Take your guess at the outcome of the 3 tightest races: VA, MA and MT

[sg0508]

1) VA- Democrats hang on.  The split-ticket voters will make the difference. I think Obama hangs onto the Old Dominion by a tight margin, bringing in Kaine with him.  Kaine 51-49%

2) MA- Scott Brown does the near impossible and wins a full term in a presidential year.  His numbers appear to be rising to the upper 40s, which is a good sign of protection if the democrats come home in the end, which they may in that state.  Brown 51-49%

3) MT- Jon Tester hangs on by a similar margin as he won in 2006, maybe 1-2 pts.

[sg0508]

Then again, I could also see a situation in which Warren suddenly breaks that MA race wide open in the final few weeks to where it's instantly called at 8pm and turns to be a near double-digit win.

[sg0508]

Keep in mind that MT is not going to be nearly as strong for Romney as MA will be for Obama.  In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if Romney won MT by five points and MT as the state has proven, will elect democrats to statewide office and even to the Senate.

It's not quite apples to apples and yes, MA elected GOP governors from 1990 to 2006, but part of the democrats' issue is that they just selected some crappy candidates.

[sg0508]

The VA race could end up being very similar to the MI race in 2000.  Abraham was neck and neck with Stabenow until Gore broke up the state in the final week with the Bush DUI issue.  Then Stabenow pulled ahead and that was that.

Watch the last week where the last 10% or so make up their minds.