Texas future in elections

[jman123]

I find Texas interesting. Do you think that Texas might slowly trend more democratic as a result of the latinos there?

[5280]

50/50, if more retirees move there, then it would counter balance the Latinos.  Secondly, the GOP is slowly making inroads on them so it will be tough.

[greenforest32]

Even though it has demographic trends favorable to Democrats, Texas has some of the lowest voter turnout in the country (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=154608.0) and I think that will keep it from being competitive for quite a bit of time.

[Vosem]

Not this year, or 2016, or 2020 (without a Democratic landslide where Democrats make significant inroads among Republicans). Eventually, who knows? American politics tends to spin around its own axis.

[JFK-Democrat]

Texas will be a swing state in 2020 or 2024, we just need to get those Hispanics registered then put a permanent lock on the electoral college, resulting in the death of the new Dixiecrats aka Republican party. When we get a real opposition party that cares more about the country than winning elections we can get back to getting things accomplished!

[5280]

Texas will be a swing state in 2020 or 2024, we just need to get those Hispanics registered then put a permanent lock on the electoral college, resulting in the death of the new Dixiecrats aka Republican party. When we get a real opposition party that cares more about the country than winning elections we can get back to getting things accomplished!

That's ironic, since Republicans only want to win elections, the Democrats have to pander to the Latino vote so they can win elections also?

[MATTROSE94]

It is possible that Texas will go Democratic if Julian Castro ever runs for president due to the higher turnout among Hispanic voters, but as many people said on this thred in earlier posts, the Republicans are slowly beginning to court Hispanic voters in Texas that might have otherwise registered as Democrats.

[greenforest32]

Some interesting stats from the recent 538 article on Texas:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/a-sense-of-waiting-for-godot-for-texas-democrats/

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[Indy Texas]

So far, the Texas GOP has avoided alienating/infuriating Hispanics in the way, say, the California Republicans did. They've managed to put together a decent bench of Hispanic politicians at the local level, particularly in the Corpus Christi area.

The Republicans' weakness in Texas is their supermajority status in the Legislature. You can't have that big of a party without developing cracks that the other side can exploit. Republicans played liberal and conservative Democrats off one another in the '70s and '80s. By the '90s, the conservative Democrats were gone.

If the Democrats are smart, they'll use the Republicans' suburban-rural divide against them on issues like transportation and water resources (which are going to be a serious issue here in coming years). Rural Republicans here don't share the same visceral hatred of public spending that the ones in the suburbs do because they know government is what fixes their roads and what's going to make sure they have enough water for their crops and livestock. They don't live in the voluntaryist world of private schools and gated communities funded by user fees and private security guards like the suburbanites do.

[greenforest32]

Another interesting article on this:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324883604578397021579876246.html





Makes you wonder what the Texas vote would look like if it had 65% to 75% voter turnout instead of its current 50%ish figure. But that would require more early voting and online plus election-day registration and I doubt any of that is likely.

[greenforest32]

Another article

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-08/texas-turns-battleground-as-cowbow-boots-win-hispanics.html

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?

Aren't permanent residents eligible for naturalization?

[Skill and Chance]

It should drift left a couple of PVI points per decade as Hispanic registration increases.  I doubt it ever becomes a D-leaning state and could actually move back right if climate change is a more serious issue in national elections.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I doubt that the current trends will hold although if they do I'm sure Texas would be a swing state by the 2030s at most. By then there most likely will have been a realignment of some sort that shakes up the bases. For all we know Texas could be D+9 in 2040.

In the near future, I think it will shift to the left slowly but surely. I could see it being where Georgia is now in a couple years. (Around R+6, touted as a potential D pickup).

[illegaloperation]

The Democrats now have a group in Texas that works year-round to turn Texas into a battleground state by turning out the Hispanic votes. Hispanic turnout significantly lags behind white turnout.

Had the Democrats not lift a finger, Texas will turn into a battleground state in 2028 or 2032, but they are doing a lot more than lift a finger.

With this group, Texas will turn into a battleground state in 2020 or 2024.

Texas will likely NOT become a swing state until 2040.

In other words, in the immediate future, Democratic presidents will only be able to win Texas under very favorable circumstances. It certainly won't be able to swing the election so not yet a swing state.

Texas will be then what North Carolina is now: winnable for Democrats, but doesn't change the result of the election.

[PJ]

Hillary Clinton could win it, and so could Julian Castro if he ran around 2028. I personally don't think he's well known enough now. I do remember reading about an organization who's goal is to make TX a democratic state. I could become a swing state by the 2030's and almost certainly would be in the 2040's, based on democratic trends and the party's current efforts to make it dem territory. If there is a close election in the 2040's, TX could be the only state that mattered.