Probability of Democrats re-taking the House / retaining the Senate

[Franzl]

Wrong board, I know, but it'll get more attention here and it's good to compare to the President question.

[Likely Voter]

30  /  40 (20*)

*50/50 split for Senate

[Franzl]

House: Democrats need a mid-single digit lead in the PV to make it possible. Considering how the presidential race is going, and how corelated they seem to be...a possibility, albeit still rather unlikely. I'd say 30%.

Senate: Starting at 53, DEMs have 1 or 2 theoretical pick-up opportunities. Add King in Maine as an anti-Republican vote and I'd say, assuming Obama wins, that the GOP needs to pick-up at least 5 seats to take control. Possible...but not better than a 40-50% chance. So slightly liklier than not that DEMs retain power.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

15 / 60 [50-50 or better]

[Lief 🗽]

Dems have a much better chance of taking the House than they're being given credit for, IMO. If Obama wins by more than 4% or so, then it can definitely happen.

I think we should be okay in the Senate. King cancels out Nebraska, which we're obviously going to lose. Polling shows Nevada and Massachusetts as ties with a slight GOP advantage at the moment, but I think both will come home for the Democrat the end. And then it's just a matter of winning one of ND, MT, MO, or VA which are tossups.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

House:  20% Dem, 80% GOP

Senate:  55% Dem, 15% Tie, 30% GOP

[Fritz]

I am not optimistic about either.  I give Democrats taking back the House about the same odds as Romney winning the White House...maybe 10%.  The Senate will be a hard fight, I'd say 50-50 at this point.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think the Democrats will win both, to be quite frank.

[Free Palestine]

Dems have a much better chance of taking the House than they're being given credit for, IMO. If Obama wins by more than 4% or so, then it can definitely happen.

I think we should be okay in the Senate. King cancels out Nebraska, which we're obviously going to lose. Polling shows Nevada and Massachusetts as ties with a slight GOP advantage at the moment, but I think both will come home for the Democrat the end. And then it's just a matter of winning one of ND, MT, MO, or VA which are tossups.

Scott Brown has a slight lead in Massachusetts?  What is this, I don't even.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If Scott Brown beats Elizabeth Warren, America ought to just call it quits.

[RJ]

House:  20% Dem, 80% GOP

Senate:  55% Dem, 15% Tie, 30% GOP

Sounds about right.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats just are not doing enough to retake the House.  My guess is that it ends up around 230-205 in favor of the GOP.

I actually think that Democrats will do better than almost anybody expects in the Senate, actually staying even.  Democrats pick up Maine, Nevada, and Massachussetts, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. 

Allen is not going to win in Virginia.  Obama voters will not vote for somebody who stuffed dead dear in the mailboxes of people like Obama. 

McMahon will not win Connecticut.  Obama's lead will be too big there for her to overcome.

Scott Brown is only polling a point or two ahead of Warren and is well under 50% in a state that Obama is going to carry by twenty points.  I expect Warren will win by a surprisingly large 53%-47% margin. 


Nevada is a tough call, but this is a state where Democrats always seem to underpoll.  This is a state that is only getting tougher for Republicans and the partisan GOP House's "ethics" investigation into Berkely can be seen right through.  I think Berkely pulls off a narrow win in what will be the closest Senate race on election night. 

The only two "tossups" that Democrats will lose are North Dakota and Wisconsin.  These Senate races almost always break in favor of one party and will do so again.

Check back and two months to see how I did. 

[Fritz]

You did not mention Montana?

[Marokai Backbeat]

For whatever reason I feel like we have a better shot at retaining slim control of the Senate rather than taking the House. But I'm certainly open to being pleasantly surprised.

[Mr.Phips]

You did not mention Montana?

I think Tester wins by about 10,000 votes with help from the libertarian candidate.  Obama getting about 46% there will help him and Tester will get around 49% with Rehberg getting about 47%. 

[Mehmentum]

Democrats have an outside chance at retaking the house, something around what Romney has of winning the election right now.  I'd say the Dems are slightly favored to hold the Senate, thanks mostly to the Republicans.

If Obama wins the election, Democrats hold onto the Senate, and the Dems pick up 10 or so seats in the house, that would make a great headline for them.

[J. J.]

House:  25% Dem, 75% GOP

Senate:  43% Dem, 10% Tie, 47% GOP

[morgieb]

House: 20% Dem, 80% GOP
Senate: 60% Dem, 40% GOP

[Supersonic]

Taking the House: 15/20%

Retaining the Senate: 47%

[Brittain33]

Democrats have an outside chance at retaking the house, something around what Romney has of winning the election right now. 

Ooh, that's the best analogy I've seen.

[Joe Biden 2020]

House - I'll give the Democrats the benefit of the doubt and give them 25% odds to put Nancy Pelosi back in the Speakership (though, I personally think its closer to 15-20%).

Senate - I'll give the Democrats a 55% chance to keep Harry Reid in the Majority Leader slot.