Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 30, 2014, 01:13:54 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections
| | |-+  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Tender Branson, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | | |-+  PPP poll of Likely Voters in NC: Romney 48%, Obama 48%
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: PPP poll of Likely Voters in NC: Romney 48%, Obama 48%  (Read 1362 times)
MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 780
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

View Profile
« on: September 02, 2012, 11:13:46 pm »
Ignore

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/nc-enters-convention-tied-up.html

It's not up on their website, but they've tweeted it

Obama - 48% (-1)
Romney - 48% (+2)

The number in parentheses represents the net change since PPP's last poll in early August, when Obama led Romney 49-46%. Pollster ratings show that PPP has been a bit of an outlier in NC (they're the only pollster in the last 2 months to show Obama with a lead in NC). Remember the chart below does NOT include the recent Elon poll showing Romney leading 47-43% in NC. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-north-carolina-president-romney-vs-obama

Kind of goes back to that whole house effect thing Nate Silver talks about: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/



Edited to add the party ID of this likely voter sample: 47%D, 34%R, 19%I, or D+13 (!).
« Last Edit: September 02, 2012, 11:56:48 pm by MorningInAmerica »Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
後援会
koenkai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1283


Political Matrix
E: 0.71, S: -2.52

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2012, 11:15:25 pm »
Ignore

To be quite fair, having a "house effect" doesn't actually mean a poll is biased or wrong. It just mean it differs from the mean of the polls. Of course, electoral reality may also differ from the mean of the polls.
Logged

The opinions and views expressed above are mine alone and do not represent the opinions or views of any other individual, organization, or government.
MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 780
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2012, 11:16:29 pm »
Ignore

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.
Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15906


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2012, 11:18:10 pm »
Ignore

This isn't much of a deviation. It's basically the same as the two most recent polls-- the CNN/ORC poll, and the SurveyUSA poll. Both those polls have the race effectively tied and so does PPP. All three are within 1 point of each other, literally.
Logged

MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 780
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2012, 11:19:33 pm »
Ignore

I agree that this poll isn't that big of a deviation. Their last 2 NC polls were though.

Edited to say don't forget that the pollster chart in my original post of NC polls does NOT include the Elon University poll out today showing Romney with a 4 pt NC lead, 47-43%.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2012, 11:25:37 pm by MorningInAmerica »Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
pa2011
Full Member
***
Posts: 234
View Profile
« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2012, 11:28:52 pm »
Ignore

The last PPP poll was taken a week before Romney picked Ryan. So, after the VP pick and the GOP convention, the race remains essentially tied. Again, don't expect Obama to carry North Carolina again. But Romney really needs something to take it off the swing state list. Cause if its this close in North Carolina, safe to assume Obama still holds a a few point  lead in Virginia. 
Logged
MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 780
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2012, 11:30:00 pm »
Ignore

There's this tweet from PPP polls:

Quote
‏@ppppolls Romney's net favorability up 7 pts in NC, 5 pts in FL compared to last month. No big horse race shift, but image has improved
Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29447
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2012, 11:34:27 pm »
Ignore

Wasn't Mitten's favorables already positive in NC?
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 780
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2012, 11:41:09 pm »
Ignore

Wasn't Mitten's favorables already positive in NC?

In their last NC poll from August 5th, it was 42/50%, so -8 pts. Guessing it will be somewhere around. I'm guessing it will be around 46/47%.
Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29447
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2012, 11:44:14 pm »
Ignore

Maybe it was different polling firm, but I remembered someone having him positive in NC.

I also remember PPP had him at 29% favorability a firm months ago in NC.
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 780
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2012, 11:47:43 pm »
Ignore

It's up on their site now.

Romney's favs are up:
Favorable: 47 (+5)
Unfavorable: 48% (-2)

Obama's job rating:
Approve: 48% (-)
Disapprove: 50% (+1)

Party ID of this LIKELY VOTER poll is D+13. It was D+11 in the record breaking Democratic year of 2008, and was R+1 in 2004.
Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
Clinton1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3464
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2012, 11:59:51 pm »
Ignore

I highly doubt we'll carry NC again this year, but at least I have solace knowing Romney still hasn't taken it off the battleground map.
Logged

Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33730
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2012, 12:03:16 am »

I highly doubt we'll carry NC again this year, but at least I have solace knowing Romney still hasn't taken it off the battleground map.

I think that the chances of carrying the state again this year are great. Obama is in a better position there even compared with 2008 and the convention will provide a big turnout boost for the Obama base. Plus: Black and Hispanic registration is UP compared with 2008. So, it looks like the ground game by the Obama campaign is really solid in the state.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10027
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2012, 12:20:10 am »
Ignore

Mitt Romney can't win without North Carolina. But considering that it has gone for the Democratic nominee only twice since 1964 it's at least R+3. If the state is a statistical tie, then Romney loses the Presidential election.   
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 815
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2012, 12:34:35 am »
Ignore

If NC is this close going into election day, it means Obama wins Virginia early and forces Romney to win  FL, WI, and IA. Yes all 3
Logged
Roma Caput Mundi
italian-boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1227
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.52

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2012, 01:01:31 am »
Ignore

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

Since when does "average of polls" equal to "correct"?
Logged
MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 780
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2012, 01:04:59 am »
Ignore

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

Since when does "average of polls" equal to "correct"?

Again, where did I say that? If you put quotes around a word, then you should be able to show me where I said that, right? In fact, I'm saying the exact OPPOSITE OF that. Read the red bolded part carefully.
I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.
Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
Likely Voter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4607


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2012, 01:17:28 am »
Ignore

So either Romney is ahead by 4 nationally according to Rasmussen or tied in NC according to PPP.

Both cant be true.

Logged

vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 279
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.48, S: 0.87

View Profile
« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2012, 06:56:23 am »
Ignore

So either Romney is ahead by 4 nationally according to Rasmussen or tied in NC according to PPP.

Both cant be true.



It could be, North Carolina is changing very fast.
Logged
Supersonic
SupersonicVenue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5040
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: 0.35


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2012, 08:08:45 am »
Ignore

D+13 and Obama is only tied.

That's not encouraging for him at all.

Logged

Being a Libertarian is like having a fever, either you sweat it out or you die from it.
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6541
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2012, 09:06:58 am »
Ignore

D+13 and Obama is only tied.

That's not encouraging for him at all.



Actually, it is.
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6527
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.19, S: -8.78

View Profile
« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2012, 09:45:32 am »
Ignore

D+13 and Obama is only tied.

That's not encouraging for him at all.



D +11 in 2008.  Going to be a less Democratic electorate, but North Carolina is trending away from the Republicans.  So... yea, not too much of a deviation, but it just means that Romney +4 poll is probably about right. 
Logged

I have an important announcement.  I have officially set a date for the erection
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29447
United States


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: September 03, 2012, 11:33:24 pm »
Ignore

The GOP never did grap a majority of the registered voters like in GA and other southern states during the 1980's-2000's reallignment. You got a huge swath of populist McCain/Perdue Democrats in the rural areas, and then a bunch of moderate Democrats and Indies in the cities and suburbs that voted Obama/McCrory. Then of course you got the 42%-44% of the vote that appears to be the solid Democratic base. Some of those Obama/McCrory voters were moderate, torie type Republicans scared off by Sarah Palin and the economic crash, they will slide back to Romney. In exchange he will lose some of the populists because he is evul, rich, businessman. The big question is how big are each of those two groups and what turnout will look like.
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



Roma Caput Mundi
italian-boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1227
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.52

View Profile
« Reply #23 on: September 04, 2012, 09:02:40 am »
Ignore

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

Since when does "average of polls" equal to "correct"?

Again, where did I say that? If you put quotes around a word, then you should be able to show me where I said that, right? In fact, I'm saying the exact OPPOSITE OF that. Read the red bolded part carefully.
I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

Then don't use the deviation from the average of polls to say that PPP leans Dem.
Logged
MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 780
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

View Profile
« Reply #24 on: September 04, 2012, 09:21:52 am »
Ignore

I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

Since when does "average of polls" equal to "correct"?

Again, where did I say that? If you put quotes around a word, then you should be able to show me where I said that, right? In fact, I'm saying the exact OPPOSITE OF that. Read the red bolded part carefully.
I wasn't implying it meant they were wrong. People are allowed to draw whatever conclusion they would like from PPP's consistent deviation from the average of polls.

Then don't use the deviation from the average of polls to say that PPP leans Dem.


Say what? You do know that that's what the standard deviation from the average of polls shows...that PPP leans Dem compared to other pollsters. So why can't I say that?
Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines