Despite jobs report, economic confidence surges on heals of DNC

[King]

The U.S. Gallup Economic Confidence Index surged to -18 for the week ending Sept. 9, up 11 points from -29 the prior week. This puts the index near the high point for the year after 2 ½ months when, weighed down by continued high unemployment, the index had languished well below -20.

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Last week's 11-point jump is also the biggest one-week improvement in the Gallup Economic Confidence Index since its inception, although it roughly matches the 10-point gain that occurred the week after the killing of Osama bin Laden in May 2011.

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More specifically, the convention appears to have given Democrats and, to a lesser degree, independents, fresh optimism about the economy.



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There was no comparable shift in Americans' views of the economy, either overall or by party, during the prior week spanning the Republican National Convention.

[J. J.]

There was a slight uptick in the prior week on Rasmussen, but to large:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/right_direction_or_wrong_track

[J. J.]

Rasmussen's generic congressional ballot also showed an increase 44 D/42 R.  It is possibly a bounce due to the convention.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen's generic congressional ballot also showed an increase 44 D/42 R.  It is possibly a bounce due to the convention.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Because all House seats are up for grabs, such bodes ill for the continuity of an R majority in the House.

[Lief 🗽]

D+2 is right around the tipping point where the Dems could narrowly take the House, IMO.

[King]

I don't know.  Didn't Dems win the congressional ballot in 2004 and not make inroads in the House?  I'd say D+4 would flip the House.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't know.  Didn't Dems win the congressional ballot in 2004 and not make inroads in the House?  I'd say D+4 would flip the House.

No, Dems lost the House popular vote in 2004. 

[Craigo]

While the generic ballot question correlates reasonably well with seat distribution, it also tends to slightly overrates the Democratic edge by a point or two.

[Vosem]

And economic confidence surges all the way to -18!!!

[King]

And economic confidence surges all the way to -18!!!

That would be a witty post if this wasn't an index.