybe send Bush in there for some campaigning.

Er... you are aware that anyone the WV Dems will run is likely to be pretty socially conservative?

[nini2287]

I know we have some optomistic goals (AZ, VA, MS, ME, OH, NV) but barring a retirement, I don't think we should invest our resources on those races, since the GOP has seasoned incumbents who aren't likely to have Bunning-like collapses.

TX, UT, IN are safe seats even with retirements, no need to invest money there.

As stated before, PA should be our #1 target, I would make sure Casey runs, because I think he would be the only candidate to beat Santorum, with another candidate (Hoeffel, Hafer, etc.) this race is downgraded to tossup/slight lean to Santorum.

RI should be an easy pickup, though I would prefer to have Chafee switch parties rather than running Langverin/Kennedy against him.  Switching parties would embarass the GOP and keep a decent guy in Washington and further secure the House seats (though I wouldn't worry about losing them anyway).

Although the MT Dems are resurgent, I think Gov. Schweitzer could be the only person capable of taking down  Burns, which may be possible considering 2000 wasn't an off-year election and Schweitzer has some experince now.  However, if Schweitzer doesn't run, which he may not considering he just got elected governor, I wouldn't spend many resources in this race.

If Craig Thomas retires, a Cubin vs. Freudenthal race could make WY interesting and considering the state's population, we wouldn't need to spend too much money to make the state competitive.  Granted, this is a state that went nearly 70% for Bush, it may be worth looking at.

I like Ike Skelton to challenge Talent in MO, but he is probably too old/well-respected in the House to run.  Claire McCaskill remains a possiblity, but if neither of them choose to run, I would throw this in with Arizona in the "nice but unrealistic" category.

On the Dem side, MA and CA are safe even if Kennedy and Feinstein retire.

CT is rock-solid Dem with Lieberman, but if he retires, I'd be worried about this seat with 3 popular GOP representatives plus an incredibly popular governor.  However, I don't think Joe will retire anytime soon.

MD and WV will stay Dem if Sarbanes/Byrd run for re-election, but I'm not sure how likely that is.  MD has a good chance of staying Dem with Martin O'Malley, although Michael Steele might "steal" this seat.   WV on the other hand, I'm worried about, as I expect Rep. Capito will run for the Republicans and I would encourage Wise/Mollohan/Rahall to run for us, and in that case we'd have a decent chance of defending the seat.

NJ is an interesting race, with a Corzine retirement.  I don't know how more times the NJ Dems can afford to shoot themselves in the foot (Torcelli, McGreevey), but I wouldn't be afriad to spend resources to make s u re that Andrews/Menedez defend this seat.

I throw DE, NY and HI in the category as "safe unless a certain Republican runs" with Delaware being Rep. Castle, Rudy Guiliani for New York and Gov. Lingle for Hawaii, but I think those seats still lean Democratic, and I'd only spend money there if those Republicans ran.

FL and MN scare me, as they will probably be complete toss-ups, and in fact the Florida seat will lean Republican if Jeb Bush runs.  I would invest a lot of resources into defending Nelson and Dayton regardless of who runs.

NE also scares me though with Gov. Johanns probably out of the picture, I feel like it may lean towards Nelson unless Osborne runs, in which case we're in trouble.  Regardless, I would invest resources on this seat.

I think Conrad will be okay in ND, but if the Republicans find a Thune-type candidate, Conrad may be in trouble, but with this being an off-year election, I wouldn't get too carried away in spending money on this race.

WI and NM fall into the same category of unaccomplished incumbents who will likely be easily re-elected.  I don't think it's worth spending any money on these races unless Kohl or Bingaman retire, in which case I would try to get Dave Obey to run in WI (he may be too old), in which case it should be easy to defend, otherwise WI is a tossup and NM may lean Republican with Heather Wilson likely running for the GOP.  I wouldn't spend resources on these races unless there's a retirement.

WA and MI fall into the category of "Lean Dem for now but tossup if certain Republicans run".  In Washington, Cantwell is vulnerable to Rossi or Jennifer Dunn, and if they run the race becomes a tossup.  With MI, Candice Miller or some other high-powered Republicans run, Stabenow becomes vulnerable, but I think she will probably survive.  Regardless of the GOP candidates, I would invest resources on these races as neither are rock solid for re-election.

[Akno21]

Nini, even if Steele ran for an open Maryland seat, he'd lose considerably. Ehrlich won the election because the Dems ran a terrible campaign, not because his Lt. Gov. pick was anything special. If neccessary, we could run Reps Albert Wynn or Elijah Cummings to ensure that the Dems keep their African-American base.

[Moooooo]

I agree with just about everything you said except....

I like Ike Skelton to challenge Talent in MO, but he is probably too old/well-respected in the House to run.  Claire McCaskill remains a possiblity, but if neither of them choose to run, I would throw this in with Arizona in the "nice but unrealistic" category.

If we run Jay Nixon or Joe Maxwell I think we have a great chance of defeating Talent.

MD has a good chance of staying Dem with Martin O'Malley, although Michael Steele might "steal" this seat.

If Sarbanes does retire and Steele decides to run, we can run Mayor Martin O'Malley and have a good chance of keeping that seat.  Or we could run Kwesi Mfume and lock that seat up for sure.  Either way I dont see the Republicans picking up this seat.  To much money will be focused on getting Ehrlich re-elected in 2006.

FL and MN scare me, as they will probably be complete toss-ups, and in fact the Florida seat will lean Republican if Jeb Bush runs.  I would invest a lot of resources into defending Nelson and Dayton regardless of who runs.

If Jeb runs I would write Nelson a thank you letter for his years served in the senate and wish him luck in the future.

[AuH2O]

The only incumbents I see in any kind of trouble right now (in no order):

Santorum, PA
Nelson, FL
Dayton, MN

The Casey Jr. train is all fueled up, but don't count out Rick just yet.

Nelson and Dayton are both highly vulnerable, but until their opposition is more clear, their exact predicament is unknown. One of the two will probably lose, and both is a very real possibility. Dayton has gone from, to quote Bismarck, a "great, unrecognized incapacity" to a great, recognized incapacity. Though Napoleon III was quite a bit more stable than Evacuatin Dayton.

Mark Warner is the most overrated Democrat in the nation at this point, though Ford, Jr. is up there as well. Oddly, right now I can't help but say Hillary is kind of underrated as a political force, but that's another topic.

Neither Warner nor Ford have any real chance of making it into the Senate, though Ford might even have a better chance than the highly unpopular Warner.

Various other states can become competitive via a strong, but as of now unlikely, candidate announcing a bid.

[A18]

Why do you think it's unlikely Giuliani will run?

[AuH2O]

He's given no indication it's even on his radar. I really hope he does, but at this point I think he wants to run for President in '08.

[A18]

He's given no indication it's even on his radar. I really hope he does, but at this point I think he wants to run for President in '08.

Major to president is pretty big jump. If he wants to run in '08, that's all the more reason to run for governor or senator.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Giulani is probably smart enough to realize tha tthe Religious Right would never let an adulteror who opposes the ban on partial birth abortions be nominated. He will not run for president, and hasn't given any indication he'll do so. All the rumors about it just came from when the GOP convention was announced to take place in NY, many suspected Bush would further exploit 9/11 by dropping Cheney and replacing him with Guilani, thus putting Giuliani in a good position to run in 2008. That didn't happen, therefore the speculation is bullsh**t, Guilani has given no hints he intends to run, and anyone who honestly thinks he can win the nomination anyway is on crack.

As for Dayton, I will not say he is safe, but he is hardly dead in the water as almost every Republican seems to think, his approval ratings are very decent and Mark Kennedy is the Republican Erskine Bowles, there is nothing about him that makes him an exceptially strong candidate and is actually the weakest candidate out of Minnesota's 4 GOP congressmen. And the state GOP did not have a good election last year.

[A18]

WTF? Show me where one Republican on this message board said Dayton is dead in the water.

[Smash255]

Guliani is pro-choice against the PBA ban, pro-gay rights (although he never said pro-marriage he has hinted at it), and  he is pro-gun control.  Now in the GOP primary, what the hell makes anyone think that someone is very socially liberal is going to win the GOP nomination?/

[A18]

The Republicans control Congress. None of that stuff would get to his desk, and he's not stupid enough to alienate the party.

I guess there is the issue of judges, but I dunno.

[Smash255]

The Republicans control Congress. None of that stuff would get to his desk, and he's not stupid enough to alienate the party.

I guess there is the issue of judges, but I dunno.

Who knows whats going to happen in the 06 elections, if things get bad for bush then the congress control won't be as large, but the basic point I was making was that someone as socially liberal as Guliani would never make it past the primaries.  The base of the conservative party are Conservative, especially Socially, Guliani is as more socially liberal than half the Dems in the senate

[Ben.]

MS - May as well run a strawman.  If he'd agree to it I'd run James Earl Jones.  He's political, ex-military, and would just be fun to watch in a debate.

Not so Sure, if Lott runs he's safe but Moore would make it tighter than it has any right being, if Lott dosen't run then with Moore as the candidate it becomes competative... I kid you not!   

[nini2287]

I agree with just about everything you said except....

I like Ike Skelton to challenge Talent in MO, but he is probably too old/well-respected in the House to run.  Claire McCaskill remains a possiblity, but if neither of them choose to run, I would throw this in with Arizona in the "nice but unrealistic" category.

If we run Jay Nixon or Joe Maxwell I think we have a great chance of defeating Talent.

MD has a good chance of staying Dem with Martin O'Malley, although Michael Steele might "steal" this seat.

If Sarbanes does retire and Steele decides to run, we can run Mayor Martin O'Malley and have a good chance of keeping that seat.  Or we could run Kwesi Mfume and lock that seat up for sure.  Either way I dont see the Republicans picking up this seat.  To much money will be focused on getting Ehrlich re-elected in 2006.

FL and MN scare me, as they will probably be complete toss-ups, and in fact the Florida seat will lean Republican if Jeb Bush runs.  I would invest a lot of resources into defending Nelson and Dayton regardless of who runs.

If Jeb runs I would write Nelson a thank you letter for his years served in the senate and wish him luck in the future.

I'll concede to you and Akno's better j udgement on Maryland, but I think Missouri may have moved too far to the right to elect a Democrat (look at the 2002 results, Talent beat an incumbent Democrat with emotions over Mel Carnahan's death still fairly high).

I forgot to add...

I wouldn't bother to challenge Jeffords in VT, he is basically a Democrat and a challenge from the left may split the vote enough to have a Republican take the seat.

I think TN should be a high priority for us, as it would possibly elevate Ford to national status (maybe a notch below Obama) and this may be the best chance to elect him to higher office (Gov seat is fill until 2010, and I don't think he could unseat Alexander in 2008 or whomever the new Republican senator (Zach Wamp?) would be in 2012).  However, I think if Ford runs, Tennessee will be a tossup with maybe a slight lean against us, but certainly a winnable race.