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| | |-+  Which state next to come off battleground list?
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Question: Which state next to come off battleground list?
NC   -12 (19.7%)
FL   -0 (0%)
IA   -2 (3.3%)
VA   -0 (0%)
CO   -0 (0%)
OH   -0 (0%)
WI   -4 (6.6%)
NH   -8 (13.1%)
NV   -27 (44.3%)
None/all will remain battlegrounds   -8 (13.1%)
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Total Voters: 61

Author Topic: Which state next to come off battleground list?  (Read 1575 times)
Likely Voter
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« on: September 06, 2012, 07:19:08 pm »
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This week we have seen the GOP Superpacs pull out of MI and PA. Romney was already not spending there, leaving just nine states being fought over. Both sides are spending in eight states, with the GOP side also now spending in WI (following the Ryan pick).

So which above state is the next one to fall off the battleground list, or will they all stay on the list all the way to the election?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2012, 07:22:19 pm »
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North Carolina and New Hampshire will drop. The others will stay.
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2012, 07:22:48 pm »
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Nevada.

I think New Hampshire will surprise us; in fact, I think it's Romney's best opportunity for a pickup after NC and IN.
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Lief
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2012, 07:35:06 pm »
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I doubt any of these will drop, at least not until October.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2012, 07:41:13 pm »
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North Carolina.
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2012, 07:41:25 pm »
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I voted for Nevada.

I think Obama will win Nevada.  I think that all the talking heads think that Obama will win Nevada.  I think that all the polls show at least a 3-point lead in Nevada.  The housing prices there have tanked worse than anywhere except Florida.  Folks seem to think, perhaps correctly, that decisions made by the Securities and Exchange Commission, particular those GOP appointees, led to the deregulation of the housing market that led to the subprime mortgage crisis.  I think that the 12% unemployment rate there is on of the highest in the nation and that they blame much of it on Republican policies.  

Too bad, really.  I've been to Las Vegas several times.  Hell, I was married in Vegas.  And I've spent more than a few weekends in Reno as well.  And I've tooled around Carson City, Elko, and the interior.  It's a lonely desert country full of mullets, cigarette addicts, gambling, prostitution, and general free-wheeling individualism.  It's the sort of place that Republicans ought to be able to easily count on.  But, to be honest, Republicans have made some decisions that cost Nevadans greatly.  We reap what we sow.  And there ain't much to sow in Nevada except Money and Hardship.  It comes in waves.  Now is a hardship time, and it'll be blamed on the GOP.  

In my prediction map, I put Nevada in Obama's camp long ago, and I have never even thought about changing it.
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Mynheer Peeperkorn
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2012, 07:59:48 pm »
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I can see Georgia, Indiana and Montana becoming battle states in the next weeks.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2012, 08:06:16 pm »
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None, MI would stay on my battleground list.
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J. J.

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« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2012, 08:10:32 pm »
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I can see Georgia, Indiana and Montana becoming battle states in the next weeks.

I wish, but that's not going to happen.
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« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2012, 08:15:15 pm »
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Awaiting Obama's speech tonight, this might change, but as of now I do not see any more states losing their battleground status.

It is interesting, though, to hear that Romney has pulled out of PA and MI.
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« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2012, 08:21:37 pm »
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NV and CO both seem too hard for Mitt to take back. He polls terribly with Hispanics and has a let-them-eat-cake attitude toward distressed homeowners (bad for NV). And Colorado just has too many of those upscale, educated white people who were Rockefeller Republicans in an earlier era and today vote for Obama. The Republicans' awful performance in CO in 2010 of all years suggests it's a swing state that will likely have turned blue by 2016.
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J. J.
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« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2012, 08:49:57 pm »
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Awaiting Obama's speech tonight, this might change, but as of now I do not see any more states losing their battleground status.

It is interesting, though, to hear that Romney has pulled out of PA and MI.

Romney didn't; one superpac did.
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J. J.

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Likely Voter
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« Reply #12 on: September 06, 2012, 08:57:23 pm »
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Awaiting Obama's speech tonight, this might change, but as of now I do not see any more states losing their battleground status.

It is interesting, though, to hear that Romney has pulled out of PA and MI.

Romney didn't; one superpac did.

Well Romney did in so much as his campaign decided not to spend any money in either MI or PA, so essentially Romney and the party "pulled out" in the late spring when the general election spending really started.   3 major GOP  superPacs have tried in both states, but as of now all have pulled out.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2012, 09:02:09 pm »
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Nevada
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #14 on: September 06, 2012, 09:03:35 pm »
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If Obama is not leading in NC polls after the convention, there is no way that he is winning the state come November. 
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RJ
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« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2012, 09:05:50 pm »
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I still think Wisconsin is fools gold for the Republican Party. It also appears as though Obama is going to make out from his convention more so than Romney did his.

That being said it mostly depends on who's winning. Obviously North Carolina will be the first if the election turns sour for Obama and Nevada and Colorado will be among the first to go if Romney starts tanking. If Florida keeps leaning Obama, Romney is toast. He's got to secure it by October to have a chance in this thing.
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SJoyce
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« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2012, 09:06:55 pm »
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NH, NV, WI.
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« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2012, 09:17:52 pm »
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NV will be off from Romney, I think that's it.
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« Reply #18 on: September 06, 2012, 09:20:40 pm »
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NV and CO both seem too hard for Mitt to take back. He polls terribly with Hispanics and has a let-them-eat-cake attitude toward distressed homeowners (bad for NV). And Colorado just has too many of those upscale, educated white people who were Rockefeller Republicans in an earlier era and today vote for Obama. The Republicans' awful performance in CO in 2010 of all years suggests it's a swing state that will likely have turned blue by 2016.
1.  That's not true, CO is mostly an Independent state with a streak of Republican voters. GOP registered voters are higher than DEM in 2012.

2. 2010 for the GOP in CO was a fluke, they ran joke candidates and the opponents ran a strictly on social issues.  So I disagree with you.
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« Reply #19 on: September 06, 2012, 09:26:13 pm »
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Nevada will come off for Romney and probably North Carolina for Obama.
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« Reply #20 on: September 06, 2012, 10:10:31 pm »
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Iowa. Only six electoral votes, no Senate seat up for grabs, and no egos (as in "Paul Ryan" or "Scott Walker") at risk. Nevada has as many electoral votes, but it has a Senate seat up for grabs. Wisconsin and Iowa vote largely in tandem -- and when they voted differently for President in 2004 they were both decided by less than 13,000 votes. But it has a Senate seat at risk. 

To be sure Iowa puts seven electoral votes at risk, if you include one of the electoral votes in Nebraska because it is in the same TV market as most of western Iowa. (If you don't know how Nebraska allots its electoral votes you need a little lesson).





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cinyc
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« Reply #21 on: September 06, 2012, 10:35:51 pm »
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Iowa. Only six electoral votes, no Senate seat up for grabs, and no egos (as in "Paul Ryan" or "Scott Walker") at risk. Nevada has as many electoral votes, but it has a Senate seat up for grabs. Wisconsin and Iowa vote largely in tandem -- and when they voted differently for President in 2004 they were both decided by less than 13,000 votes. But it has a Senate seat at risk. 

To be sure Iowa puts seven electoral votes at risk, if you include one of the electoral votes in Nebraska because it is in the same TV market as most of western Iowa. (If you don't know how Nebraska allots its electoral votes you need a little lesson).

So far, Obama has been more likely to make ad buys in the peripheral out-of-state markets than Romney.  For example, as of a week ago, Obama was up in the Burlington-Plattsburgh and Portland, ME markets, which serve parts of northern New Hampshire, while Romney was only up in Boston to reach southern New Hampshire, where most of the people live.  Similarly, the Romney campaign hasn't been up in Omaha in recent weeks, while Obama has (though some Romney PACs have been up in Omaha). 

It will be interesting to see if this changes in the upcoming weeks.  Romney is supposedly starting a huge ad blitz tomorrow.

I don't think the campaigns will pull out of Iowa first.  New Hampshire would likely come before that, since it's expensive to advertise in the Boston TV market.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: September 06, 2012, 10:37:53 pm »
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You may be right about New Hampshire.  Four electoral votes aren't going to make the difference.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #23 on: September 06, 2012, 10:40:54 pm »
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I think NH is the next state to drop off the list, at least for the campaigns and parties. Some SuperPacs might stick it out as they have money to burn.

I think NV and NC could drop off before the end.

WI will be interesting to watch. It wasn't a battleground until Ryan was picked. So far only the GOP side has spent money there. There hasn't been a lot of polling. It could be that it might snap back to Obama lean but the Romney campaign  are going to push hard as they see IA and WI as their backup plan if they lose OH...and they are (rightfully) worried about losing Ohio.
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Lief
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« Reply #24 on: September 06, 2012, 10:41:57 pm »
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New Hampshire is also super out of the way compared to all the other swing states, which mostly cluster together. Though it is near fund-raising Meccas like NYC and Boston.
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