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| | |-+  2012 House Election Polls (Moderator: Tender Branson)
| | | |-+  FL-various: Republicans lead in 10, 13, 18, 22, 26
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Author Topic: FL-various: Republicans lead in 10, 13, 18, 22, 26  (Read 857 times)
krazen1211
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« on: September 05, 2012, 01:20:36 pm »
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http://stpetepolls.org/surveys/election_2012_october3_congress_general.html


In the race for Representative in Congress from District 2 do you support Republican Steve Southerland or Democrat Al Lawson?
                                    Responses: 450 (± 4.6% margin of error at a 95% confidence level)
   Steve Southerland:    45.7%   
   Al Lawson:            46.5%   
   Undecided:             7.8%   

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 9 do you support Republican Todd Long or Democrat Alan Grayson?
                                    Responses: 363 (± 5.1% margin of error at a 95% confidence level)
   Todd Long:            42.2%   
   Alan Grayson:         45.0%   
   Undecided:            12.8%   

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 10 do you support Republican Daniel Webster or Democrat Val B. Demings?
                                    Responses: 498 (± 4.4% margin of error at a 95% confidence level)
   Daniel Webster:       51.4%   
   Val B. Demings:       40.0%   
   Undecided:             8.6%   

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 13 do you support Republican C.W. Bill Young or Democrat Jessica Ehrlich?
                                    Responses: 533 (± 4.3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level)
   C.W. Bill Young:      48.7%   
   Jessica Ehrlich:      39.8%   
   Undecided:            11.5%               

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 16 do you support Republican Vern Buchanan or Democrat Keith Fitzgerald?
                                    Responses: 494 (± 4.4% margin of error at a 95% confidence level)
   Vern Buchanan:        55.2%   
   Keith Fitzgerald:     38.3%   
   Undecided:             6.5%

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 18 do you support Republican Allen West or Democrat Patrick Murphy?
                                    Responses: 902 (± 3.3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level)
   Allen West:           52.6%   
   Patrick Murphy:       40.6%   
   Undecided:             6.8%   

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 22 do you support Republican Adam Hasner or Democrat Lois Frankel?
                                    Responses: 407 (± 4.9% margin of error at a 95% confidence level)
   Adam Hasner:          44.6%   
   Lois Frankel:         44.3%   
   Undecided:            11.2%

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 26 do you support Republican David Rivera, Democrat Joe Garcia,
  No Party Candidate Jose Peixoto or No Party Candidate Angel Fernandez? 
                                    Responses: 473 (± 4.5% margin of error at a 95% confidence level)
   David Rivera:          43.4%   
   Joe Garcia:            40.5%   
   Jose Peixoto:           2.8%   
   Angel Fernandez:        1.6%   
   Undecided:             11.8%   









http://www.stpetepolls.org/home/surveys/september-2012---november-6-2012-general-election-state-and-congressional-races


In the race for Representative in Congress from District 3 do you support Republican Ted Yoho or Democrat J.R. Gaillot?
 Ted Yoho:          55.9%    
 J.R. Gaillot:        30.9%    
 Undecided:         13.2%                                        

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 9 do you support Republican Todd Long or Democrat Alan Grayson?
 Todd Long:         41.0%    
 Alan Grayson:    45.8%    
 Undecided:         13.2%                                        

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 12 do you support Republican Gus Michael Bilirakis, Democrat Jonathan Michael Snow, No Party Candidate Paul Sidney Elliott or No Party Candidate John Russell?
 Gus Michael Bilirakis:        56.5%    
 Jonathan Michael Snow:     27.1%    
 Paul Sidney Elliott:              2.2%    
 John Russell:                      2.0%    
 Undecided:                        12.3%                            

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 13 do you support Republican C.W. Bill Young or Democrat Jessica Ehrlich?
 C.W. Bill Young:                50.1%    
 Jessica Ehrlich:                  38.6%    
 Undecided:                         11.3%                                        

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 14 do you support Republican Evelio EJ Otero or Democrat Kathy Castor?
 Evelio EJ Otero:               32.2%    
 Kathy Castor:                  59.2%    
 Undecided:                       8.6%                                        

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 16 do you support Republican Vern Buchanan or Democrat Keith Fitzgerald?
 Vern Buchanan:            55.6%    
 Keith Fitzgerald:           37.0%    
 Undecided:                    7.4%                                        

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 18 do you support Republican Allen West or Democrat Patrick Murphy?
 Allen West:             48.7%    
 Patrick Murphy:       42.6%    
 Undecided:                8.7%                                        

In the race for Representative in Congress from District 22 do you support Republican Adam Hasner or Democrat Lois Frankel?
 Adam Hasner:         41.0%    
 Lois Frankel:           46.6%    
 Undecided:             12.4%                                        
« Last Edit: October 08, 2012, 01:19:14 pm by krazen1211 »Logged
Napoleon
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« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2012, 01:36:29 pm »
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Grayson!
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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2012, 02:30:48 pm »
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In the race for Representative in Congress from District 9 do you support Republican Todd Long or Democrat Alan Grayson?
 Todd Long:         41.0%   
 Alan Grayson:    45.8%   
 Undecided:         13.2%

Ohhhh hahahaha man. This is a district that went 60% for Obama and 39% McCain.
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« Reply #3 on: September 05, 2012, 03:20:06 pm »
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What about Rivera down in Miami-Dade?
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« Reply #4 on: September 05, 2012, 03:23:22 pm »
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In the race for Representative in Congress from District 9 do you support Republican Todd Long or Democrat Alan Grayson?
 Todd Long:         41.0%   
 Alan Grayson:    45.8%   
 Undecided:         13.2%

Ohhhh hahahaha man. This is a district that went 60% for Obama and 39% McCain.
I think Florida Republicans may have inadvertently drawn the most Democratic Bush/Obama district possible without crassly gerrymandered lines. Because yes, this district actually narrowly voted for George W Bush in 2004 (but not 2000, I think, based on Osceola County's swing between those two elections.)

I kind of wonder about the district selection here. Who gives a damn about the 3rd and 12th districts? How about including the 2nd or 26th instead?
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« Reply #5 on: September 05, 2012, 05:06:26 pm »
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In the race for Representative in Congress from District 9 do you support Republican Todd Long or Democrat Alan Grayson?
 Todd Long:         41.0%   
 Alan Grayson:    45.8%   
 Undecided:         13.2%

Ohhhh hahahaha man. This is a district that went 60% for Obama and 39% McCain.
I think Florida Republicans may have inadvertently drawn the most Democratic Bush/Obama district possible without crassly gerrymandered lines. Because yes, this district actually narrowly voted for George W Bush in 2004 (but not 2000, I think, based on Osceola County's swing between those two elections.)

I kind of wonder about the district selection here. Who gives a damn about the 3rd and 12th districts? How about including the 2nd or 26th instead?


I'm currently studying in the 2nd and I'm afraid to tell you it won't be interesting at all. The Democrat, Al Lawson, is a black Tallahassee liberal in a district that only could have been won by a blue dog (like the 2nd place candidate, Leo Bembry) in a good Democratic year. That and Southerland hasn't really screwed up more then average for a tea-partier so it would be hard to dislodge him. Interesting fact, one of my professors ran against him in the primary and got last place.
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2012, 11:27:37 am »
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I don't care if it's narrow, a win is a win, and ALAN GRAYSON is back in Congress! Yeah!
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« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2012, 08:55:30 pm »
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What about Rivera down in Miami-Dade?

Because the polling agency that conducts the polls rarely goes outside of St. Pete; they're typically local/Tampa Bay polls, and it's surprising for them to do other Florida polls.



I'd expect the West/Murphy and (hopefully) the Buchanan/Fitzgerald races to tighten; Young/Ehrlich will be interesting as well, since Ehrlich is actually campaigning and raising money (more than Young).
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2012, 09:11:58 pm »
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I don't want Alan Grayson or Allen West back in Congress. Two sides of the same coin.
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« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2012, 09:48:57 pm »
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I thought Val Demings had a chance?
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2012, 10:15:20 pm »
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It should be said that in the local GOP primaries this pollster was accurate in the larger races, but it was really inaccurate at down ballot races. Take that as you will.
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2012, 02:25:19 pm »
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I am working on the Hasner campaign, and I can tell you, our internal polling shows us to be ahead with indies, and even moderate Democrats. Frankel's legacy as Mayor, and her personality will sink her. It will be an extremely tight race, and I expect I will still be at the Hasner victory/defeat party come the day after the election Wink.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2012, 01:21:13 pm »
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Mr. Allen West is dominating in the latest poll. Grayson's lead is narrowing in 9.

Interestingly, 2 and 26 are moving in opposite directions.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2012, 01:26:05 pm »
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think Florida Republicans may have inadvertently drawn the most Democratic Bush/Obama district possible without crassly gerrymandered lines. Because yes, this district actually narrowly voted for George W Bush in 2004 (but not 2000, I think, based on Osceola County's swing between those two elections.)

I kind of wonder about the district selection here. Who gives a damn about the 3rd and 12th districts? How about including the 2nd or 26th instead?



Somehow they seem to have acquired your feedback.
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2012, 03:10:30 pm »
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Cool

They have Lawson up but Frankel trailing and Garcia leading by a lot less than everybody else. Hmmm...
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2012, 12:45:39 pm »
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Just for entertainment's sake, I would love to see Alan Grayson and Allen West in the same congress.

That should make for some interesting exchanges.
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