MA-Western New England Polling Institute: Warren gets bounce, now ahead by 6
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  MA-Western New England Polling Institute: Warren gets bounce, now ahead by 6
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Author Topic: MA-Western New England Polling Institute: Warren gets bounce, now ahead by 6  (Read 908 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 16, 2012, 01:20:23 AM »

The survey of Bay State voters conducted Sept. 6-13 by the Western New England Polling Institute through a partnership with The Republican and MassLive.com, shows Warren leading over Brown, 50 to 44 percent, among likely voters.

The gap among registered voters is even larger, according to the survey, which concluded Warren leads 53 to 41 percent. The poll of 545 registered voters has a 4.2 percent margin of error, while the sample of 444 likely voters has a 4.6 percent margin of error.

http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/09/poll_elizabeth_warren_pulls_ah.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2012, 01:24:41 AM »

Scott Brown could end up like Lincoln Chafee in 2006. Voted out with a 55-60% approval rating.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2012, 02:26:38 AM »

Seems like a bit of an outlier to me, as the past 10 polls have shown the race within 2 points either way.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2012, 02:40:39 AM »

I am betting that Warren ends up winning this race by surprisingly large margin.  It might even be called as soon as polls close. 
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morgieb
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2012, 03:04:35 AM »

This doesn't sound right...particularly given Warren was a fair way behind just a month ago.

What is this polling group's track record?
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2012, 03:55:09 AM »

I'd certainly like to think so, but I seriously doubt it. I do think the race has probably narrowed in Warren's favor since the DNC, though.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2012, 08:26:56 AM »

This pollster got the Governor's race right in 2010, they had Patrick up eight, whereas won by 6.4%, so not too far off. I think this one is starting to close up, people are actually starting to pay attention and partisanship is playing more of a role.

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Badger
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2012, 08:36:30 AM »

Seems like a bit of an outlier to me, as the past 10 polls have shown the race within 2 points either way.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2012, 12:38:24 PM »

PPP will release a poll of this race tonight, but I don't think Warren taking the lead here is that far-fetched. Polls have shown that Democrats have become a lot more enthusiastic in blue states since the DNC (Obama is back to his 2008-level leads in California and New York, for instance) and the idea that Brown was ever going to run away with this race in Massachusetts was always kind of ridiculous. People may personally like him, but at the end of the day a vote for Scott Brown is a vote for Jim Demint and Jim Inhofe running the senate.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2012, 12:40:35 PM »

Speaking right before Clinton was the best thing that could have happened to her. However, it's probably a little bit closer.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2012, 05:06:47 PM »

PPP says Warren leads too, at least a six point swing to her since August: https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/247451449250955264

Warren clearly has the big mo.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2012, 06:58:10 PM »

... but at the end of the day a vote for Scott Brown is a vote for Jim Demint and Jim Inhofe running the senate.

You just named two people with sub 10% name recognition in Massachusetts.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2012, 07:00:06 PM »

... but at the end of the day a vote for Scott Brown is a vote for Jim Demint and Jim Inhofe running the senate.

You just named two people with sub 10% name recognition in Massachusetts.

They may not know their names but they know their policies and beliefs, which are toxic in a blue state like Massachusetts.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2012, 07:05:04 PM »

... but at the end of the day a vote for Scott Brown is a vote for Jim Demint and Jim Inhofe running the senate.

You just named two people with sub 10% name recognition in Massachusetts.

They may not know their names but they know their policies and beliefs, which are toxic in a blue state like Massachusetts.

Just as a general point, I believe the community here has a great overestimation of how powerful the "a vote for person x is a vote for person y" argument is with most people.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2012, 07:48:37 PM »

Just as a general point, I believe the community here has a great overestimation of how powerful the "a vote for person x is a vote for person y" argument is with most people.

It does seem like people running for office in Republican areas think it's worthwhile to publicly ask their opponents if they'll be voting for Pelosi for Speaker of the House, and this has been a feature of random elections going back at least to 2000 with Gephardt.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2012, 08:00:59 PM »

Certainly there's some truth to that. But at the same time the "a vote for person x is a vote for person y" clearly affects some significant population of voters, or else senate elections wouldn't be so much more partisan than gubernatorial elections. Surely if Scott Brown were the incumbent governor of Massachusetts running against Elizabeth Warren, he'd be winning handily right now.
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