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SirNick
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« on: September 14, 2012, 03:11:15 pm »
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Election Night 2020: A Mini-Timeline

Background:

2012:


The reelection of President Barack Obama was last straw for the Republican Party whose subscribers were beginning to realize that they needed to update their own social policies or be part of history and not the present. President Obama led Governor Romney after the Democratic convention by a few points, but managed to widen his lead after a strong performance in the debates, foreign policy mishaps by the Romney campaign, and somewhat decent economic reports at the end of October and November.


President Barack H. Obama/Vice President Joseph R. Biden – 372 Electoral Votes, 53.2% Popular Vote
Governor Willard “Mitt” Romney/Congressman Paul Ryan – 166 Electoral Votes,  45.7% Popular Vote
Governor Gary Johnson/James Gray – 0 Electoral Votes, .93% Popular Vote
Other- .2% Popular Vote


2013 to 2016:

2013 to 2016 saw the beginnings of a modest economic recovery, the ending of the war in Afghanistan,  Israeli and American bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities, and a modestly successful Democratic (kinda) governments in Egypt, Libya and Syria.

On the other hand, structural unemployment still left many out of work with the unemployment rate fluctuating between 6.5% and 7% throughout all of 2016. The national debt, although lower, was still unsustainably high and Democrats lose control of the Senate in the 2014midterm elections, however; it turned out that President Obama worked better with an all Republican Congress than the split Congress between 2011 and 2013 passing the first budget of the Obama Administration in 2015.

Issues of the day by the time Election Day rolled around were job retraining, inflation and the national debt. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would become the Democratic nominee having been virtually unopposed in the primary, and Rick Santorum would narrowly win the nomination in a last hurrah for conservative Republicans against moderate Republican Chris Christie.


Former Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton/Governor Brian Schweitzer- 442 Electoral Votes – 58% Popular Vote

Former Senator Rick Santorum/Governor Sam Brownback – 96 Electoral Votes  38% Popular Vote
Other – 4% Popular Vote

2017 to 2018
President Hillary Clinton would pass the third budget since 2009 with the help of the narrowly controlled Republican Congress. Conservative Republicans who had been increasingly pushed to the side after their devastating loss in 2016 would continue to try to stop progress, but moderate, and not as conservative Republicans, found ways to work with the Clinton Administration and Democrats .

The Clinton Administration would tackle debt reduction, Medicare and Medicaid, and inflation as the economy expanded. In the end Congress would pass the Brown-Kaine Fiscal Responsibility Act, named after Senators Scott Brown and Tim Kaine, which put the United States on a firm path to reducing its debt. Unfortunately Medicare and Medicaid reform would not be as successful with a much more limited version of the President’s proposal being passed –and few outside groups were pleased by the Clinton  Medicare/Medicaid reforms.

President Clinton would also tackle the Israel-Palestinian conflict and come closer than anyone before her in trying to gain a peace. For the first time, it seemed like peace was on the horizon –but no one was crossing their fingers.

Democrats would lose a minimum amount of seats in the November 2018 elections and after a pledge from President Clinton to serve only one term the nation’s eyes turned to 2020.
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Clinton1996
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2012, 03:25:34 pm »
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This looks good. I wonder if we can keep the WH for 16 years straight.
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SirNick
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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2012, 04:17:14 pm »
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2019
January 2019 –

Former Governor Chris Christie announces that he will seek the Republican nomination. Former Presidential Republican Presidential nominee Rick Santorum says he will not try a third time for the presidency.

Vice President Brian Schweitzer announces that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

Senator Scott Brown announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for President.

Senator Tim Kaine announces that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

A spokesperson for Andrew Cuomo, when asked if the Governor will seek the Presidency, says that “it’s on the table.”

Maryland Governor Anthony Brown says he will seek the Democratic nomination.

February 2019 –

Senator Rand Paul announces that he will seek the Republican nomination.
Former Governor Jon Huntsman announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for the second time.

Jeb Bush announces that he will not seek the Republican nomination for President.

Former Vice President Sarah Palin announces that she will not seek the Republican nomination.
Illinois Congressman Gary Sinise announces that he will seek the Republican nomination.

Governor Paul Ryan announces that he will seek the Republican nomination following Scott Walker’s announcement that he will not.

Rumor is that Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is ready for a run but is waiting to see if Governor Andrew Cuomo is going to jump in.

California Governor Antonio Villaraigosa announces that he will seek the presidency catching headlines for calling Tim Kaine and Brian Schweitzer “old dogs who can’t learn new tricks” during his announcement speech.

Senator Amy Klobuchar  announces that she will seek the Democratic nomination

Governor Corey Booker announces his intention to seek the presidency.

March 2019

As expected, former Governor Bobby Jindal and Senator Marco Rubio both announce that they will seek the presidency.

Nikki Haley also announces her intention to run in March 2019.

Republican Governor Kristi Noem announces that she will seek the presidency.



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« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2012, 08:32:21 pm »
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Looks interesting. Some observations/ questions.

I take it Scott Brown gets reelected in 2018 and that Cuomo won a third term.

Has Bobby Jindal done anything since leaving the governorship in 2015?

Has Huntsman done anything since leaving the Ambassadorship of China in April 2011?

How long has Gary Sinese been in Congress?

I'd assume Cory Booker was elected Governor in 2017. In that case, February 2019 would be an early announcement. Though it may be a way to get the campaign ready early.
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SirNick
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2012, 02:10:13 pm »
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Looks interesting. Some observations/ questions.

I take it Scott Brown gets reelected in 2018 and that Cuomo won a third term.

Has Bobby Jindal done anything since leaving the governorship in 2015?

Has Huntsman done anything since leaving the Ambassadorship of China in April 2011?

How long has Gary Sinese been in Congress?

I'd assume Cory Booker was elected Governor in 2017. In that case, February 2019 would be an early announcement. Though it may be a way to get the campaign ready early.

Booker elected in 2013, Christie only serves one term.

Jindal ran in 2016, performed strongly in Iowa, but didn't make it. He's like Mitt Romney in 2009, just kind of showing up at events...

Yes to Scott Brown.

Yes to Cuomo.

For Gary Sinese? Eh, since 2014 lets say.

Jon Huntsman - Public speaking, advocate of a moderate Republican party, served as Secretary of State in President Obama's second term.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2012, 02:30:47 pm by sirnick »Logged

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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2012, 02:36:12 pm »
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First National Polls:

Democrats:


Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York*: 20%
Vice President Brian Schweitzer of Montana: 18%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 15%
Governor Corey Booker of New Jersey: 10%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York*: 9%
Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia: 8%
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota :  3%
Governor Anthony Brown of Maryland: 2%

(*) = has not announced intent to run

Republicans:

Former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey: 20%
Governor Paul Ryan of Wisconsin: 15%
Former Secretary of State/Former Governor Jon Huntsman:  13%
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky: 12%
Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts: 11%
Former Governor Nikki Hayley of South Carolina: 8%
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida:  8%
Former Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana: 5%
Congressman Gary Sinisie of Illinois: 5%
Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota: 3%

March 2019

At a rally in Concord, New Hampshire- Governor Andrew Cuomo says “After speaking with my family and loved ones, it is my decision to seek the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. The road ahead of us will be hard, but with your help New Hampshire, we can write a new chapter in American history.”
Anderson Cooper: Will Kirsten Gillibrand challenge the sitting Governor of her own state to the Democratic nomination?
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2012, 03:19:45 pm »
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March 2019

At a rally in Concord, New Hampshire- Governor Andrew Cuomo says “After speaking with my family and loved ones, it is my decision to seek the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. The road ahead of us will be hard, but with your help New Hampshire, we can write a new chapter in American history.”

Anderson Cooper: Will Kirsten Gillibrand challenge the sitting Governor of her own state to the Democratic nomination?

March 2019 continued

Reporter: Mrs. President, do you think that Senator Gillibrand should jump into the race for the Democratic nomination for President?
President Clinton: I think Senator Gillibrand is a great Senator for New York, and Governor Cuomo is a great Governor. I’m not going to endorse anyone but what I know is that we’ll have a strong nominee coming out of the convention in September.
Reporter: So should she get in?
President Clinton: Only Senator Gillibrand can answer that, but it looks like the race is wide open.

Days later…

At a rally in upstate New York, Kirsten Gillibrand addresses the crowd “Today, I come here with the wind at our backs  to announce that I will seek the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. Many people told me not to, many people said I couldn’t do it with our great Governor in the race –but with your help, we can do this –we can do this together.”
2019 continued

Spring and summer of 2019 continued with intense campaigning by all the candidates. Both sides liked their own sides candidates, and both Republicans and Democrats felt they were well positioned to take or keep the White House in November.
On the Democratic side, the candidates campaigned on a continuation of former President Obama and President Clinton’s policies –saying that they proved to be the right course for the country. Each candidate differed in how they would extend these policies but they rarely attacked each other.

On the Republican side, the candidates did not give credit to President Obama or Clinton for the economic recovery experienced under their administration claiming that it would have been stronger if they had used Republican policies as opposed to Democratic ones. As on the other side, they rarely attacked each other but did differ on how they would have the nation move forward.

By the time the fall rolled around, the candidates were roughly the same in national polling since most people don’t pay attention until the primaries start, however; as always, the real battle was in the first few states –Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

September 2019

Iowa Democratic Nomination Polling:


Vice President Brian Schweitzer of Montana:  21%
Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York: 20%
Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia: 18 %
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota:  10%
Governor Antonio Villaraigosa:  8%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: 8%
Governor Corey Booker of New Jersey:  5%
Governor Anthony Brown of Maryland: ~1%%
Undecided: 9%

Iowa Republican Democratic Nomination Polling:

Governor Paul Ryan of Wisconsin: 18%
Former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey:  17%
Former Secretary of State/Former Governor Jon Huntsman:  15%
Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota: 13%
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky: 9%
Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts: 7%
Former Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana: 7%
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida:  4%
Congressman Gary Sinisie of Illinois: 3%
Former Governor Nikki Hayley of South Carolina: 1%
Undecided: 6%



New Hampshire Democratic Nomination Polling:

Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York:  25%
Governor Antonio Villaraigosa:  15%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York:  15%
Governor Corey Booker of New Jersey:  10%
Vice President Brian Schweitzer of Montana:  8%
Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia: 7%
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota:  3%
Governor Anthony Brown of Maryland:  ~1%
Undecided:  16%

New Hampshire Republican Nomination Polling

Former Secretary of State/Former Governor Jon Huntsman:  20%
Former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey:  20%
Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts:  18%
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky:  11%
Governor Paul Ryan of Wisconsin: 8%
Former Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana:  7%
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida:  6%
Congressman Gary Sinisie of Illinois:  5%
Former Governor Nikki Hayley of South Carolina:  4%
Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota:  ~1%
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2012, 04:15:26 pm »
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Fall 2019

As the debates came and went in the fall of 2019, it was clear who was a first tier contender for their own party’s nomination, and who wasn’t. 

On the Democratic side Vice President Brian Schweitzer and Governor Andrew Cuomo began to take shots at each other as Iowa and New Hampshire came closer as they both led in national polling. Virginia Senator Tim Kaine and Governor Antonio Villaraigosa both stood their ground while poor debate performances and lackluster fundraising pushed Maryland Governor Anthony Brown out of the race. Corey Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand’s debate performances unfortunately did not shine as brightly as their national reputations.

On the Republican side, boisterous Governor Chris Christie and Governor Paul Ryan quarreled, with Governor Christie saying that Ryan was “too conservative” for America and saying that nominating Ryan would result in the same outcome as 2016, 2012 and 2008. Jon Huntsman stood out as a true statesman amongst the quarreling while Rand Paul took his late father’s cause as his own –along with their supporters. Gary Sinisie for all the excitement was lackluster and ultimately he’d get frustrated and quit the race. Kristi Noem, Nikki Hayley, Scott Brown, Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal would be present for the debates, but no one would remember what they had to say.

Winter 2019

By December 2019, the race was sprinting full speed ahead. The research wing of Senator Brown’s campaign in December began to run advertisements about a deal that Christie made as Governor of New Jersey with some associates that ended up in jail. Christie in reality did nothing wrong, but the association would cost him dearly in the eyes of voters. The other candidates would jump on this –and Governor Ryan would go as far as to say “We condemn bullies at school, why aren’t we condemning bullies in politics?”

Democrats were happy to see Chris Christie taken down a notch because he was beating them all in head to head polls.  Antonio Villaraigosa started to stand out in the debates and polls more as Iowa and New Hampshire loomed around the corner –and the crowd on both sides was about to get thinner.

Nationally, the country was doing well for its time. Everyone had their own solution to the still high unemployment rate (between 6.5 and 7%) but there were no imminent threats to the country –yet—besides partisan bickering about things that were really nonissues in the long run…for the time being anyway.

January 2020

Iowa Results:

Republicans:

Governor Paul Ryan: 25%
Governor Jon Huntsman: 23%
Senator Scott Brown: 15%
Governor Kristi Noem: 11%
Senator Rand Paul: 10%
Governor Chris Christie: 8%
Governor Bobby Jindal: 4%
Senator Marco Rubio: 3%
Governor Nikki Hayley: ~1%

Pundits: This might be the first nail in the coffin for Governor Christie. A big win for Paul Ryan who was the Vice Presidential nominee in 2012 –but we’ll see if he performs better than Mitt Romney did. This is a big loss for Kristi Noem who is virtually unknown elsewhere in the country, we could see her leaving tonight.

Democrats:

Senator Tim Kaine: 23%
Governor Andrew Cuomo: 22%
Vice President Brian Schweitzer: 21%
Governor Antonio Villaraigosa:  12%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: 10%
Senator Amy Klobuchar: 7%
Governor Corey Booker: 5%

Pundits: Corey Booker was not expected to do well here, so this isn’t a surprise…this was Amy Klobuchar’s one chance to stand out and with a 7% showing it doesn’t seem like she did…
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« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2012, 04:29:18 pm »
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Iowa Aftermath:

“Today, I am ending my campaign for the Presidency and endorsing Governor Paul Ryan.” – Governor Kristi Noem

“It is with a heavy heart than I end my campaign for the presidency today. Our nation would be better off with another strong, independent women like President Clinton in the White House. It is why I today endorse Senator Kirsten Gillibrand…” – Senator Amy Klobuchar

“We’re not done yet. We’re still fighting.” – Governor Corey Booker

“Look, I’m not Rick Santorum. I understand what it takes to win the Presidency. Mitt Romney was a moderate and he couldn’t do it, Rick Santorum was insane and he couldn’t do it –but I can do it.” – Paul Ryan privately to donors.

New Hampshire Results:

Democratic Results:

Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York:  32%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York:  15%
Vice President Brian Schweitzer of Montana:  13.2%
Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia: 14.2%
Governor Corey Booker of New Jersey:  12.9%
Governor Antonio Villaraigosa:  12.7%

Pundits: New Hampshire –wow. Cuomo runs away with it, no surprise there, but what the real story is third place.  The difference between third place and sixth was .5 –yes that’s half of a point apart from each other. These are strong contenders…disappointing for Vice President Schweitzer that he can’t seem to pull away from the pack…disappointing for Tim Kaine who won Iowa and came in fourth here…but we’ll see what South Carolina brings where none of these candidates are exactly favored.”

Republican Results

Former Secretary of State/Former Governor Jon Huntsman:  26%
Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts:  22%
Governor Paul Ryan of Wisconsin: 16%
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky:  14%
Former Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana:  7%
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida:  6%
Former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey:  5%
Former Governor Nikki Hayley of South Carolina:  4%

Pundits: We’re starting to see who the real contenders are here. Jon Huntsman cames back from a 3rd place finish in 2008 to make it first place in New Hampshire now. Scott Brown gives a strong showing as expected making profit off of Chris Christie’s decline. Governor Ryan does better than expected after his Iowa victory.  Nikki Hayley in hanging in there for South Carolina –don’t know if she’ll have momentum after he expected victory there.
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« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2012, 04:39:30 pm »
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New Hampshire Aftermath:

“We just don’t see a way forward.” – Governor Bobby Jindal withdrawing from the race pledging his support to Governor Ryan.

“We’re taking this to South Carolina!” – Nikki Hayley on staying in the race.

“We’re very worried.” – an off the record comment from a Schweitzer staffer to a reporter.
“If the President won’t endorse us, then we might as well get out of the race.” – another off the record comment from a Schweitzer staffer.

“You don’t have the money to go further for much longer Governor.” – an aide to Governor Corey Booker

South Carolina:

Results:

Democratic:


Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia:  26%
Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York:   22%
Governor Antonio Villaraigosa:  17.9%
Vice President Brian Schweitzer of Montana:  12%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York:  11.2%
Governor Corey Booker of New Jersey:  10.9%

Pundits: Booker and Gillibrand are done but this is a strong third place finish for Governor Villaraigosa who has beaten the Vice President.

Republican:

Former Governor Nikki Hayley of South Carolina:  42%

Governor Paul Ryan of Wisconsin: 23%

Governor Jon Huntsman:   13%

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky:   9%

Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts:  8%

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida:  3%

Former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey:  2%

Pundits:  Great showing for Nikki Hayley, no one else really contested the race here –but Chris Christie has gotta be done after this one.

South Carolina Aftermath:

“Today, I am ending my campaign for President of the United States…” – Governor Corey Booker as he endorsed Governor Andrew Cuomo

“We were bullied out of this race.” – Governor Chris Christie on suspending his campaign and refusing to endorse anyone

“Today, I endorse Governor Cuomo…” – Kirsten Gillibrand leaving the race.

“We just don’t see a way forward.” – Vice President Schweitzer on leaving the race.

“Winning Florida won’t give us the nomination.” – Marco Rubio on withdrawing from the race and endorsing Governor Ryan
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2012, 04:51:27 pm »
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National Polling Post South Carolina:

Democratic:[/b]

Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York:   33% (New Hampshire)
Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia:  22% (Iowa, South Carolina)
Governor Antonio Villaraigosa:  20%

Undecided: 25%

 Republican:

Governor Paul Ryan of Wisconsin: 27% (Iowa)
Governor Jon Huntsman:   23% (New Hampshire)
Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts:  12%
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky:   11%
Governor Nikki Hayley of South Carolina:  6% (South Carolina)
Undecided: 21%

Nevada Results

Democratic:

Governor Antonio Villaraigosa: 42%
Governor Andrew Cuomo: 36%
Senator Tim Kaine:  22%

Republican:

Governor Jon Huntsman: 33%
Senator Rand Paul: 25%
Governor Paul Ryan: 22%
Senator Scott Brown: 11%
Governor Nikki Hayley: 9%

Pundits: Governor Villaraigosa takes home his first victory. With the national spotlight on him for this second –will the media begin to look into his messy divorce from years ago –or will they oversee that and focus on the issues?  This state would have gone to Cuomo otherwise so Kaine is probably happy with this…

On the Republican side, a second win for Jon Huntsman and the first person to win two states…strong showing by Rand Paul won’t save him…bleak showing for Hayley who got a small boost from South Carolina but she’s probably done…


Nevada aftermath:

“Today, I endorse Governor Jon Huntsman.” – Senator Brown leaving the race after winning no states.

“We need more women, but unfortunately I didn’t do better.” – Nikki Hayley endorsing Governor Ryan

“Cuomo needs California to win this. He can’t win with you in the race. We can get something out of this”- a senior advisor to GovernorVillaraigosa
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« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2012, 04:58:06 pm »
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“Huntsman wins big in Florida –says Paul Ryan bad for senior citizens” – New York Times after Huntsman pulling off a victory in Florida

Florida Results:

Democratic:

Governor Andrew Cuomo: 41%
Senator Tim Kaine: 38%
Governor Antonio Villaraigosa: 21%

Republican:

Governor Jon Huntsman: 54%
Governor Paul Ryan: 35%
Senator Rand Paul: 11%

Florida Aftermath:

“My father would stay in this longer, but I know a loss when I see one. I’m getting out Governor Ryan’s way.” – Senator Rand Paul on exiting the race.
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2012, 03:49:40 pm »
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I'll update again soon. This timeline is only going to election night so it will be quick then I'll go back to From the Darkness.

Republican Primary:



Jon Huntsman - 3 states, 107 delegates.
Paul Ryan - 1 state, 94 delegates.
Rand Paul - 0 states, 8 delegates
Scott Brown (Out) - 0 states, 17 delegates
Nikki Hayley (Out) - 0 states, 31 delegates

Democratic Primary:



Andrew Cuomo - 2 states, 120 delegates
Tim Kaine - 2 states, 104 delegates
Antonio Villaraigosa - 1 state, 57 delegates
Brian Schweitzer (Out) - 14 delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand (Out) - 12 delegates
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2012, 09:37:52 pm »
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Super Tuesday Results:

Anderson Cooper: This is the first time in a long time, that we have three candidates on each side participating in the primary on Super Tuesday. Could be anyone’s race.

Colorado:

D:  Cuomo: 38%, Kaine 32%, Villaraigosa: 30%,
R: Huntsman: 45%, Paul: 28%, Ryan: 27%

Minnesota:

D: Cuomo: 41%, Kaine: 38%, Villaraigosa: 21%
R:  Ryan: 38%, Huntsman: 36%, Paul: 26%

Arizona:

D:  Villaraigsoa: 37%, Kaine: 32%, Cuomo: 31%
R:  Huntsman: 43%, Ryan: 38%, Paul: 19%

Michigan:

D:  Cuomo: 48%, Kaine: 37%, Villaraigosa: 15%
R:  Huntsman: 41%, Ryan: 40%, Paul: 19%

Wyoming:

D: Villaraigosa: 35%, Kaine: 34%, Cuomo: 31%
R:  Huntsman:  56%, Ryan:  34%, Paul: 10%

Maine:

D: Cuomo: 58%, Kaine: 32%, Villaraigosa: 10%
R:  Huntsman: 38%, Paul: 35%, Ryan: 27%

Washington:

D:  Cuomo:43%,  Villaraigosa: 38%,  Kaine: 19%
R: Huntsman: 48%, Ryan: 35%, Paul:  17%

Alaska:

D:  Kaine:  45%, Cuomo: 40%, Villaraigosa: 15%
R: Ryan: 50%, Huntsman: 40%, Paul: 10%

Georgia:

D: Kaine: 50%, Cuomo: 43%, Villaraigosa: 7%
R:  Ryan: 48%, Huntsman: 30%, Paul: 22%

Idaho:

D:  Kaine: 40%, Cuomo: 34%, Villaraigosa: 26%,
R: Huntsman: 43%, Ryan: 36%, Paul: 21%

Massachusetts:

D:  Cuomo: 55%, Kaine: 40%, Villaraigosa: 5%
R: Huntsman: 53%, Ryan: 28%, Paul: 19%

North Dakota:

D: Kaine: 41%, Cuomo: 35%, Villaraigosa: 24%
R:  Ryan: 37%, Huntsman: 33%, Paul: 30%

Ohio:

D: Kaine: 43%, Cuomo: 39%, Villaraigosa: 18%
R: Ryan: 41% Huntsman: 39%,   Paul: 20%

Oklahoma:

D:  Kaine: 53%, Cuomo: 29%, Villaraigosa: 21%
R:  Ryan: 50%, Huntsman: 37%, Paul: 13%

Tennessee:

D:  Kaine: 55%, Cuomo: 25%, Villaraigosa: 20%
R: Ryan: 57%, Huntsman: 33%,  Paul: 10%

Vermont:

D: Cuomo: 62%, Kaine: 30%, Villaraigosa: 8%
R: Paul: 42%, Huntsman: 37%, Ryan: 21%

Virginia:

D: Kaine: 63%, Cuomo: 27%, Villarigosa: 10%
R:  Ryan:  41%, Huntsman: 40%, Paul: 19%

After Super Tuesday:



Jon Huntsman: 365 Delegates, 12 states
Paul Ryan: 356 Delegates, 8 states
(Dark Green) Rand Paul: 120 Delegates, 1 state



Tim Kaine:  539 Delegates,10 states
Andrew Cuomo: 532 Delegates, 9 states
Antonio Villaraigosa: 205 Delegates, 3 states

Pundits:  On the Democratic side, Tim Kaine had a great night stopping Governor Cuomo dead in his tracks. Governor  Villaraigosa seems to be the spoiler so far, but there are enough delegates up in the air for him to pull this off although it is very unlikely. The most contested state today was Ohio were Senator Tim Kaine pulled off an unexpected victory.

On the Republican side, Jon Huntsman has all the momentum but Governor Ryan did pull off wins in two very contested states Ohio and Virginia so this is far from over.
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2012, 10:07:02 pm »
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Double Super Tuesday:
Anderson Cooper: This year, we  have pretty much two super Tuesdays and this is the second one. Since two weeks ago, Senator Rand Paul has dropped out of the race and endorsed Paul Ryan. Governor Jon Huntsman is expected to do very well tonight, but will it be enough for him to clinch the nomination? On the Democratic side, we still have a three way race.
(Only winners are posted below)
Alabama: Kaine, Ryan
American Samoia: Cuomo, Huntsman
Arkansas: Kaine, Ryan
Delaware: Kaine, Huntsman
Illinois: Cuomo, Huntsman
Kansas: Kaine, Ryan
Louisiana: Kaine, Ryan
Missouri: Cuomo, Ryan
Nebraska:  Kaine, Ryan
New Jersey: Cuomo, Huntsman
New Mexico: Villaraigosa, Huntsman
Utah: Kaine, Huntsman
Virgin Islands: Cuomo, Huntsman
DC: Cuomo, Huntsman
Maryland: Kaine, Huntsman


Jon Huntsman: 643 Delegates, 18 states + DC, Virgin Islands, American Samoia
Paul Ryan: 782 Delegates, 13 states (includes 165 Rand Paul Delegates)
Rand Paul: 165 Delegates, (Endorsed Ryan, Out) Dark Green

Pundits: Huntsman has a clear lead in national polls and in the popular vote and without Rand Paul’s delegates he is also head in the delegate race –but if you include Rand Paul’s delegates for Ryan then Ryan is only ahead in the delegate count.






Tim Kaine:  847 Delegates, 12 states
Andrew Cuomo: 841 Delegates, 18 states + DC
Antonio Villaraigosa: 281 Delegates, 4 states

Pundits: It’s going to take more than pledged delegates for any of these three to win. Lets look at the race as it stands with super delegates (823).
Kaine: 847 pledged delegates + 42 Super Delegates = 889 Delegates, still 1,240 short of the nomination.
Cuomo: 841 pledged delegates + 112 Super Delegates = 953 Delegates, still 1,176 short of the nomination.
Villaraigosa: 281 pledged delegates + 53 Super Delegates = 334 Delegates, still 1,795 short of the nomination.

There are currently 1,465 delegates at stake in upcoming primaries and 616 super delegates up for grabs. The math for Governor Villaraigosa is scary. He would need over 86% of all the remaining delegates –even if he won a majority in every state from this point forward and a majority of super delegates he still would not be the nominee.

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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2012, 11:45:22 am »
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I'm getting lazy, lets fast forward a tad bit.


Hawaii: Villaraigosa, Huntsman
Wisconsin: Cuomo, Ryan
Rhode Island: Cuomo, Huntsman
Texas: Villaraigosa, Ryan
Connecticut: Cuomo, Huntsman
Mississippi: Kaine, Ryan
New York: Cuomo, Huntsman
Pennsylvania: Cuomo, Huntsman
Guam: Cuomo, Huntsman
Indiana: Cuomo, Huntsman
North Carolina: Cuomo, Huntsman
West Virginia: Kaine, Huntsman
California: Villaraigosa, Huntsman
Kentucky: Kaine, Ryan
Oregon: Cuomo, Huntsman
Puerto Rico: Villaraigosa, Huntsman
Montana: Kaine, Huntsman
South Dakota: Kaine, Huntsman

Full Republican Results:



Jon Huntsman: 1,545 Delegates, 30 states + DC, Virgin Islands, American Samoia
Paul Ryan: 1,185 Delegates, 18 states (includes 165 Rand Paul Delegates)
Rand Paul: 165 Delegates, (Endorsed Ryan, Out)

Pundits: Neither Governor Jon Huntsman or Governor Paul Ryan has secured the nomination, however; if you include Senator Paul’s 165 delegates on Paul Ryan’s count, he would be the nominee. It is not guaranteed that all of those delegates will vote for Paul Ryan, it is likely that many will still vote for Rand Paul. The number to secure the nomination is 1,152.This is a battle that will go to the convention. Governor Huntsman leads Governor Ryan in the popular vote for the primary contest 50 to 43 with national polls putting Huntsman close to 60%.

Full Democratic Results:



Tim Kaine:  1,276 Delegates, 23 states
Andrew Cuomo: 1,545 Delegates, 20 states +DC
Antonio Villaraigosa: 724 Delegates, 7 states

Pundits: It’s going to take more than pledged delegates for any of these three to win. Lets look at the race as it stands with super delegates (823).

Kaine: 1,276 pledged delegates + 120 Super Delegates =  1,392 Delegates, still 737 short of the nomination.

Cuomo: 1,545 pledged delegates + 360 Super Delegates = 1,905 Delegates, still 224 short of the nomination.

Villaraigosa: 724 pledged delegates + 117 Super Delegates = 841 Delegates, still 1,288 short of the nomination.

*226 super delegates still at stake.

Pundits: Governor Cuomo is the nearest to the nomination. If he takes all but two remaining super delegates he will clinch the nomination but that number remains very far away right now. Governor Kaine still has a shot, but only if he gets the endorsement of Governor Villarigosa or even more unlikely, Governor Cuomo.
National polls put Governor Cuomo ahead with the other two candidates tied.



“Governor Cuomo good to speak with you.”
“Thank you for taking my call Antonio. I wanted to talk to you about the…”
“…the nomination of course?”
“Yes, the nomination. I’ll get straight to the point. I know you know that you won’t be the nominee. So what is it that you want?”
“What do I want? I want to be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States….”
“We all do, but the numbers aren’t there for you. Even if Tim dropped out, his delegates would come running to me. You’ve maxed out. Your supporters would be supporting me if you weren’t in this. Tim’s supporters won’t run to the left of me, they’ll run to me.”
“I think you underestimate the power of persuasion Governor.”
“Antonio, look at the numbers. I have a lot to offer you if you step aside for the party.”
“Vice President?”
“I was thinking the first Hispanic Secretary of State….”
“I do not want to be Secretary of State. I want your endorsement.”
“You got to be kidding me, the person in first place endorsing the person in third –there’s no way.”
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SirNick
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« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2012, 12:17:45 pm »
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At the Republican convention, a floor battle would ensue with Governor Huntsman and Governor Ryan each coming close to securing the nomination but with many Rand Paul delegates voting for Senator Rand Paul even though he was not in the race. On the twenty third ballot, Governor Jon Huntsman would be the Republican nominee. He would announce immediately after securing the nomination that Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington would be his running mate.

Republican Ticket: Governor Jon Huntsman of Utah/Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington
Head to Head Polling Post Republican Convention:

Huntsman/Cantwell: 53%
Cuomo: 45%

Bickering between the Democratic candidates would ensue all the way up until the convention.

Democratic Convention Balloting:

First Ballot:
Cuomo: 2,005 (45.9%)
Kaine: 1,458 (33.4%)
Villaraigosa: 901 (20.6%)

After the first ballot, Governor Antonio Villaraigosa would drop his candidacy, and Tim Kaine would announce him as his pick for Vice President. Villaraigosa after a rousing convention speech would urge all his delegates to move to Governor Kaine to give him the nomination, however; Governor Cuomo had expected this.

Second Ballot:

Cuomo:2,725 (62.4%)
Kaine: 1,639 (37.6%)

Governor Kaine would go on to gain about 20% of Governor Villaraigosa’s delegates as Governor Cuomo was right –if Antonio was not in the race, they were all Cuomo supporters.

Governor Cuomo after his nomination would immediately announce Republican Senator Rob Portman of Ohio as his running mate.

Democratic Ticket: Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York/Senator Rob Portman of Ohio
Head to Head Polling Post Democratic Convention:

Cuomo/Portman: 51%
Huntsman/Cantwell: 46%




Huntsman/Cantwell: 132 Electoral Votes
Cuomo/Portman: 215 Electoral Votes

September 2020

The past 9 months had been filled with a tensions building in Eastern Europe as Russia sought to remove a “unfit” “dictator” from power in Ukraine –but the European Union even though it disagreed with their President’s policies had moved to block Russia from entering Ukraine Ukraine had been trying to gain access to the EU. The Clinton Administration called for Russia to stop massing troops near Ukraine. Republicans in Congress were split, some called for the US to intervene, some called for the US to call for new elections. Democrats were also split, but a majority of both houses wanted no military intervention and it seemed the Clinton Administration was in agreement.  Governor Jon Huntsman, in the first debate, shined with his foreign policy expertise agreeing with the Clinton Administration’s practical approach. Governor Cuomo called for new elections, which Governor Huntsman described as “naïve” because “whether we like the President or not, he was fairly elected. Russia is being the bully here, we can’t cave to their demands.”

Who do you trust more on foreign policy?
Jon Huntsman: 48%
Andrew Cuomo: 33%
Not Sure/Don’t Know: 19%

The second debate, would be the Vice Presidential debate between Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell and Republican Senator Rob Portman. Both would stress the need for bipartisan cooperation in Congress which they agreed has been “sorely lacking” in previous years. The audience was evenly split on who won the debate and would have no significant impact on the election.

Immigration was a hot topic in the third Presidential debate (second “Presidential debate” third debate in general) with Governor Cuomo taking a more conservative stance on immigration than Governor Huntsman. Both favored a path to citizenship to some extent, but Governor Cuomo was better articulated and what he said resonated better with viewers.

Who won the Presidential debate?

Andrew Cuomo: 50%
Jon Huntsman: 42%
Not Sure/Don’t know: 8%

The last Presidential debate focused squarely on the economy. In the end, the audience would think that Governor Cuomo won by a slim margin, but historians would say it was the most in depth policy oriented debate in Presidential history.

Last Poll Before Election Day:

Huntsman/Cantwell: 48%
Cuomo/Portman: 46%
Not Sure/Undecided:  6%
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Captain Chaos
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« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2012, 03:29:50 pm »
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Shouldn't Portman be Huntsman's running mate, and Cantwell be Cuomo's running mate?
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SirNick
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« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2012, 04:43:39 pm »
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Shouldn't Portman be Huntsman's running mate, and Cantwell be Cuomo's running mate?

No, I made it interesting.
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« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2012, 04:52:09 pm »
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I think a conservative republican and a liberal democrat would run as independents... Anyway, Huntsman/Cantwell (the democrats in the race) 2020!!
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E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2012, 05:37:56 pm »
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Yes!
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SirNick
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« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2012, 06:14:39 pm »
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Election Night:

Wolf Blitzer: Well, this is certainly going to be close today. Virtually every state is in play for both Governor Cuomo and Governor Huntsman. Even if they lose one state that is usually a solid for their own party, it does not mean its over for either candidate.

Anderson Cooper: 7:30pm and we can call a few states already….

Kentucky has voted for Governor Andrew Cuomo in a 51-49 margin for the Democrat.

Indiana is too close to call, we’ll have to come back to this one later.

South Carolina has voted for Governor Huntsman in a much smaller margin than expected…53-47.

Vermont’s electoral votes will go to Governor Cuomo.

Virginia is too close to call with Governor Huntsman with a slight lead early on.
Georgia also too close to call.

North Carolina we can predict will go to Governor Jon Huntsman, a switch from the previous three election cycles..51-49 margin.

Ohio will go to Governor Andrew Cuomo…52-48…

West Virginia will go to Governor Cuomo 51-49…



Jon Huntsman/Maria Cantwell: 24 Electoral Votes
Andrew Cuomo/Rob Portman: 34 Electoral Votes
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Governor Varavour
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« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2012, 06:19:07 pm »
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Ohio lost? We're done. Time for me to find a new job.
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« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2012, 10:16:51 pm »
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Listen.  This is a great idea.  But you have to admit it's a little bit extreme.  I'm not sure Obama or Romney will get over 300 EVs this year, much less the landslide you have him getting.  Also, while Hillary is very popular and Santorum's a total nut job, it's very unlikely for him to earn under 40-45% of the popular vote and less than 150 EVs after 8 years of Democratic administration, especially with unemployment still hovering around 6.5-7%.  I'm sorry if this insults you, but I'm just trying to give some constructive criticism.

Anyway, this is really interesting, so please continue Wink
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

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FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

---------------------------------------

Libertarian Internationalist Monarchist
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« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2012, 01:05:31 am »
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Ohio will go to Governor Andrew Cuomo…52-48…

West Virginia will go to Governor Cuomo 51-49…

lol
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