Counties with wildly erratic voting patterns

[soniquemd21921]

The neighboring counties of McIntosh, North Dakota and McPherson, South Dakota were among the most politically volatile counties in the country between 1920 and 1940. Check out these results:

1920 - 94% Harding (McIntosh), 72% Harding (McPherson)
1924 - 63% La Follette  (McIntosh), 68% La Follette (McPherson)
1928 - 55% Smith (McIntosh), 54% Smith (McPherson)
1932 - 87% Roosevelt (McIntosh), 81% Roosevelt (McPherson)
1936 - 52% Roosevelt (McIntosh), 55% Landon (McPherson)
1940 - 92% Willkie (McIntosh), 77% Willkie (McPherson)

Afterwards they both voted Republican by huge margins, and in 1964 they were among Goldwater's best counties outside of the South (67% in McIntosh, 72% in McPherson).

I don't know much about these two counties, aside from the fact that they both have large Russian-German populations. What caused these counties to go from erratic to rock-ribbed Republican?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I want to know what happened in Henderson County KY in 2004. It went for Gore in 2000 and Obama in 2008, but overpoweringly for the dictator Bush in 2004.

[memphis]

This may have had something to do with it.

[Brittain33]

I want to know what happened in Henderson County KY in 2004. It went for Gore in 2000 and Obama in 2008, but overpoweringly for the dictator Bush in 2004.

It looks like 56%-43% for Bush in 2004 while barely going D in 2000 or 2008. The 2004-2008 swing makes more sense if you think of it in terms of Indiana rather than Appalachia.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I want to know what happened in Henderson County KY in 2004. It went for Gore in 2000 and Obama in 2008, but overpoweringly for the dictator Bush in 2004.

It looks like 56%-43% for Bush in 2004 while barely going D in 2000 or 2008. The 2004-2008 swing makes more sense if you think of it in terms of Indiana rather than Appalachia.

But why the swing from 2000 to 2004? Even Dukakis won it in '88.

It wouldn't be so weird if Bush didn't win it in 2004 by such a ridiculously wide margin - after he started a war and destroyed the economy, no less.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I want to know what happened in Henderson County KY in 2004. It went for Gore in 2000 and Obama in 2008, but overpoweringly for the dictator Bush in 2004.

It looks like 56%-43% for Bush in 2004 while barely going D in 2000 or 2008. The 2004-2008 swing makes more sense if you think of it in terms of Indiana rather than Appalachia.

But why the swing from 2000 to 2004? Even Dukakis won it in '88.

It wouldn't be so weird if Bush didn't win it in 2004 by such a ridiculously wide margin - after he started a war and destroyed the economy, no less.

Quite simple, really: In 88, there was still enough of a Democratic labor machine to carry Dukakis to victory. Gore was a better candidate for that part of the country than Kerry, and it's right across the Ohio river from Evansville, Indiana, so it would have seen a lot of Obama's advertising directed at IN.

[Free Palestine]

What were their populations?

If it was small enough, they could have just had a meeting every four years where they'd take several chickens, one for each candidate, and then tear the chickens' heads off and vote for the candidate of the chicken that takes the longest to stop flopping around.

[bgwah]

I'm guessing the NPL might have had something to do with it.

[bgwah]

Stats:

McIntosh, ND
Ethnicity:
82% German

Religion
42.4% Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (48% in 1980)
18.0% North American Baptist Conference
16.5% Catholic Church

Immigration
1890: 68% foreign born. 63% born in Eastern Europe (92% of immigrants).

McPherson, SD
Ethnicity
75% German

Religion
33.4% Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (41% in 1980)
14.3% Catholic Church
10.5% United Methodist Church

Immigration
1890: 59% foreign-born, 49% born in Eastern Europe (83% of immigrants).

DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY
Overwhelming of German ancestry, but with immigrants from Eastern Europe, would suggest the area is composed primarily of Volga Germans. Quick Google searches confirm Volga Germans heavily settled this area. The Evangelical Lutheran Church is the largest religious body, and was declining from 1980-2010, meaning it's possible they dominated the counties even more so in 1930. Neighboring Campbell, SD displays similar patterns. Other neighboring counties, however, don't seem to have been as dominated by immigrants as much, and those that were appear to be more from Germany (and to a lesser extent, Canada and Norway).

----

How would this affect the voting patterns? I think you need to look at more years to get a better idea.

German-Americans supposedly voted for the more anti-war candidates in the early 20th century. Would Volga Germans care as much about war with Germany? Apparently not. McIntosh was Wilson's worst county in ND - Hughes defeated him 78-21. McPherson voted 80-18 Hughes, and was also Wilson's worst in the state. Counties settled by Germans from Germany did, however, seem to like Wilson.

But rewind to 1912, and you'll see that Teddy Roosevelt's best county by far in North Dakota is McIntosh, where he received 63%. He got 65% in McPherson, and 75% in Campbell (his 2nd best performance in the entire country).

So it was one of Teddy Roosevelt's best regions in 1912. It returned to being solidly Republican in 1916 as we've already seen, and in 1920 as you noted in your first post.

In 1924, however, we see it voting for another Republican-turned Progressive, with McIntosh voting 63% LaFollette and McPherson voting 68%.

So this area wasn't just generic Republican. It was dominated by progressive Republicans.

This is where the Nonpartisan League (NPL) comes in... I thought it might be strong here early on, but Lynn Frazier was demolished in the 1916 Republican primary in McIntosh. This piece provides some interesting information, though, saying Volga Germans didn't become a critical part of the NPL until the 1930s. It says that William Langer was a Volga German (by descent) and took over the NPL in the early 1930s.

I know there were competing factions within the NPL, which might explain the split vote in 1928. I think they were generally supportive of the New Deal, explaining FDR's performance in 1932. However, it looks like FDR refused to support the Frazier–Lemke Farm Bankruptcy Act, that would've restricted the ability of banks to repossess farms that couldn't pay their mortgages. Perhaps this is what upset the voters in these counties and caused them to return to the GOP so forcefully in 1936 and 1940.
 
Thanks to Google, I've confirmed the above: http://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/article_40fe3879-633b-5cb6-9b43-b14f012e4f4f.html

"The most important figure in persuading many citizens of the state to vote for Roosevelt was William Lemke, a Republican. Largely because of Lemke, all of the endorsed, statewide Republican candidates in North Dakota supported Roosevelt for president. Four years later, because of broken promises, Lemke challenged Roosevelt for the presidency."

As for 1940, Wilkie was German-American. That can't have hurt in returning those voters to the GOP. Wilkie was also an interventionist, which apparently the Volga Germans didn't have a problem with as we saw in 1916.

[bgwah]

^ I guess my post was tl:dr. Go figure a quality post with facts and numbers would kill a thread.

No wonder this forum consists of little more than garbage anymore. There's just no reason to bother with good posts. Except for the WA thread. I love the WA thread.

[Nhoj]

Interesting info and maybe somewhat relevant
McIntosh County
 Language other than English spoken at home, pct age 5+, 2006-2010    25.8%   
McPherson County
24.0%   
Incidentally I will be fairly close to this area next weekend staying at someones house who speaks German.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Another weird one: Martin KY. This county is always, always, always Republican - except in 1996 when Clinton won it pretty handily.

[Seattle]

Except for the WA thread. I love the WA thread.

Me too! By far the most interesting thread!

Apart maybe from the various map threads.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

^ I guess my post was tl:dr. Go figure a quality post with facts and numbers would kill a thread.

No wonder this forum consists of little more than garbage anymore. There's just no reason to bother with good posts. Except for the WA thread. I love the WA thread.

If it makes you feel any better, I read it yesterday morning. Mainly because I was looking to see if someone mentioned the impact of Wilkie's appeal to certain sects of German-American voters.

[minionofmidas]

Also, the Republicans rebounded very strongly all across the Plains once the worst of the crisis was over, as early as 1936. Has anybody ever made a 32-36 trend map? And, of course, the entire region (EC-wise) went from erratic to rock-ribbed Republican in the period the question's about.

[soniquemd21921]

How about counties that had been solidly Republican before the New Deal, then in 1936 went Democratic and stayed Democratic?

The neighboring counties of Trumbull and Mahoning (Youngstown area) voted consistently Republican before the 30's (Trumbull had not voted Democrat since the 1850s).  In 1932 Hoover carried both counties by solid margins, but then in 1936 they made a big flip and voted for FDR by 2-1 margins. Since then they've voted solidly Democratic, only going Republican in the GOP landslide years of 1956 and 1972.

But an even bigger R-to-D flip occurred in the coal county of McDowell, West Virginia. In 1932 it was the only county in southern West Virginia that went for Hoover (he got 57% there). Four years later it turned around and gave FDR 73 percent of the vote, and it's voted Democrat consistently ever since then.

[minionofmidas]

CIO. Writ large.

[Bacon King]

Counties with wildly erratic voting patterns? I offer the submission of all 149 Georgia Counties!
 
                         1972                                                    1976

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Counties with wildly erratic voting patterns? I offer the submission of all 149 Georgia Counties!
 
                         1972                                                    1976

And 1968 was:

[Bacon King]

And 1968 was:

Indeed!

There are some insane swings between each of the three elections on the local level, especially in sparsely populated rural counties. Check out these examples below; I doubt many other places in the US have voted >75% for three different parties in only eight years' time.

Echols County (most of the county is Okeefenokee swamp; far south of the state)

1968: 83% Wallace
1972: 86% Nixon
1976: 84% Carter

Miller County (the rectangular county in far southwest)

1968: 82% Wallace
1972: 92% Nixon
1976: 76% Carter

Seminole County (southwest corner of the state, just SW of Miller)

1968: 77% Wallace
1972: 83% Nixon
1976: 75% Carter

[Oldiesfreak1854]

^ I guess my post was tl:dr. Go figure a quality post with facts and numbers would kill a thread.

No wonder this forum consists of little more than garbage anymore. There's just no reason to bother with good posts. Except for the WA thread. I love the WA thread.

If it makes you feel any better, I read it yesterday morning. Mainly because I was looking to see if someone mentioned the impact of Wilkie's appeal to certain sects of German-American voters.

German-American voting patterns typically were split by religion, with German Catholics voting Democrat and German Protestants voting Republican.  At least, that's how I understand it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And 1968 was:

Indeed!

There are some insane swings between each of the three elections on the local level, especially in sparsely populated rural counties. Check out these examples below; I doubt many other places in the US have voted >75% for three different parties in only eight years' time.

Echols County (most of the county is Okeefenokee swamp; far south of the state)

1968: 83% Wallace
1972: 86% Nixon
1976: 84% Carter

Miller County (the rectangular county in far southwest)

1968: 82% Wallace
1972: 92% Nixon
1976: 76% Carter

Seminole County (southwest corner of the state, just SW of Miller)

1968: 77% Wallace
1972: 83% Nixon
1976: 75% Carter

While we're at it, check out how Miller County swung from 1960 to 1964.

[Bacon King]

Haha, oh wow, Miller County was swingy as all hell back then.

1960: 95% Kennedy
1964: 86% Goldwater
1968: 82% Wallace
1972: 92% Nixon
1976: 76% Carter

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Miller and Seminole in fact were JFK's best two counties in the country.

[mianfei]

The neighboring counties of McIntosh, North Dakota and McPherson, South Dakota were among the most politically volatile counties in the country between 1920 and 1940. Check out these results:

1920 - 94% Harding (McIntosh), 72% Harding (McPherson)
1924 - 63% La Follette (McIntosh), 68% La Follette (McPherson)
1928 - 55% Smith (McIntosh), 54% Smith (McPherson)
1932 - 87% Roosevelt (McIntosh), 81% Roosevelt (McPherson)
1936 - 52% Roosevelt (McIntosh), 55% Landon (McPherson)
1940 - 92% Willkie (McIntosh), 77% Willkie (McPherson)

Afterwards they both voted Republican by huge margins, and in 1964 they were among Goldwater's best counties outside of the South (67% in McIntosh, 72% in McPherson).

I don't know much about these two counties, aside from the fact that they both have large Russian-German populations. What caused these counties to go from erratic to rock-ribbed Republican?

Going back further we actually see that these counties were as rock-ribbed Republican before 1924 as they were after 1940:

• 1916: 77.4% Hughes (McIntosh), 80.1% Hughes (McPherson)
• 1912: 66.0% Roosevelt (McIntosh), 67.1% Roosevelt (McPherson)
• 1908: 86.5% Taft (McIntosh), 81.9% Taft (McPherson)
• 1904: 92.5% Roosevelt (McIntosh), 77.8% Roosevelt (McPherson)
• 1900: 84.0% McKinley (McIntosh), 72.5% McKinley (McPherson)

I’m sure it’s their extreme hostility to Prohibition that caused those counties to deviate between 1924 and 1936 from Republican voting comparable in solidity to the famous Unionist Appalachia bastions (Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, TN, Avery County, NC, Grant County, WV etc. etc.). Although they are primarily Lutheran rather than Catholic, their Lutheranism was/is of a liturgical variety highly hostile to government regulation of public behaviour as seen in Prohibition. Consequently, they backed whatever candidate supported repeal of Prohibition until after it was repealed.