WTF??? Do you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.
No, I don't really believe any of those states will be better for Obama than NC. As I (sort of) said I projected recent trends for each state. That will work for a lot of states, but of course some states will turn around or continue a recently initiated trend that won't show up till next election.
NC had been trending toward fairly steadily toward the Dems from the 1830s to the 1920s. Since the 1940 it has turned Rep. I suspect you are right. The stopping of the slide in 2000 and the upturn in 2004 may well be the beginning of a medium-term trned back to the Dems. (Rather than a false dawn, as there was in 1968 and 1984–88.)
If you just project NC's change from 2000 (13.4%) to 2004 (10.0%), you could predict 6.6% this time. (If I'd looked at where NC had fallen I would probably have made that change myself.)
It's an odd thing about Arkansas though: I know there was a Clinton factor, but it's been swinging heavily for the last 50 years. Solidly Dem (at least 14% from the national figure) from 1836 to 1956 (except for Grant's 2 wins during the Reconstruction). Since then though it has veered wildly, strongly Dem for an election or 2 and then fairly strongly GOP. It might not be just a Clinton factor. It might be a Southerner factor. They voted more Dem than the nation when the Dem was a southerner (George Wallace (IND) in 64, Carter in 76 and 80, Clinton in 92 and 96). But then Johnson and Gore were Southerners and in 64 and 2000 AR swung to the Reps.
So my apologies to elcorazon. I didn't give as much consideration to placement of every state as I should have.
If I could work out how to create my prediction map I would do so. Is there a further registration needed to do that?
