According to ADP, US adds 201,000 jobs in August

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/09/06/adp-jobs-report-destroys-expectations-201k-new-jobs-surpasses-all-estimates/

their estimation is well over expectations

Note: this is an estimate from a firm that has OVERESTIMATED in previous months. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'll love to see krazen or CARL's reaction.

[Adam Griffin]

This is obviously excellent and very unexpected in a month like August, making it even more powerful.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0yXqU-w9U0

*cue the Republican chorus line of "it doesn't matter, Obama is still a failure" in 3....2....1....*

[Supersonic]

"It doesn't matter, Obama is still a failure".

[Lief 🗽]

Eh, let's wait for the official numbers. They often don't line up with ADP's.

[後援会]

Eh, let's wait for the official numbers. They often don't line up with ADP's.

Yeah. ADP has uh, been significantly more optimistic than the BLS in the last few months. Like, 201k is about what they reported for the last two months. Probably a weird seasonable adjustment.

[Adam Griffin]

Eh, let's wait for the official numbers. They often don't line up with ADP's.

ADP has overestimated payroll growth in three of the last five months by an average spread of 77,000 jobs.. As long as we stay within that margin, this is still relatively good news.

[MorningInAmerica]

Eh, let's wait for the official numbers. They often don't line up with ADP's.

Hmph. I agree with Lief.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Eh, let's wait for the official numbers. They often don't line up with ADP's.

Wasn't aware of that.  I'll change the thread title.

[MorningInAmerica]

Eh, let's wait for the official numbers. They often don't line up with ADP's.

ADP has overestimated payroll growth in three of the last five months by an average spread of 77,000 jobs.. As long as we stay within that margin, this is still relatively good news.

How is this good news? 124K new jobs doesn't keep up with population growth, which won't budge the unemployment numbers. It's more of the same.

[Adam Griffin]

Eh, let's wait for the official numbers. They often don't line up with ADP's.

ADP has overestimated payroll growth in three of the last five months by an average spread of 77,000 jobs.. As long as we stay within that margin, this is still relatively good news.

How is this good news? 124K new jobs doesn't keep up with population growth, which won't budge the unemployment numbers. It's more of the same.

Do you expect a breakout with Congress sitting on their hands? Also, job growth typically lulls in the month of August. If it stays the same as it has been over the past 2-3 months, then it is good news because it may indicate a stronger-than-expected Q4.

[Likely Voter]

So it appears that the August report will either show status quo or an improvement. Neither of which would (as many Republicans were hoping) "kill" a potential Obama bounce.

I suspect that the report will be like last month's (good news/bad news), which really had no effect on the race

[後援会]

Eh, let's wait for the official numbers. They often don't line up with ADP's.

ADP has overestimated payroll growth in three of the last five months by an average spread of 77,000 jobs.. As long as we stay within that margin, this is still relatively good news.

How is this good news? 124K new jobs doesn't keep up with population growth, which won't budge the unemployment numbers. It's more of the same.

Industry median projections were 115-120k jobs. So that may be really what we're getting.

Obama does have one advantage in that he probably already knows what the numbers are. So his speech will..probably reflect them.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I hope they're right. I'll wait for the official numbers.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Eh, let's wait for the official numbers. They often don't line up with ADP's.

ADP has overestimated payroll growth in three of the last five months by an average spread of 77,000 jobs.. As long as we stay within that margin, this is still relatively good news.

How is this good news? 124K new jobs doesn't keep up with population growth, which won't budge the unemployment numbers. It's more of the same.

Industry median projections were 115-120k jobs. So that may be really what we're getting.

Obama does have one advantage in that he probably already knows what the numbers are. So his speech will..probably reflect them.

Didn't they get it dead on last month? On Bloomberg they reported 163,000 jobs added, and the government reported the same amount exactly the next day.

[old timey villain]

This whole thread is a perfect example of the "hope for the worst" mentality among so many Republicans.

ADP comes out with good numbers. "Not so fast!" say all the Republicans. "Good news like this just can't be right because it disrupts my worldview that Obama is bad for the economy. Plus, if things get worse, Romney has a better chance of beating Obama!"

It's made me sick the past four years listening to Republicans cheer bad economic news and use it as ammo against the president. Do you think Democrats during the Bush years cheered every time a soldier died in Iraq or Afghanistan? And to make it even worse, they have deliberately blocked measures to help stimulate the economy, just to spite the guy who won't give them a blank check to do what they want.

If this election has taught me anything, it's that many in the GOP care more about getting revenge on Obama than they do about helping the country.

(That being said, the figure it good but I won't start cheering until the official report comes out tomorrow.)

[Fuzzybigfoot]

And CNN money says it was more along the line of 120,000, but we won't know until tomorrow. 

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

This whole thread is a perfect example of the "hope for the worst" mentality among so many Republicans.

ADP comes out with good numbers. "Not so fast!" say all the Republicans. "Good news like this just can't be right because it disrupts my worldview that Obama is bad for the economy. Plus, if things get worse, Romney has a better chance of beating Obama!"

It's made me sick the past four years listening to Republicans cheer bad economic news and use it as ammo against the president. Do you think Democrats during the Bush years cheered every time a soldier died in Iraq or Afghanistan? And to make it even worse, they have deliberately blocked measures to help stimulate the economy, just to spite the guy who won't give them a blank check to do what they want.

If this election has taught me anything, it's that many in the GOP care more about getting revenge on Obama than they do about helping the country.

(That being said, the figure it good but I won't start cheering until the official report comes out tomorrow.)

I don't really see it.

[MorningInAmerica]

This whole thread is a perfect example of the "hope for the worst" mentality among so many Republicans.

ADP comes out with good numbers. "Not so fast!" say all the Republicans. "Good news like this just can't be right because it disrupts my worldview that Obama is bad for the economy. Plus, if things get worse, Romney has a better chance of beating Obama!"

It's made me sick the past four years listening to Republicans cheer bad economic news and use it as ammo against the president. Do you think Democrats during the Bush years cheered every time a soldier died in Iraq or Afghanistan? And to make it even worse, they have deliberately blocked measures to help stimulate the economy, just to spite the guy who won't give them a blank check to do what they want.

If this election has taught me anything, it's that many in the GOP care more about getting revenge on Obama than they do about helping the country.

(That being said, the figure it good but I won't start cheering until the official report comes out tomorrow.)

This whole comment is a perfect example of how whenever a Republican  reminds a Democrat that the economy is not improving quickly enough to keep pace with population growth, they get accused of "rooting for decline." Facts are stubborn, and reporting and repeating poor economic news is inevitable in this type of an economy. No one in this post is cheering on poor job growth, so you're projecting a very personal interpretation of what was being said. What was being discussed was that the original thread title had made it seem as though the 201K number from ADP was an official number, hence the changed title of the thread. It's perfectly fair to point out that ADP has deviated from official Labor Dept statistics in the past, and it's perfectly fair to point out that 100K jobs per month won't cut it. I know that Democrats hate the economy has fared so terribly under a Democratic president. So do I. But these are facts. Despite made up visions of Republicans rooting for failure.

[sentinel]

This whole thread is a perfect example of the "hope for the worst" mentality among so many Republicans.

ADP comes out with good numbers. "Not so fast!" say all the Republicans. "Good news like this just can't be right because it disrupts my worldview that Obama is bad for the economy. Plus, if things get worse, Romney has a better chance of beating Obama!"

It's made me sick the past four years listening to Republicans cheer bad economic news and use it as ammo against the president. Do you think Democrats during the Bush years cheered every time a soldier died in Iraq or Afghanistan? And to make it even worse, they have deliberately blocked measures to help stimulate the economy, just to spite the guy who won't give them a blank check to do what they want.

If this election has taught me anything, it's that many in the GOP care more about getting revenge on Obama than they do about helping the country.

(That being said, the figure it good but I won't start cheering until the official report comes out tomorrow.)

I see what you're getting at in regards to national politics, etc, but I don't see that on this thread...just sayin...

[old timey villain]

Sorry folks, didn't mean to go on a rant. But I stand by what I said.

I don't think I'm spinning a fairy tale when we have Mitch McConnell on record saying "Our number one goal is to make Barack Obama a one term president." Or when the Republican House refuses to raise the debt ceiling, full well knowing the implications, after doing it several times under President Bush. But that's old news.

Anyway, no jobs number will be a true game changer unless its over 250K or under 50K. Tomorrow's report will likely not change the game that much, but could be a net positive for Obama if its close to ADPs numbers. A strong number will certainly give credence to Obama's speech tonight and poke some holes in Romney's message. But basically we're at the point where there aren't likely to be many true game changers. The perception of the economy is baked into the cake.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

No one is rooting for bad job numbers... what kind of person do you think I am? I want America to succeed whether Obama is president or someone else, and if we did gain 201,000 jobs last month, I will be damn happy. It's frankly sickening to see every thread in this subforum turn into a partisan b*tchfest.

[5280]

What sectors were the job gains in?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

No one is rooting for bad job numbers... what kind of person do you think I am? I want America to succeed whether Obama is president or someone else, and if we did gain 201,000 jobs last month, I will be damn happy. It's frankly sickening to see every thread in this subforum turn into a partisan b*tchfest.

[Likely Voter]

It would be nice if we could have a separate forum for all the partisan hacks and the rest of us (regardless of who we might support) can discuss politics and the campaign objectively.