AZ-09: GBA Strategies (D): Sinema up 4

[Miles]

Article.

Sinema (D)- 45%
Parker (R)- 41%

I find her margin pretty underwhelming considerng that A) this was an internal, B) Parker isn't a particuarly strong Republican and C) didn't Kerrey actually win this district?

[krazen1211]

Kerry won this by a point or so if memory serves. Brewer also lost it slightly in the 2010 elections.

[minionofmidas]

This is a Bush 2000 - Kerry 2004 district, or so I read somewhere. Wouldn't swear to it being true. It is of course a mostly ancestrally Republican area, and Sinema ain't Harry Mitchell. Could go either way.

[Miles]

I forgot to mention that this poll has Obama up 50-44.

[Talleyrand]

Pure tossup. Pretty bad that Sinema is just an even shot at winning while Dems in more GOP districts (Kirkpatrick and Barber) are favored.

[後援会]

Sinema is a very weak candidate. The GOP candidate isn't great either, but Simena used to speak at f'ing Code Pink rallies.

[DrScholl]

The district is pretty Democratic on most levels, Cook has it rated Lean Democratic at this point. I think anything that voted for Obama despite McCain's home state advantage is pretty much out of reach for a Republican.

[mondale84]

Sinema is a very weak candidate. The GOP candidate isn't great either, but Simena used to speak at f'ing Code Pink rallies.

What's wrong with that?

She is a person who doesn't agree that the military industrial complex should have free reign to grease the wheels of their profit-making machine with the blood of young men and women. I don't see anything wrong with that.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Sinema is a very weak candidate. The GOP candidate isn't great either, but Simena used to speak at f'ing Code Pink rallies.

So what? Opposing the Iraq War is somehow a negative?

[minionofmidas]

Pure tossup. Pretty bad that Sinema is just an even shot at winning while Dems in more GOP districts (Kirkpatrick and Barber) are favored.

Those are not more GOP districts. Indeed, the districts look precisely as they do because the Mathis Commission, in its defense of its Dem-favorable map, made all three districts as close to even as possible according to the several different metrics used... and as all these prominently included presidential results, this district is marginally more Republican than the other two in downballot races (and/or in registration, which also featured.)

[Lief 🗽]

DCCC internal shows Sinema up five: http://www.scribd.com/doc/106317202/AZ-09-Anzalone-Liszt-for-DCCC-Sept-2012

[Nhoj]

Sinema is a very weak candidate. The GOP candidate isn't great either, but Simena used to speak at f'ing Code Pink rallies.

So what? Opposing the Iraq War is somehow a negative?

She also supported Nader in 2000.