Take your guess at the outcome of the 3 tightest races: VA, MA and MT

[Brittain33]

Given how many times mediocre R senate candidates win in red states over talented Dems in good Republican years, I just have to believe that a strong Obama win in Mass. takes Warren across the finish line. Brown has to win a large number of Obama voters who did not vote for him (or at all) in the special election of 2010 to win. I think the odds are stacked against him, even if Warren has trouble connecting with many Dem voters, even though Brown is a skillful politician.

[Brittain33]

As for Brown's chances up against a 2 to 1 Obama win in MA, recall that John Volpe was elected Governor there in 1960 when JFK handily defeated Nixon, and, after losing to Peabody in 1962, was elected again in 1964 while LBJ was drubbing Goldwater.  They know how to split tickets in Massachusetts, so I don't count Brown out.

That was 50 years ago and for a state race, not federal. If we know how to split tickets, we haven't shown it since 1992 and a couple of House elections. Note that Brown won in 2010 with virtually no ticket splitting. While he has some Obama votes in 2012, sure, in 2010 he got no more votes than McCain did in 2008.

The 1996 election is more relevant, I think.