How is Romney's campaign different from McCains?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2024, 08:04:42 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  How is Romney's campaign different from McCains?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: How is Romney's campaign different from McCains?  (Read 1567 times)
Mister Twister
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 511


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 13, 2012, 07:45:44 PM »

Seriously, he's being forced to defend Bush states and has to pretty much run the gauntet and win every current swing state of FL, OH, NC, VA, CO etc. Seems like the same map as 2008, except IN is in Romney's column, IA is more competitive BUT he has completely given up on PA. Once again, the GOP is on the defensive. This is so similar to 2008 it's not even funny.
Logged
NHI
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,140


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2012, 07:50:54 PM »

As a Republican it's frustrating b/c this election at one point was easily winnable, but the momentum has largely been squandered. If Romney wins this (which he still might), then I expect it to be extremely narrow in both the electoral and popular vote.

In fact on both sides the chances of an electoral blowout are unlikely given the political climate.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2012, 07:53:12 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2012, 07:55:17 PM by RockyIce »

If Romney doesn't win in 2012, then the GOP can kick itself in the rear and TRY AGAIN for 2016.  The GOP in 2016 has a 75% chance of winning, and there is a wider selection of better candidates compared to the donkeys.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2012, 07:57:49 PM »

If Romney loses, I assume (hope) the party will look back and realize the "all in on the white vote" strategy was flawed and hopefully analysts are right and it will truly never be tried again.
Logged
Mister Twister
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 511


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2012, 10:08:36 PM »

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Sep13.html

At least McCain was (barely) ahead at this point in 2008.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,945


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2012, 10:11:08 PM »

Yeah, McCain's campaign was much more successful. At least he led Obama at points. Romney has never led Obama, either in the aggregate of the national polls or in the electoral college based on the aggregate of state polls.
Logged
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,826
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2012, 10:22:04 PM »

Yeah, McCain's campaign was much more successful. At least he led Obama at points. Romney has never led Obama, either in the aggregate of the national polls or in the electoral college based on the aggregate of state polls.

Romney led Obama for a brief period in October 2011. Obama has had a lead for about 11 months now. Even Kerry led Bush for a time.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,752


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2012, 01:36:32 AM »

Ryan isn't the disaster that Palin was, and he doesn't have the 2008 economic meltdown destroying his chances, but Romney manages to have a trainwreck of a campaign anwyays.
Logged
Indy Texas
independentTX
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,269
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2012, 02:23:22 AM »

People actually liked John McCain.

Even people who were never going to vote for the guy could respect him. Republicans liked that he was a war hero. Democrats liked that he clashed with Bush on multiple occasions.

Even most Republicans don't like or respect Mitt Romney. They'll vote for him because of how much they hate Obama.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,634
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2012, 04:39:11 AM »

Yeah, if it was an open race Obama would win a 400+ landslide. As it is though the economy will keep it close-ish until November.

The problem is likeability. People liked McCain, no-one likes Romney. However, because Romney didn't choose a fruitloop as a Veep, he's probably running a slightly better campaign.
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,805
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2012, 05:46:47 AM »

If McCain was running in 2012, he could win. Romney can't. So, McCain>>>>>Romney
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,009


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2012, 06:10:45 AM »

More money.
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2012, 06:21:39 AM »

Am I the only person who thinks that a Gingrich/Huntsman ticket would have been potent? Thankfully we got a Gordon Gekko and a teenage boy as the GOP ticket.
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,067
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2012, 06:46:39 AM »

Am I the only person who thinks that a Gingrich/Huntsman ticket would have been potent? Thankfully we got a Gordon Gekko and a teenage boy as the GOP ticket.

I think a Gordon Gekko ad would be lethal for Romney.

I think that Gingrich would have been a better general election candidate, because I think he would have dominated in the debates.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,839
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2012, 06:48:42 AM »

Am I the only person who thinks that a Gingrich/Huntsman ticket would have been potent? Thankfully we got a Gordon Gekko and a teenage boy as the GOP ticket.

Gingrich would have contradicted himself into a trap that President Obama could have exploited in due time. A VP candidate could have done nothing to stop that from happening. 
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,634
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2012, 07:10:25 AM »

Am I the only person who thinks that a Gingrich/Huntsman ticket would have been potent? Thankfully we got a Gordon Gekko and a teenage boy as the GOP ticket.
Probably. Gingrich's much too flawed to win a GE.
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2012, 03:09:17 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Man, ROMbots will never concede that McCain's numbers went up when he chose Palin. Smiley
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,945


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2012, 03:17:30 PM »

And then back down when it turned out she was an idiot.
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2012, 03:22:09 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Right, like the DOW crash had nothing to do with it. Nope, all because of Palin.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 14, 2012, 03:33:43 PM »

Here is one key way Romney's campaign is different than McCain's. He is fighting on a much smaller (and much more favorable to Obama) map



via http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Spending_by_state.html

Logged
Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,480


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 14, 2012, 04:48:53 PM »

If Romney loses, I assume (hope) the party will look back and realize the "all in on the white vote" strategy was flawed and hopefully analysts are right and it will truly never be tried again.

Sadly, I think you're off by about 180 degrees. My assumption is that if Romney loses, a good chunk of the Republicans will decide they need to run a 'real' conservative, instead of 'fakes' like Romney and McCain. That, in turn, will likely lead to either a primary fight so bitter and brutal it makes the 2012 one look like a tea party (please forgive the pun), or to the nomination of a truly unelectable candidate, and possibly both.
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 14, 2012, 04:54:42 PM »

McCain spent 1.6 million on Michigan and Minnesota and just 300k on North Carolina and Indiana?
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 14, 2012, 06:10:57 PM »

Bear in mind mcCain was leading nationally in early September with a very big lead in NC. The above figures are from late September.  His campaign was slow to react to his collapse after Lehman. They were still spending on offense and expanding the map when they should have moved to defense
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 15, 2012, 12:55:10 AM »

Am I the only person who thinks that a Gingrich/Huntsman ticket would have been potent? Thankfully we got a Gordon Gekko and a teenage boy as the GOP ticket.

Do you know how deeply hated Newt Gingrich is?
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 15, 2012, 06:47:30 AM »

Ryan isn't the disaster that Palin was, and he doesn't have the 2008 economic meltdown destroying his chances, but Romney manages to have a trainwreck of a campaign anwyays.
Exactly.
He is less likeable as a person but has a lot more money.

And Obama has lost the "young charismatic black guy" tag,but also the "one term unexperienced senator" one.

For the rest,you can say that pretty much 2012=2008 polling wise...WI might be closer,but honestly,any Republican should have been expecting something way better by now.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.237 seconds with 13 queries.