We are Better off today than when they left us...

[JFK-Democrat]

The Republicans think we are either stupid or crazy: two wars on a credit card, housing bubble created by their wall street buddies, failure to capture Bin Laden,  off-shoring, constant threat to turn social security into a 401k style plan, us versus them politics, and the worst president since Hebert Hoover (George W Bush) and they want us to trust them with the presidency again?


We have a very short memory in this country but we haven't forgotten who got us into this mess!

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

And who kept  us in it.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Things are still bad, and Obama has been a disappointment in many respects, but there's no question that the country is in better shape now than it was on January 20, 2009.

[JFK-Democrat]

And who kept  us in it.

Lots of blame to go around, but if the number one priority of the highest ranking member of congress for your party is to make 'Barack Obama a one-term President' then you are clearly part of the problem not the solution.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

And who kept  us in it.

Lots of blame to go around, but if the number one priority of the highest ranking member of congress for your party is to make 'Barack Obama a one-term President' then you are clearly part of the problem not the solution.

I don't have a party, I hate them both.....you haven't been here long enough to know that.

Both sides suck.   Everything that's wrong with the world isn't Bush's fault and all that's good isn't thanks to Obama......

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

We're still in a mess. I don't care who's fault it is. I just want to see our government do something.

[JFK-Democrat]

[/quote]

I don't have a party, I hate them both.....you haven't been here long enough to know that.

Both sides suck.   Everything that's wrong with the world isn't Bush's fault and all that's good isn't thanks to Obama......
[/quote]


Obviously Bush isn't responsible for everything but a lot of this happened on his watch. I wonder what would Republicans be saying/doing if the Democrats were in charge during 9/11 and the financial crisis.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I don't have a party, I hate them both.....you haven't been here long enough to know that.

Both sides suck.   Everything that's wrong with the world isn't Bush's fault and all that's good isn't thanks to Obama......
[/quote]


Obviously Bush isn't responsible for everything but a lot of this happened on his watch. I wonder what would Republicans be saying/doing if the Democrats were in charge during 9/11 and the financial crisis.

[/quote]

No President ever faced what we faced on 9/11....trying to compare what one would have done versus another is an excercise in futility....but have fun guessing what the differences would be if it makes you happy.

[Beet]

We're a lot less "in the mess" than we were on 1/20/2009. We're slowly healing every year and will continue to do so.

[J. J.]

We're a lot less "in the mess" than we were on 1/20/2009. We're slowly healing every year and will continue to do so.

Unemployment has increased slightly over the summer.  The national debt is increasing, of course.  Iran is closer to nuclear weapon. 

I think the argument, "We're better off," would work, it it happens.  We'll wait for the jobs report.

[Likely Voter]

If you change the question to, are you better off than you were 3 1/2years ago or 3 years ago, then the answer is much more likely to be yes. The problem is that much of the s--t hitting the fan happened between the election and the Obama inauguration and the first few months. The economy lost 600k jobs just in the last month of George Bush's presidency.

I think this  is why Bush wasn't at the convention. He reminds people of what it was really like. It makes it harder to paint the picture of the idyllic past  when everything was rosy before Obama destroyed America

[Beet]

We're a lot less "in the mess" than we were on 1/20/2009. We're slowly healing every year and will continue to do so.

Unemployment has increased slightly over the summer.  The national debt is increasing, of course.  Iran is closer to nuclear weapon. 

I think the argument, "We're better off," would work, it it happens.  We'll wait for the jobs report.

The long term trend of the unemployment rate is still down.

Total debt to GDP is decreasing for the first time in decades.

4.5 million jobs have been created since February 2010, and the best policies that can speed that up substantially are monetary and fiscal easing, which Republicans are against.

[stegosaurus]

I've never liked this Reaganism. Who cares if we were or weren't better off four years ago? A better question would be: Will we be better off four years from now? On the current path, the answer to that question is likely to be no.

[J. J.]

We're a lot less "in the mess" than we were on 1/20/2009. We're slowly healing every year and will continue to do so.

Unemployment has increased slightly over the summer.  The national debt is increasing, of course.  Iran is closer to nuclear weapon. 

I think the argument, "We're better off," would work, it it happens.  We'll wait for the jobs report.

The long term trend of the unemployment rate is still down.

Total debt to GDP is decreasing for the first time in decades.

4.5 million jobs have been created since February 2010, and the best policies that can speed that up substantially are monetary and fiscal easing, which Republicans are against.

Misery index

1/09:  7.83  

7/12:  9.71

Unemployment

1/09:  7.80

7/12:  8.30

http://www.miseryindex.us/indexbymonth.aspx?type=UR

National Debt as a % of GDP:

12/31/08:   074.1%

06/30/12:  101.7%

http://www.skymachines.com/US-National-Debt-Per-Capita-Percent-of-GDP-and-by-Presidental-Term.htm

Now, in all fairness, I think a good argument for Obama is that the situation is improving.  Too bad he can't make it, at least so far.  

[Beet]

I've never liked this question much either, although this formulation is slightly better than the other one "are you better off than you were four years ago?" It's like, hey politicians, I did build my own life, so if I'm better off, it's probably not because of you. And if I'm worse off, it's most likely not because of you either. And, I didn't get involved in politics because it makes me better off. Politics makes me worse off- it consumes my time, attention, energy, sometimes even money. I got involved because I care about larger things than myself. I much prefer John F. Kennedy's formulation: "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country." See what he did there? It inverts the selfishness implied by the other question.

On the current path, I do believe we will be better off, economically, four years from now than today. The healing from the financial crisis and the turn of the credit cycle will continue. The main issue is, how fast are we moving forward, and what policies are best to move forward more quickly? And also, what deficit reduction plan will be agreed to between the next President and Congress?

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That's not an argument that things aren't improving. In November 2011, the misery index was 12.87, whereas now it's 9.71.

Also, the misery index assumes a false equivalence between unemployment and inflation. By this index, we were less miserable in July 2009 (misery index 7.40) than June 2000 (misery index 7.73).

Any index that has us better off in July 2009 than June 2000 is simply absurd.

As for the national debt as a percent of GDP... firstly, intragovernmental debts really should not be counted. Secondly, total debt to GDP is more important than just the national debt, and as I've said, it's falling for the first time in decades.

[J. J.]

That's not an argument that things aren't improving. In November 2011, the misery index was 12.87, whereas now it's 9.71.

So Obama's argument is now, "I'm repairing the damage that I created."

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Well, it actually got Carter elected in 1976, and helped get Reagan re-elected in 1984.  It was invented by a Democrat, BTW. 

Basically, the economy has to look like it is improving.   If there is an increase in unemployment, it won't look that way. 

Obama can't say, "Look how bad it was when I took office," because it's worse now.  He can say, "It's going to be getting better," if unemployment goes down.  We get good job numbers Friday, he can.  We get worse job numbers, he turns into Jimmy Carter in 1980, at least as far as the economy is concerned.  Even numbers will weaken him, but he might be able to survive it.

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The fall might indicate a failing economy.  People can't borrow.

[Beet]

Stop living in the late '70s and early '80s. The index is absurd, it doesn't matter that it seemed relevant 30 years ago. A lot of things that seemed important then were just jokes.

No one knows what Friday's employment figure will be. Of course it is important, but it's just one report. I'm talking about the record of the past 28 or 29 months... which is job growth of 4.5 million.

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It doesn't. Interest rates are at historic lows, so credit-worthy people can borrow. We don't want credit-unworthy people borrowing, as that would lead to the same thing that got us into the mess in the first place. Rather, it indicates healing where the fundamental causes of the economic crisis are being slowly but surely remedied.

[GLPman]

Both parties are responsible for the mess. Having said that, I don't see how anyone can characterize the "recovery" under Obama as better than disappointing.

[Beet]

Pretty much every economic indicator has improved since the end of the recession in mid-2009. Unemployment is down, unemployment claims are down, jobs created are up, corporate earnings are up, total debt is down, the deficit as a percentage of GDP is down, GDP growth is up, credit card and mortgage delinquencies are down, TARP has gone from a $700 billion bailout to $66 billion with a project profit, the banks are in better shape, AIG has turned to no taxpayer loss, Fannie and Freddie have gone from multibillion-dollar quarterly losses to profits, the housing market has bottomed and is turning, the automakers are revived and sales are growing, manufacturing is up, industrial production is up, consumer spending is up, real personal income is up, exports are up, we are more energy independent, and interest rates are down.

Policy is better. The financial system is better regulated, banks are required to have higher capital, more children are covered under health insurance, another estimated 30 million people will be covered by health insurance at no cost to the deficit, standards have been raised for for-profit student loan institutions, numerous successes have been achieved in foreign policy. The only major outstanding policy incomplete is long-term deficit reduction, but there is already an outline for a deal based on the Obama-Boehner agreement of 2011 and/or Simpson/Bowles.

So many predictions haven't come to pass. The predictions of bond market vigilantism from not just the likes of Niall Ferguson but more respected names such as John Taylor back in 2009-- didn't happen. The predictions the economy would never recover without a much deeper liquidation from people like Peter Schiff and Karl Denninger-- didn't happen. The predictions of high inflation-- didn't happen. The predictions of a double-dip recession that seemed to reoccur every season-- didn't happen.

So many disasters have been survived or averted. The Arab Spring. The Japanese tsunami. The euro crisis every season.

The ironic thing about Obama? Back in early 2008, when he was an overrated empty suit with nothing but a couple of corporate slogans that everybody now admits was hollow and false, when he hadn't achieved anything in his life worthy of being his party's Presidential nominee, and much of what he had achieved frankly was aided by a kind of affirmative action, everybody loved him, he walked on water, he could do no wrong. But after 3.5 years of actually working so hard and achieving so much good substantively for this country, it seems that a lot of swing and moderate voters aren't impressed at all. They loved him when they should have hated him and they hate him when they should at least recognize that he turned this country around, even if we're still travelling too slowly.

"Disappointing." Sigh. In the end, that's what it all comes down to. "Disappointing." Life may not be fair, but you sure wish it was.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Beet, why don't you work for the Obama campaign?

[Beet]

Beet, why don't you work for the Obama campaign?

I'd love to work for the campaign. Of course there's only two months left in this one.

[J. J.]

Stop living in the late '70s and early '80s. The index is absurd, it doesn't matter that it seemed relevant 30 years ago. A lot of things that seemed important then were just jokes.

No one knows what Friday's employment figure will be. Of course it is important, but it's just one report. I'm talking about the record of the past 28 or 29 months... which is job growth of 4.5 million.

Well, the only bad thing about the misery index is that it doesn't take into account deflation, which usually wasn't a problem (and isn't currently).  It was a potential problem in 2008.  The problem, from a political standpoint, is that no president wants to campaign on the slogan, "I helped raise prices," even though that can be very good in some circumstances.  (And Obama deserves some credit for preventing deflation.)

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Well, I will agree with you that is a cause, but the solution takes value away from voters.  That also isn't something that Obama could claim credit for or want to emphasize if he could.  "I lowered the value of you house" is not a good campaign slogan either.  Further, his "solution" made it worse.

The problem is that it looks like the economy got worse under Obama, and is not improving.  Good job number could change that.  

And, BTW, most of what you posted regarding TARP occurred under Bush.

[Gustaf]

Pretty much every economic indicator has improved since the end of the recession in mid-2009. Unemployment is down, unemployment claims are down, jobs created are up, corporate earnings are up, total debt is down, the deficit as a percentage of GDP is down, GDP growth is up, credit card and mortgage delinquencies are down, TARP has gone from a $700 billion bailout to $66 billion with a project profit, the banks are in better shape, AIG has turned to no taxpayer loss, Fannie and Freddie have gone from multibillion-dollar quarterly losses to profits, the housing market has bottomed and is turning, the automakers are revived and sales are growing, manufacturing is up, industrial production is up, consumer spending is up, real personal income is up, exports are up, we are more energy independent, and interest rates are down.

Policy is better. The financial system is better regulated, banks are required to have higher capital, more children are covered under health insurance, another estimated 30 million people will be covered by health insurance at no cost to the deficit, standards have been raised for for-profit student loan institutions, numerous successes have been achieved in foreign policy. The only major outstanding policy incomplete is long-term deficit reduction, but there is already an outline for a deal based on the Obama-Boehner agreement of 2011 and/or Simpson/Bowles.

So many predictions haven't come to pass. The predictions of bond market vigilantism from not just the likes of Niall Ferguson but more respected names such as John Taylor back in 2009-- didn't happen. The predictions the economy would never recover without a much deeper liquidation from people like Peter Schiff and Karl Denninger-- didn't happen. The predictions of high inflation-- didn't happen. The predictions of a double-dip recession that seemed to reoccur every season-- didn't happen.

So many disasters have been survived or averted. The Arab Spring. The Japanese tsunami. The euro crisis every season.

The ironic thing about Obama? Back in early 2008, when he was an overrated empty suit with nothing but a couple of corporate slogans that everybody now admits was hollow and false, when he hadn't achieved anything in his life worthy of being his party's Presidential nominee, and much of what he had achieved frankly was aided by a kind of affirmative action, everybody loved him, he walked on water, he could do no wrong. But after 3.5 years of actually working so hard and achieving so much good substantively for this country, it seems that a lot of swing and moderate voters aren't impressed at all. They loved him when they should have hated him and they hate him when they should at least recognize that he turned this country around, even if we're still travelling too slowly.

"Disappointing." Sigh. In the end, that's what it all comes down to. "Disappointing." Life may not be fair, but you sure wish it was.

I especially agree with the bolded part. I was happy to oppose Obama in 2008 and I view him more favourably now.