Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 10, 2016, 07:29:11 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | |-+  John Kerry - candidate with least broad coalition?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: John Kerry - candidate with least broad coalition?  (Read 1189 times)
freepcrusher
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2545
United States


View Profile
« on: September 11, 2012, 05:40:55 pm »
Ignore

Kerry won 583 counties in 2004 and in a tied election, would have won probably about 700. Even George McGovern, in a tied election, would have won about 845 counties. Discuss.

Edited to fix an obvious typo in the year.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2012, 06:49:36 pm by True Federalist »Logged

-1.38, -1.38
AverroŽs
AverroŽs Nix
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8085



View Profile
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2012, 10:24:16 am »
Ignore

People, not counties, comprise the electorate.
Logged

I actually take the National Enquirer rather seriously myself.
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1744


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2012, 06:14:21 pm »
Ignore

Republicans win more counties but Democrats win the more populous counties.

For instance, Democrats can win the entire state of Illinois just by running up their margins in Cook County. The Republicans can win every other county.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2012, 06:17:01 pm by cope1989 »Logged

Can't we all just get along?
mathstatman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 474
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2015, 01:08:02 pm »
Ignore

I thought Kerry's support base was pretty diverse. It's just that he was the only Dem since 1988 to lose the PV. Does "if the election were tied" presuppose uniform swing?
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3447
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.35

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2015, 09:26:53 pm »
Ignore

For instance, Democrats can win the entire state of Illinois just by running up their margins in Cook County.

[citation needed]
Logged

ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12198
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2015, 09:32:55 pm »
Ignore

For instance, Democrats can win the entire state of Illinois just by running up their margins in Cook County.

[citation needed]


Its unlikely since Cook County is usually only 64-65% Democrat if a Republican wins, but theoretically if a Democrat got 70% in Cook and lost every other county they would still win.
Logged

My primary/caucus ratings

South Carolina (R): Likely Trump
South Carolina (D): Safe Clinton

Nevada (R): Lean Trump
Nevada (D): Lean Clinton

Chance of winning

South Carolina (R): 70% Trump, 20% Cruz, 10% Field
South Carolina (D): 99% Clinton, 1% Sanders

Nevada (R): 60% Trump, 20% Cruz, 5% Rubio, 5% Kasich, 10% Field
Nevada (D): 70% Clinton, 30% Sanders
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines