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| | | |-+  MT: Public Policy Polling: Romney up five, three with Johnson
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Author Topic: MT: Public Policy Polling: Romney up five, three with Johnson  (Read 1193 times)
Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #25 on: September 12, 2012, 08:05:31 pm »
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There's nothing wrong with pointing out that a poll has a sample that's off. But "for ppp, 2012=2008" is just wrong. PPP, as has been explained numerous times on the forum, does NOT weight for party ID and is not making any conscious estimate of what the party ID will be. The same applies to most other pollsters. This was also what was so frustrating about that Bawlexus dude; it was all "PPP thinks this" and "Quinnipiac thinks that" when this was just a mistake.
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FallenMorgan
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« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2012, 12:14:57 am »
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So is this proof that Johnson hurts Romney more than Obama?
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thrillr1111
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« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2012, 09:06:22 am »
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could you imagine if Obama went to Montana to campaign. I don't see it happening though. That would be a big headache for Romney. Being down just up just 5 points in Montana. An appearance from Obama will make it even closer.
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Umengus
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« Reply #28 on: September 14, 2012, 12:49:18 pm »
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Polling Gary Johnson in Montana but not New Mexico is quite funny.

The NM poll was paid for by a private client, and said client didn't want Gary Johnson included in the poll.

Hey, that's exactly what I was going to post.

By the way, Umengus, how can you be such a troll? You only post about the partisan ID of the polls you don't like. And even if they are accurate, you ignore the facts and continue claiming that the poll is biased. Please, next time think about it before posting:

Highly competitive senate election -----> Higher dem turnout in a GOP state / Higher GOP turnout in dem states.

sorry guy but the party id is the base of the "polling science". That explains the differences of the results for different polls polling the same state at the same time.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #29 on: September 14, 2012, 05:38:49 pm »
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This poll confirms Montana's status as a tossup state.

R+5 during Obama's convention bounce simply confirms a state that will vote Romney in the upper single digits if he's losing and by double-digits if he's winning.

This isn't a convention bounce, its permanent. This poll was taken over the last two days and shows that the Romney campaign is tanking nationally. Obama is heading toward a double digit win nationally and that's why Montana remains a tossup.

Er, no, it's a convention bounce, a fairly weak one at that considering history, and one which considering some other recently released polling (O+11 in Washington, R+9 in Arizona) indicates is very likely already receding.

Short some sort of rally-round-the-flag cataclysm a la 9/11, Montana is safe for Romney.

Stop trolling. You know as well as I that the PPP polls recently have all been Republican-leaning recently because the company is trying to prove it's "neutral" which ironically convinces me that they've turned into Republican hacks.

How about we all agree that whenever Mondale84 calls someone a troll (which again, is every few seconds these days), we just send him a link to this: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=157757.0 AND this: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=159141.0 He's like a damn broken record.
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
mondale84
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« Reply #30 on: September 14, 2012, 05:45:10 pm »
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This poll confirms Montana's status as a tossup state.

R+5 during Obama's convention bounce simply confirms a state that will vote Romney in the upper single digits if he's losing and by double-digits if he's winning.

This isn't a convention bounce, its permanent. This poll was taken over the last two days and shows that the Romney campaign is tanking nationally. Obama is heading toward a double digit win nationally and that's why Montana remains a tossup.

Er, no, it's a convention bounce, a fairly weak one at that considering history, and one which considering some other recently released polling (O+11 in Washington, R+9 in Arizona) indicates is very likely already receding.

Short some sort of rally-round-the-flag cataclysm a la 9/11, Montana is safe for Romney.

Stop trolling. You know as well as I that the PPP polls recently have all been Republican-leaning recently because the company is trying to prove it's "neutral" which ironically convinces me that they've turned into Republican hacks.

How about we all agree that whenever Mondale84 calls someone a troll (which again, is every few seconds these days), we just send him a link to this: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=157757.0 AND this: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=159141.0 He's like a damn broken record.

Listen MorninginAmerica, unlike you and the teflon-President you idolize, I don't really care whether a few right-wingers on an internet forum think I'm trolling. I'm here to gather information, judge it, and present analysis within and without the forum. If you don't appreciate it, that's fine, you can put me on ignore, but I actually have opinions that I can defend and back up with facts, not spin.

If you have a problem with what I say, ignore it. If you don't, it's your own damn fault.
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polijunkie3057
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« Reply #31 on: September 14, 2012, 05:54:04 pm »
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No one is trying to shut off your opinions. What I think  we're all confused by is your incessant use of the word "troll," especially when you seem to be the consenus troll of the forum. I notice how you don't address that hyposcrisy at all. Care to now?

I have NO problem with discussion and disagreement, but is it possible for you to make it more than 2 posts without dropping the "troll" bomb?
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"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
mondale84
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« Reply #32 on: September 14, 2012, 05:58:34 pm »
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No one is trying to shut off your opinions. What I think  we're all confused by is your incessant use of the word "troll," especially when you seem to be the consenus troll of the forum. I notice how you don't address that hyposcrisy at all. Care to now?

I have NO problem with discussion and disagreement, but is it possible for you to make it more than 2 posts without dropping the "troll" bomb?

It is hard to not use that word when describing right-wingers who completely ignore data, facts, and the public consensus to merely aggravate the rest of the people on this forum.

The 2012 board has long run amok with right wingers who troll - see above definition. I have been recently more vocal in my objections to the hackishness of said posters so that they can understand that the vast majority of forumites don't appreciate what they have turned this discussion section into.
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #33 on: September 14, 2012, 06:42:32 pm »
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No one is trying to shut off your opinions. What I think  we're all confused by is your incessant use of the word "troll," especially when you seem to be the consenus troll of the forum. I notice how you don't address that hyposcrisy at all. Care to now?

I have NO problem with discussion and disagreement, but is it possible for you to make it more than 2 posts without dropping the "troll" bomb?

It is hard to not use that word when describing right-wingers who completely ignore data, facts, and the public consensus to merely aggravate the rest of the people on this forum.

The 2012 board has long run amok with right wingers who troll - see above definition. I have been recently more vocal in my objections to the hackishness of said posters so that they can understand that the vast majority of forumites don't appreciate what they have turned this discussion section into.

Even I, a hackish liberal with -6.5 E/S score, am tired of you, Mondale84. I'm surprised you are a moderate (-3 in the PoliticalMatrix). So, please, calm down, read the poll, believe what you want to and let the rest of the people share, politely, their opinions.

BTW, I think Montana will go for Romney by 6 to 8 points, so, IMO, this poll is more accurate than Rasmussen, which had Romney leading by 17.
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E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
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MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
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« Reply #34 on: September 14, 2012, 07:08:25 pm »
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No one is trying to shut off your opinions. What I think  we're all confused by is your incessant use of the word "troll," especially when you seem to be the consenus troll of the forum. I notice how you don't address that hyposcrisy at all. Care to now?

I have NO problem with discussion and disagreement, but is it possible for you to make it more than 2 posts without dropping the "troll" bomb?

It is hard to not use that word when describing right-wingers who completely ignore data, facts, and the public consensus to merely aggravate the rest of the people on this forum.

The 2012 board has long run amok with right wingers who troll - see above definition. I have been recently more vocal in my objections to the hackishness of said posters so that they can understand that the vast majority of forumites don't appreciate what they have turned this discussion section into.

I, a liberal with -6.5 E/S score, am tired of you, Mondale84. I'm surprised you are a moderate (-3 in the PoliticalMatrix). So, please, calm down, read the poll, believe what you want to and let the rest of the people share, politely, their opinions.

BTW, I think Montana will go for Romney by 6 to 8 points, so, IMO, this poll is more accurate than Rasmussen, which had Romney leading by 17.

Very well said Julio. Very.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2012, 07:11:05 pm by MorningInAmerica »Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
danny
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« Reply #35 on: September 14, 2012, 08:40:59 pm »
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It is hard to not use that word when describing right-wingers who completely ignore data, facts, and the public consensus to merely aggravate the rest of the people on this forum.

The 2012 board has long run amok with right wingers who troll - see above definition. I have been recently more vocal in my objections to the hackishness of said posters so that they can understand that the vast majority of forumites don't appreciate what they have turned this discussion section into.

Funny that to use this definition, as that's exactly what you seem to be doing on this forum. And no, I'm not a Romney supporter.
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Meeker
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« Reply #36 on: September 14, 2012, 10:07:42 pm »
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Obama should run "negative" ads highlighting Johnson's support for smaller government and lower taxes.*

*Not a serious proposal.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2012, 10:27:33 pm by Meeker »Logged
Umengus
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« Reply #37 on: September 15, 2012, 04:19:11 am »
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No one is trying to shut off your opinions. What I think  we're all confused by is your incessant use of the word "troll," especially when you seem to be the consenus troll of the forum. I notice how you don't address that hyposcrisy at all. Care to now?

I have NO problem with discussion and disagreement, but is it possible for you to make it more than 2 posts without dropping the "troll" bomb?

It is hard to not use that word when describing right-wingers who completely ignore data, facts, and the public consensus to merely aggravate the rest of the people on this forum.

The 2012 board has long run amok with right wingers who troll - see above definition. I have been recently more vocal in my objections to the hackishness of said posters so that they can understand that the vast majority of forumites don't appreciate what they have turned this discussion section into.

Even I, a hackish liberal with -6.5 E/S score, am tired of you, Mondale84. I'm surprised you are a moderate (-3 in the PoliticalMatrix). So, please, calm down, read the poll, believe what you want to and let the rest of the people share, politely, their opinions.

BTW, I think Montana will go for Romney by 6 to 8 points, so, IMO, this poll is more accurate than Rasmussen, which had Romney leading by 17.

the ras poll was an outlier.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
coyolxauhqui
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« Reply #38 on: September 15, 2012, 05:02:06 am »
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This poll confirms Montana's status as a tossup state.

R+5 during Obama's convention bounce simply confirms a state that will vote Romney in the upper single digits if he's losing and by double-digits if he's winning.

This isn't a convention bounce, its permanent. This poll was taken over the last two days and shows that the Romney campaign is tanking nationally. Obama is heading toward a double digit win nationally and that's why Montana remains a tossup.

Er, no, it's a convention bounce, a fairly weak one at that considering history, and one which considering some other recently released polling (O+11 in Washington, R+9 in Arizona) indicates is very likely already receding.

Short some sort of rally-round-the-flag cataclysm a la 9/11, Montana is safe for Romney.

Stop trolling. You know as well as I that the PPP polls recently have all been Republican-leaning recently because the company is trying to prove it's "neutral" which ironically convinces me that they've turned into Republican hacks.

How about we all agree that whenever Mondale84 calls someone a troll (which again, is every few seconds these days), we just send him a link to this: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=157757.0 AND this: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=159141.0 He's like a damn broken record.

Listen MorninginAmerica, unlike you and the teflon-President you idolize, I don't really care whether a few right-wingers on an internet forum think I'm trolling.

Antonio, AFJ, morgieb, me, Hashemite, Kalwejt, Scott...
All right-wingers.

I see.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #39 on: September 16, 2012, 09:07:42 pm »
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Moving Montana into "Likely Obama" category.
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"By not voting, you would let someone win who wants to destroy the regions, raise taxes, remove guns from the street, nationalize transit, expand abortion coverage, a gut the military." - Hagrid
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