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Question: Which state next to come off battleground list?
NC   -12 (19.7%)
FL   -0 (0%)
IA   -2 (3.3%)
VA   -0 (0%)
CO   -0 (0%)
OH   -0 (0%)
WI   -4 (6.6%)
NH   -8 (13.1%)
NV   -27 (44.3%)
None/all will remain battlegrounds   -8 (13.1%)
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Total Voters: 61

Author Topic: Which state next to come off battleground list?  (Read 1484 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #25 on: September 06, 2012, 11:55:35 pm »
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Awaiting Obama's speech tonight, this might change, but as of now I do not see any more states losing their battleground status.

It is interesting, though, to hear that Romney has pulled out of PA and MI.

Romney didn't; one superpac did.

Well Romney did in so much as his campaign decided not to spend any money in either MI or PA, so essentially Romney and the party "pulled out" in the late spring when the general election spending really started.   3 major GOP  superPacs have tried in both states, but as of now all have pulled out.

His campaign could take over in either state.  MI is still a possibility, and closing.
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« Reply #26 on: September 07, 2012, 12:10:53 am »
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Yes in theory they could but as of now no one is spending money in MI and PA and it isn't part of Romney big new push. The Superpacs are also spending money in the same states as romney and the party so it isn't really like Romney and the GOP PACs  have been trading off on who spends money where. Basically the SuperPacs have been so flush with money they have spent money in four states where neither Romney nor the party were trying: NM, MN, PA and MI. And now their experiment in trying to expand the map is over.
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« Reply #27 on: September 07, 2012, 12:15:13 am »
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Nevada should not be on this list. Too many CA tansplants in Vegas for Romney to win. Union and OFA GOTV will swamp Romney, Obama wins Nevada by at least 5%.

NH will be next one to go, then maybe Wisconsin, although Romney have a lot of money to burn so it will probably stay right until the end.
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« Reply #28 on: September 07, 2012, 12:40:55 am »
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NV.

Followed by NH and WI.
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« Reply #29 on: September 07, 2012, 04:32:11 am »
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None will come off the list. All those states are battlegrounds.
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« Reply #30 on: September 07, 2012, 04:41:14 am »
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Awaiting Obama's speech tonight, this might change, but as of now I do not see any more states losing their battleground status.

It is interesting, though, to hear that Romney has pulled out of PA and MI.

Romney didn't; one superpac did.

Well Romney did in so much as his campaign decided not to spend any money in either MI or PA, so essentially Romney and the party "pulled out" in the late spring when the general election spending really started.   3 major GOP  superPacs have tried in both states, but as of now all have pulled out.

His campaign could take over in either state.  MI is still a possibility, and closing.

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« Reply #31 on: September 07, 2012, 05:05:08 am »
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My guess is North Carolina.  My view is that Romney will slowly build momentum nationwide, and North Carolina will probably be among the first "swing" states break his way. 
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« Reply #32 on: September 07, 2012, 05:46:14 am »
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Even if his chances in NC are slim, Obama isn't going to "pull out" of the state because he has a massive ground game there and it would be more trouble to shut it down than to pull out.

The calculus is different for the Republicans because Romney has a big ground game in fewer states and can more easily cut off ad spending.

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« Reply #33 on: September 07, 2012, 05:47:34 am »
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J.J., what do you know about Michigan that the Romney campaign and the SuperPACs don't? It's all well and good to say that Michigan will close for Romney but no one seems to agree.
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« Reply #34 on: September 07, 2012, 06:00:15 am »
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Nevada will come off for Romney and probably North Carolina for Obama.

If I had to guess, I'd say the opposite.  Then again, I'm basing my guesses on previous elections and the CU economic analysis.
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« Reply #35 on: September 07, 2012, 07:05:51 am »
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Nevada
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« Reply #36 on: September 07, 2012, 07:29:10 am »
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1. New Hampshire
2. Nevada
3. North Carolina

I wouldn't say they will be completely off the battleground list, just that they will be greatly reduced in priority as we get closer to the election.  I feel pretty sure about the first two - I think people greatly misunderstand New Hampshire.  Nevada I just think is more reliably Democrat even than the polls indicate, but as for North Carolina I think it is mostly a function of money - the state is a very bright future goal for Dems, but Obama may be playing defensive money-wise and not be able to focus there much.
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« Reply #37 on: September 07, 2012, 11:25:32 am »
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If 2008 & 2010 polls/results were any indication, NV is not really a battleground. I find it difficult to imagine Romney pulling it off there.
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« Reply #38 on: September 07, 2012, 03:26:21 pm »
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Well this is how I see the current state of the race:



So I think the next state to come off the battleground map is NC, once Obama locks it up.
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« Reply #39 on: September 07, 2012, 03:28:44 pm »
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Well this is how I see the current state of the race:



So I think the next state to come off the battleground map is NC, once Obama locks it up.
Montana, Arizona, Georgia and Indiana are not tossup. Colorado, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire are tossup.
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« Reply #40 on: September 07, 2012, 03:31:53 pm »
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Well this is how I see the current state of the race:



So I think the next state to come off the battleground map is NC, once Obama locks it up.
Colorado, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire are not tossup. Montana, Arizona, Georgia and Indiana are tossup.

Fixed. The DNC was successful beyond anyone's wildest dreams and Bubba's speach is probably going to swing these tossups to Obama. I can see Tennessee, Texas, and the Dakota's getting competitive in the next few weeks.
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« Reply #41 on: September 07, 2012, 03:33:18 pm »
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Well this is how I see the current state of the race:



So I think the next state to come off the battleground map is NC, once Obama locks it up.

What are you on?
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« Reply #42 on: September 07, 2012, 03:33:55 pm »
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Well this is how I see the current state of the race:



So I think the next state to come off the battleground map is NC, once Obama locks it up.
Colorado, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire are not tossup. Montana, Arizona, Georgia and Indiana are tossup.

Fixed. The DNC was successful beyond anyone's wildest dreams and Bubba's speach is probably going to swing these tossups to Obama. I can see Tennessee, Texas, and the Dakota's getting competitive in the next few weeks.
Take off your hack goggles, wtf are you talking about.
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mondale84
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« Reply #43 on: September 07, 2012, 03:37:10 pm »
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Well this is how I see the current state of the race:



So I think the next state to come off the battleground map is NC, once Obama locks it up.
Colorado, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire are not tossup. Montana, Arizona, Georgia and Indiana are tossup.

Fixed. The DNC was successful beyond anyone's wildest dreams and Bubba's speach is probably going to swing these tossups to Obama. I can see Tennessee, Texas, and the Dakota's getting competitive in the next few weeks.
Take off your hack goggles, wtf are you talking about.

I'm talking about the current state of the race. Obama's prospects have never been better. He's at 52% on Gallup and only 43% disapprove. The base is fired up and the independents are flocking to the equal opportunity ticket in droves. Obama will probably end up winning bigger than in 2008 because the American people have faith and no one likes Romney.
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« Reply #44 on: September 07, 2012, 03:38:53 pm »
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Well this is how I see the current state of the race:



So I think the next state to come off the battleground map is NC, once Obama locks it up.
Colorado, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire are not tossup. Montana, Arizona, Georgia and Indiana are tossup.

Fixed. The DNC was successful beyond anyone's wildest dreams and Bubba's speach is probably going to swing these tossups to Obama. I can see Tennessee, Texas, and the Dakota's getting competitive in the next few weeks.
Take off your hack goggles, wtf are you talking about.

I'm talking about the current state of the race. Obama's prospects have never been better. He's at 52% on Gallup and only 43% disapprove. The base is fired up and the independents are flocking to the equal opportunity ticket in droves. Obama will probably end up winning bigger than in 2008 because the American people have faith and no one likes Romney.
23+ million unemployed people are going to vote for Obama a 2nd term?  Give me a break, that's the most hackish thing I've seen on this thread. Obama is good at throwing red meat to his crowd of appeal that you know so well.
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mondale84
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« Reply #45 on: September 07, 2012, 03:41:21 pm »
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Well this is how I see the current state of the race:



So I think the next state to come off the battleground map is NC, once Obama locks it up.
Colorado, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire are not tossup. Montana, Arizona, Georgia and Indiana are tossup.

Fixed. The DNC was successful beyond anyone's wildest dreams and Bubba's speach is probably going to swing these tossups to Obama. I can see Tennessee, Texas, and the Dakota's getting competitive in the next few weeks.
Take off your hack goggles, wtf are you talking about.

I'm talking about the current state of the race. Obama's prospects have never been better. He's at 52% on Gallup and only 43% disapprove. The base is fired up and the independents are flocking to the equal opportunity ticket in droves. Obama will probably end up winning bigger than in 2008 because the American people have faith and no one likes Romney.
23+ million unemployed people are going to vote for Obama a 2nd term?  Give me a break, that's the most hackish thing I've seen on this thread.

The unemployed of America are hopeful for a better tomorrow because of our President's bold vision. Furthermore, the unemployed are grateful to a President who has fought for their benefits and their jobs against an opponent who would have fired them long ago and shipped every one of their jobs overseas in order to pocket his profit.
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« Reply #46 on: September 07, 2012, 03:45:12 pm »
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Well this is how I see the current state of the race:



So I think the next state to come off the battleground map is NC, once Obama locks it up.
Colorado, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire are not tossup. Montana, Arizona, Georgia and Indiana are tossup.

Fixed. The DNC was successful beyond anyone's wildest dreams and Bubba's speach is probably going to swing these tossups to Obama. I can see Tennessee, Texas, and the Dakota's getting competitive in the next few weeks.
Take off your hack goggles, wtf are you talking about.

I'm talking about the current state of the race. Obama's prospects have never been better. He's at 52% on Gallup and only 43% disapprove. The base is fired up and the independents are flocking to the equal opportunity ticket in droves. Obama will probably end up winning bigger than in 2008 because the American people have faith and no one likes Romney.
23+ million unemployed people are going to vote for Obama a 2nd term?  Give me a break, that's the most hackish thing I've seen on this thread.

The unemployed of America are hopeful for a better tomorrow because of our President's bold vision. Furthermore, the unemployed are grateful to a President who has fought for their benefits and their jobs against an opponent who would have fired them long ago and shipped every one of their jobs overseas in order to pocket his profit.
I don't know where to go with this.
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mondale84
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« Reply #47 on: September 07, 2012, 03:47:34 pm »
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Well this is how I see the current state of the race:



So I think the next state to come off the battleground map is NC, once Obama locks it up.
Colorado, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire are not tossup. Montana, Arizona, Georgia and Indiana are tossup.

Fixed. The DNC was successful beyond anyone's wildest dreams and Bubba's speach is probably going to swing these tossups to Obama. I can see Tennessee, Texas, and the Dakota's getting competitive in the next few weeks.
Take off your hack goggles, wtf are you talking about.

I'm talking about the current state of the race. Obama's prospects have never been better. He's at 52% on Gallup and only 43% disapprove. The base is fired up and the independents are flocking to the equal opportunity ticket in droves. Obama will probably end up winning bigger than in 2008 because the American people have faith and no one likes Romney.
23+ million unemployed people are going to vote for Obama a 2nd term?  Give me a break, that's the most hackish thing I've seen on this thread.

The unemployed of America are hopeful for a better tomorrow because of our President's bold vision. Furthermore, the unemployed are grateful to a President who has fought for their benefits and their jobs against an opponent who would have fired them long ago and shipped every one of their jobs overseas in order to pocket his profit.
I don't know where to go with this.

You can start to support a new economy for the 21st century where opportunity and prosperity flows from the bottom up rather than trickles from the top down. Smiley
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« Reply #48 on: September 10, 2012, 08:17:00 pm »
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Too early to tell, but for the Dems I would say Wisconsin and for the GOP North Carolina but I doubt either side will concede either anytime soon.
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