Take your guess at the outcome of the 3 tightest races: VA, MA and MT
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  Take your guess at the outcome of the 3 tightest races: VA, MA and MT
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Author Topic: Take your guess at the outcome of the 3 tightest races: VA, MA and MT  (Read 2172 times)
sg0508
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« on: September 15, 2012, 11:20:05 PM »

1) VA- Democrats hang on.  The split-ticket voters will make the difference. I think Obama hangs onto the Old Dominion by a tight margin, bringing in Kaine with him.  Kaine 51-49%

2) MA- Scott Brown does the near impossible and wins a full term in a presidential year.  His numbers appear to be rising to the upper 40s, which is a good sign of protection if the democrats come home in the end, which they may in that state.  Brown 51-49%

3) MT- Jon Tester hangs on by a similar margin as he won in 2006, maybe 1-2 pts.
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morgieb
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2012, 12:42:36 AM »

Virginia and Massachusetts - Dems
Montana - Reps
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2012, 02:42:39 AM »

VA:  Kaine wins 51%-48%
MA: Warren wins 54%-46%
MT:  Tester wins 49%-47%
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2012, 09:05:03 AM »

VA:  Kaine wins 51%-48%
MA: Warren wins 54%-46%
MT:  Tester wins 49%-47%

This, more or less.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2012, 11:08:54 AM »

Believe dems will hold except Neb and ND and win Ma and Az dr carmona and new poll has her up six.wE
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Svensson
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2012, 12:10:12 PM »

1) VA - Kaine, just about. Something ridiculously close like 2006.

2) MA - Brown pulls the impossible and hangs on by some ludicrously tiny margin. Willing to bet it goes down within the percent.

3) MT - Tester, at this rate. The man is liked, and honestly for good reason, as far as I'm concerned. As Mr. Phips predicted, I'd say this comes down to about 49-47.
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Donerail
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2012, 12:43:44 PM »

1) VA - Kaine, just about. Something ridiculously close like 2006.

2) MA - Brown pulls the impossible and hangs on by some ludicrously tiny margin. Willing to bet it goes down within the percent.

3) MT - Tester, at this rate. The man is liked, and honestly for good reason, as far as I'm concerned. As Mr. Phips predicted, I'd say this comes down to about 49-47.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2012, 03:06:04 PM »

Given how many times mediocre R senate candidates win in red states over talented Dems in good Republican years, I just have to believe that a strong Obama win in Mass. takes Warren across the finish line. Brown has to win a large number of Obama voters who did not vote for him (or at all) in the special election of 2010 to win. I think the odds are stacked against him, even if Warren has trouble connecting with many Dem voters, even though Brown is a skillful politician.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2012, 04:44:21 PM »

Massachusetts and Montana are basically the same race but opposite parties. You have popular incumbent politicians in states that their presidential candidate is going to lose who are running really good campaigns against somewhat mediocre challengers. Of course Obama is going to do much better in Montana than Romney will in Massachusetts. And Tester fits his state a lot better than Scott Brown.
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sg0508
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2012, 08:53:31 PM »

Then again, I could also see a situation in which Warren suddenly breaks that MA race wide open in the final few weeks to where it's instantly called at 8pm and turns to be a near double-digit win.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2012, 09:06:02 PM »

1) VA - Kaine, just about. Something ridiculously close like 2006.

2. MA- Warren wins 50-49 as Obama coattails prove to be too much for Brown.

3. MT- Rehberg wins 51-48 as voters decide they like Tester, but they'd prefer a conservative in the Senate, along with a GOP majority.

After Tester and Brown lose reelection, they will still have chances for future office. Tester could run for the senate in 2014 if Baucus retires, or for Governor in 2016 or 2020, depending on whether Bullock wins this year. Brown could run for Governor in 2014, or run for the senate if Kerry resigns to become SOS or retires.

Both could conceivably seek rematches in 2018, but they'd likely lose.
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sg0508
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2012, 09:17:24 PM »

Keep in mind that MT is not going to be nearly as strong for Romney as MA will be for Obama.  In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if Romney won MT by five points and MT as the state has proven, will elect democrats to statewide office and even to the Senate.

It's not quite apples to apples and yes, MA elected GOP governors from 1990 to 2006, but part of the democrats' issue is that they just selected some crappy candidates.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2012, 12:18:10 PM »

Virginia - It could go either way - I think that whoever wins Virginia between Obama and Romney will also carry their Senate candidate across the finish line.

Massachusetts - Brown will hang on by the smallest of margins.

Montana - On election day, polling will show Rehberg ahead by a point or so. However, I predict he'll do slightly better than that, winning around 51-47.
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Franzl
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« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2012, 12:29:09 PM »

All 3 to the Democrats. If one goes GOP, it'll be Montana.
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2012, 12:38:58 PM »

Brown can't win with the Presidential election on the same day. I predict a Harry Reid margin of about 6 points in Massatuchets. Virginia is another state where Kaine will ride Obamas coattails which will get him to a 2% margin win. In Montana I expect the Republicans to pick it up in the end but make it competetive so who knows.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2012, 12:52:32 PM »

I'm with Tmth, but I'd say if VA goes Romney by less than 2 then Kaine might still have a tiny edge due to Romney/Kaine voters in NOVA.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2012, 03:52:41 PM »

I'd expect most Romney/Kaine voters to be in Southwest Virginia, where some conservative Democrats really hate Obama.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2012, 04:26:23 PM »

So far it looks like there are more Obama/Allen voters than there are Romney/Kaine voters. I have no idea who these Obama/Allen people are, but they make up like 2-3% of the state apparently.
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Vosem
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2012, 05:14:06 PM »

Virginia -- Allen will do a couple points better than Romney. This one will be very close; I think Allen is maybe a very, very slight favorite in a neutral year, but if Obama's victory is decisive enough Kaine could still win.

Massachusetts -- I'm fairly confident Brown will ultimately win; he's running a better campaign and he's a much better candidate for the state. Yes, Warren has the lead right now, I'll admit to that. But it's difficult for me to imagine her winning.

Montana -- This one is the opposite; while it's very close, I think Tester is an intrinsically better candidate than Rehberg, though the difference here isn't quite as big as that in Massachusetts. Rehberg could win, but I think I'll go with Tester.

So far it looks like there are more Obama/Allen voters than there are Romney/Kaine voters. I have no idea who these Obama/Allen people are, but they make up like 2-3% of the state apparently.

Yes, this.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2012, 05:20:31 PM »

Resident Virginians care to explain the Obama/Allen voters for we outsiders? Tongue
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2012, 07:19:54 PM »

MA: Warren by 51/49 as partisans come home despite a moderate, well-liked incumbent

MT: Rehberg by 50/48 see also: MA

VA: Kaine by <10,000 votes after a recount.  Obama wins the state 51/47 and pulls him over the line.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2012, 07:52:22 PM »

Resident Virginians care to explain the Obama/Allen voters for we outsiders? Tongue

Polling suggests them to be nonblack minorities.
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rbt48
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« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2012, 10:03:46 PM »

As for Brown's chances up against a 2 to 1 Obama win in MA, recall that John Volpe was elected Governor there in 1960 when JFK handily defeated Nixon, and, after losing to Peabody in 1962, was elected again in 1964 while LBJ was drubbing Goldwater.  They know how to split tickets in Massachusetts, so I don't count Brown out.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2012, 10:08:40 PM »

As for Brown's chances up against a 2 to 1 Obama win in MA, recall that John Volpe was elected Governor there in 1960 when JFK handily defeated Nixon, and, after losing to Peabody in 1962, was elected again in 1964 while LBJ was drubbing Goldwater.  They know how to split tickets in Massachusetts, so I don't count Brown out.

Politics were far less polarized back then. 
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2012, 04:56:11 AM »

As for Brown's chances up against a 2 to 1 Obama win in MA, recall that John Volpe was elected Governor there in 1960 when JFK handily defeated Nixon, and, after losing to Peabody in 1962, was elected again in 1964 while LBJ was drubbing Goldwater.  They know how to split tickets in Massachusetts, so I don't count Brown out.

Politics were far less polarized back then. 

Exactly. Volpe was far from being a conservative, especially by present day Republican standards. And LBJ wasn't a flaming liberal on all issues..
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