MA-06: MassINC: Tierney (D) beating Tisei (R)

[Miles]

PDF.

With leaners:

Tierney- 46%
Tisei- 34%

Without leaners:

Tierney- 39%
Tisei- 32%

Obama leads 47-37 in the district, though Brown/Warren numbers would have probably been more helpful.

[bore]

What's MassINC's track record?

[mondale84]

Obama is going to help Tierney, move along folks.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama is going to help Tierney, move along folks.

Definately.  When was the last time a competent incumbent lost in a district that his party's Presidential nominee was carrying by double digits? 

[krazen1211]

Obama is going to help Tierney, move along folks.

Definately.  When was the last time a competent incumbent lost in a district that his party's Presidential nominee was carrying by double digits? 

Phil Crane.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama is going to help Tierney, move along folks.

Definately.  When was the last time a competent incumbent lost in a district that his party's Presidential nominee was carrying by double digits? 

Phil Crane.

Id hardly call Crane "competent".  He was clearly becoming senile and out of touch with his district. 

[Vosem]

Obama is going to help Tierney, move along folks.

Romney is going to have a home-state effect in Massachusetts -- he won't win it himself, but he will do much better than other Republicans. On top of that you have the fact that nobody likes Tierney, and Tisei is gay, which could help him portray himself as a moderate. MassInc tilts Democratic, I think. I would still give a narrow edge to Tierney but this is very winnable for the GOP. (Not counting NH, the best Republican opportunities in New England are probably Roraback, Doherty, and then Tisei).

[Mister Twister]

As expected, the offshore betting "scandal" amounted to nothing and Tierney will win by a fairly comfortable margin.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Obama is going to help Tierney, move along folks.

Definately.  When was the last time a competent incumbent lost in a district that his party's Presidential nominee was carrying by double digits?

You act as if there's no scandal-related rationale for dumping Tierney at all. This is the type of race that will break late anyway -- it's all about whether Tisei can make the case with the huge warchest he's amassed.

Long story short, this is a district that Romney is going to do "OK" in, and a district that Scott Brown is going to carry. Tierney is still quite vulnerable, especially given how few people have made up their mind and how weak (39%) his hard support is.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama is going to help Tierney, move along folks.

Definately.  When was the last time a competent incumbent lost in a district that his party's Presidential nominee was carrying by double digits?

You act as if there's no scandal-related rationale for dumping Tierney at all. This is the type of race that will break late anyway -- it's all about whether Tisei can make the case with the huge warchest he's amassed.

Long story short, this is a district that Romney is going to do "OK" in, and a district that Scott Brown is going to carry. Tierney is still quite vulnerable, especially given how few people have made up their mind and how weak (39%) his hard support is.

Tierney didnt even personally do anything wrong, while people like Michael Grimm and Vern Buchanan did in districts less Republican than this is Democratic and nobody is saying that they are likely to lose. 

[mondale84]

Obama is going to help Tierney, move along folks.

Romney is going to have a home-state effect in Massachusetts -- he won't win it himself, but he will do much better than other Republicans. On top of that you have the fact that nobody likes Tierney, and Tisei is gay, which could help him portray himself as a moderate. MassInc tilts Democratic, I think. I would still give a narrow edge to Tierney but this is very winnable for the GOP. (Not counting NH, the best Republican opportunities in New England are probably Roraback, Doherty, and then Tisei).

LOL...that's the best one I've heard all day haha ! Romney may get 38-39% if he were tied nationally. Since he isn't he'll probably get 37% and Obama will just scrape by 60. The vast majority of Bay Staters don't look fondly on Romney's tenure as governor.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Obama is going to help Tierney, move along folks.

Definately.  When was the last time a competent incumbent lost in a district that his party's Presidential nominee was carrying by double digits? 

Garner Shriver (KS-4) 1976?
Sherman Lloyd (UT-2) 1972?
Maybe Lyle Williams (OH-19) in 1984 - I'm not sure how well Reagan did there.

[RogueBeaver]

It was always far-fetched for Elephants to nab a Mass House seat in a prez year.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama is going to help Tierney, move along folks.

Definately.  When was the last time a competent incumbent lost in a district that his party's Presidential nominee was carrying by double digits? 

Garner Shriver (KS-4) 1976?
Sherman Lloyd (UT-2) 1972?
Maybe Lyle Williams (OH-19) in 1984 - I'm not sure how well Reagan did there.

Williams actually ran ahead of Reagan, who lost that district by about eight points. 

In the cases of Lloyd and Shriver, politics was far less polarized back in those days.  Much more ticket splitting.