PPP poll of Likely Voters in NC: Romney 48%, Obama 48%

[MorningInAmerica]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/nc-enters-convention-tied-up.html

It's not up on their website, but they've tweeted it

Obama - 48% (-1)
Romney - 48% (+2)

The number in parentheses represents the net change since PPP's last poll in early August, when Obama led Romney 49-46%. Pollster ratings show that PPP has been a bit of an outlier in NC (they're the only pollster in the last 2 months to show Obama with a lead in NC). Remember the chart below does NOT include the recent Elon poll showing Romney leading 47-43% in NC. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-north-carolina-president-romney-vs-obama

Kind of goes back to that whole house effect thing Nate Silver talks about: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/



Edited to add the party ID of this likely voter sample: 47%D, 34%R, 19%I, or D+13 (!).

[後援会]

To be quite fair, having a "house effect" doesn't actually mean a poll is biased or wrong. It just mean it differs from the mean of the polls. Of course, electoral reality may also differ from the mean of the polls.

[MorningInAmerica]

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

[Beet]

This isn't much of a deviation. It's basically the same as the two most recent polls-- the CNN/ORC poll, and the SurveyUSA poll. Both those polls have the race effectively tied and so does PPP. All three are within 1 point of each other, literally.

[MorningInAmerica]

I agree that this poll isn't that big of a deviation. Their last 2 NC polls were though.

Edited to say don't forget that the pollster chart in my original post of NC polls does NOT include the Elon University poll out today showing Romney with a 4 pt NC lead, 47-43%.

[pa2011]

The last PPP poll was taken a week before Romney picked Ryan. So, after the VP pick and the GOP convention, the race remains essentially tied. Again, don't expect Obama to carry North Carolina again. But Romney really needs something to take it off the swing state list. Cause if its this close in North Carolina, safe to assume Obama still holds a a few point  lead in Virginia. 

[MorningInAmerica]

There's this tweet from PPP polls:

‏@ppppolls Romney's net favorability up 7 pts in NC, 5 pts in FL compared to last month. No big horse race shift, but image has improved

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wasn't Mitten's favorables already positive in NC?

[MorningInAmerica]

Wasn't Mitten's favorables already positive in NC?

In their last NC poll from August 5th, it was 42/50%, so -8 pts. Guessing it will be somewhere around. I'm guessing it will be around 46/47%.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe it was different polling firm, but I remembered someone having him positive in NC.

I also remember PPP had him at 29% favorability a firm months ago in NC.

[MorningInAmerica]

It's up on their site now.

Romney's favs are up:
Favorable: 47 (+5)
Unfavorable: 48% (-2)

Obama's job rating:
Approve: 48% (-)
Disapprove: 50% (+1)

Party ID of this LIKELY VOTER poll is D+13. It was D+11 in the record breaking Democratic year of 2008, and was R+1 in 2004.

[Clinton1996]

I highly doubt we'll carry NC again this year, but at least I have solace knowing Romney still hasn't taken it off the battleground map.

[Tender Branson]

I highly doubt we'll carry NC again this year, but at least I have solace knowing Romney still hasn't taken it off the battleground map.

I think that the chances of carrying the state again this year are great. Obama is in a better position there even compared with 2008 and the convention will provide a big turnout boost for the Obama base. Plus: Black and Hispanic registration is UP compared with 2008. So, it looks like the ground game by the Obama campaign is really solid in the state.

[pbrower2a]

Mitt Romney can't win without North Carolina. But considering that it has gone for the Democratic nominee only twice since 1964 it's at least R+3. If the state is a statistical tie, then Romney loses the Presidential election.   

[Devils30]

If NC is this close going into election day, it means Obama wins Virginia early and forces Romney to win  FL, WI, and IA. Yes all 3

[Roma Caput Mundi]

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

Since when does "average of polls" equal to "correct"?

[MorningInAmerica]

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

Since when does "average of polls" equal to "correct"?

Again, where did I say that? If you put quotes around a word, then you should be able to show me where I said that, right? In fact, I'm saying the exact OPPOSITE OF that. Read the red bolded part carefully.

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

[Likely Voter]

So either Romney is ahead by 4 nationally according to Rasmussen or tied in NC according to PPP.

Both cant be true.

[vern1988]

So either Romney is ahead by 4 nationally according to Rasmussen or tied in NC according to PPP.

Both cant be true.

It could be, North Carolina is changing very fast.

[Supersonic]

D+13 and Obama is only tied.

That's not encouraging for him at all.

[JulioMadrid]

D+13 and Obama is only tied.

That's not encouraging for him at all.

Actually, it is.

[HockeyDude]

D+13 and Obama is only tied.

That's not encouraging for him at all.

D +11 in 2008.  Going to be a less Democratic electorate, but North Carolina is trending away from the Republicans.  So... yea, not too much of a deviation, but it just means that Romney +4 poll is probably about right. 

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The GOP never did grap a majority of the registered voters like in GA and other southern states during the 1980's-2000's reallignment. You got a huge swath of populist McCain/Perdue Democrats in the rural areas, and then a bunch of moderate Democrats and Indies in the cities and suburbs that voted Obama/McCrory. Then of course you got the 42%-44% of the vote that appears to be the solid Democratic base. Some of those Obama/McCrory voters were moderate, torie type Republicans scared off by Sarah Palin and the economic crash, they will slide back to Romney. In exchange he will lose some of the populists because he is evul, rich, businessman. The big question is how big are each of those two groups and what turnout will look like.

[Roma Caput Mundi]

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

Since when does "average of polls" equal to "correct"?

Again, where did I say that? If you put quotes around a word, then you should be able to show me where I said that, right? In fact, I'm saying the exact OPPOSITE OF that. Read the red bolded part carefully.

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

Then don't use the deviation from the average of polls to say that PPP leans Dem.

[MorningInAmerica]

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

Since when does "average of polls" equal to "correct"?

Again, where did I say that? If you put quotes around a word, then you should be able to show me where I said that, right? In fact, I'm saying the exact OPPOSITE OF that. Read the red bolded part carefully.

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

Then don't use the deviation from the average of polls to say that PPP leans Dem.

Say what? You do know that that's what the standard deviation from the average of polls shows...that PPP leans Dem compared to other pollsters. So why can't I say that?