Will we know who'll be elected President by the day before the election?

[Eraserhead]

A presidential election hasn't been a forgone conclusion by the day before it since '96. Okay, '08 was perhaps close to one but Obama's race definitely cast at least some doubt over the poll results leading up to it. Nobody could be totally sure if the US was going to elect its first black president.

'00 and '04 were clearly too close to call based on the polling.

What about this one? Will one candidate be clearly ahead? Will it be a dead heat or close enough to one that we won't be totally sure of the final outcome? Will there be a hidden anti-Mormon or anti-black vote that the polls won't pick up on?

I have my own opinions but what do you think?

[後援会]

Define "know". Because if there's anything that can make the 2012 board even more inane, it's a petty debate about epistemology.

[Platypus]

Basically, unless there'a a major scandal, Obama will walk it in. If there's a major scandal, he'll be unequivocally massacred.

People like Obama and are prepared to vote for him, even if he is a black muslim, but if he is seen as an immoral, un-messianic black muslim, he's absolutely toast.

If there's no particular reason for people to stop liking him (other than those who would never have liked him in the first place), few people are genuinely enthused enough about Romney to get him anywhere close to 270. At this stage, it's very much Obama's election to lose, but he won't lose it by one or two states if he does, it'd be a landslide.

[Wisconsin+17]

Where's the option for 'we already know who'll be elected president?'

[Sasquatch]

A month from now it will be certain.

[Eraserhead]

Define "know". Because if there's anything that can make the 2012 board even more inane, it's a petty debate about epistemology.

"Know" as in everyone knew Bill Clinton was going to beat Bob Dole. That kind of "know".

[morgieb]

I think so.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama will have a comfortable lead in the polls, similar to 2008, but not large enough that some last minute turnout quirk or Republican corruption couldn't swing things the other way.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I think everyone will feel very sure Obama will win, even if there's little reason to.

I also think Romney is underpolling right now because people don't like him. When nothing is at stake in a Gallup poll, it's easy to say "I'd vote for Obama because I don't like Romney." But when it comes down to the actual vote, I think people will be more favourable to Romney. Especially if the October jobs report is bad.

[Likely Voter]

In 2004 Bush had a 1.5 RCP avg lead on election day, but there was still some chance in the states that Kerry could win so we didn't "know", although it didn't look good for Kerry. I can't remember, but in 2008 was there anyone here who was still claiming McCain could win?  On election day Obama's RCP lead was 7.5?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Obama's win was very obvious. I honestly think McCain did very admirably. To me, it was pretty clear that the Democratic primaries were the real race for the White House. That McCain even came close in August and September was huge.

[mondale84]

We already know who'll be elected President.

[Joe Biden 2020]

We'll have a good idea, and it will probably be Obama, but no one can predict what will happen exactly when voters actually get to the polls.  Weather could be an issue in areas, traffic and long lines could be issues.  There are a lot of factors that people are not factoring in right now and can't factor in until it actually happens in 7 1/2 weeks.

That said, Romney is not dead, yet and those who say he is are getting the cart before the horse.

[Lief 🗽]

I think a better question is: will it be clear by 10 EST which candidate has won? This particular question is always difficult because there can we wide polling irregularities, unexpected turnout, etc. But I'm pretty sure that once the hard numbers start coming in, it'll be obvious who has won the election.

I remember in 2008, one of the first states to close was Indiana, and in every county Obama was dramatically improving on Kerry's percentages, and it was clear that there had been no Bradley Effect and he was going to win.

[Hatman 🍁]

In 2004 Bush had a 1.5 RCP avg lead on election day, but there was still some chance in the states that Kerry could win so we didn't "know", although it didn't look good for Kerry. I can't remember, but in 2008 was there anyone here who was still claiming McCain could win?  On election day Obama's RCP lead was 7.5?

opebo.

Nothing is certain because of all of these new voter ID laws.

[Eraserhead]

In 2004 Bush had a 1.5 RCP avg lead on election day, but there was still some chance in the states that Kerry could win so we didn't "know", although it didn't look good for Kerry. I can't remember, but in 2008 was there anyone here who was still claiming McCain could win?  On election day Obama's RCP lead was 7.5?

IDK, I actually recall Kerry being generally considered the slight favorite going into election day. Most people thought that the few undecided voters that were left would break sharply towards him (which most definitely didn't end up happening).

And yes, there were at least a few people on here who were claiming McCain still had a shot in 2008 the day before the election. I want to say JJ was probably among them but I'm not 100% sure about that. I know he hung on to that Bradley Effect "argument" for a very long time.