Changes in Black & Asian shares of the Electorate.

[DC Al Fine]

Everyone knows that the white share of the electorate is decreasing while the Hispanic share is increasing. Where are blacks and Asians in this? Is their proportion of the electorate growing, shrinking or holding it's own?

[Frodo]

Everyone knows that the white share of the electorate is decreasing while the Hispanic share is increasing. Where are blacks and Asians in this? Is their proportion of the electorate growing, shrinking or holding it's own?

Are you referring to figures projected to mid-century?  Blacks are staying static at around 13% or so, while the Asian electorate will be expanding exponentially (albeit from a very low floor) to nearly 10%. 

[Benj]

As a percent of the electorate, black voters stayed the same from 2008 to 2012. There was a dramatic increase from 2004 to 2008 due to improved turnout; it's not clear how well that increase will hold up once Obama is gone (but it certainly could be the new normal). In the long term, black voters nationally are likely to be more or less stable.

However, the distribution of the black vote is changing. The black vote is dropping in many Northern states, and also in California, while growing significantly in the South, especially Georgia. By 2030 or so, Georgia is likely to have surpassed New York as the state with the largest black population, though Florida may briefly be on top around 2020 before Georgia surpasses both states.

(That's in absolute terms, not as a percentage of the population. As a percentage of the population, Mississippi has the highest black population, though I suppose by 2030 Georgia could have surpassed it.)

The Asian population and Asian voters are growing at about an equal rate with Hispanics, though they're starting from a lower base, and the areas of Asian growth are not the same as the areas of Hispanic growth (though some, like California and Nevada, are).

[Frodo]

As a percent of the electorate, black voters stayed the same from 2008 to 2012. There was a dramatic increase from 2004 to 2008 due to improved turnout; it's not clear how well that increase will hold up once Obama is gone (but it certainly could be the new normal). In the long term, black voters nationally are likely to be more or less stable.

However, the distribution of the black vote is changing. The black vote is dropping in many Northern states, and also in California, while growing significantly in the South, especially Georgia. By 2030 or so, Georgia is likely to have surpassed New York as the state with the largest black population, though Florida may briefly be on top around 2020 before Georgia surpasses both states.

(That's in absolute terms, not as a percentage of the population. As a percentage of the population, Mississippi has the highest black population, though I suppose by 2030 Georgia could have surpassed it.)

No mention of Maryland? 

[minionofmidas]

The neither-Black-nor-White population of Maryland is growing a bit too fast for that.

[Asian Nazi]

However, the distribution of the black vote is changing. The black vote is dropping in many Northern states, and also in California, while growing significantly in the South, especially Georgia. By 2030 or so, Georgia is likely to have surpassed New York as the state with the largest black population, though Florida may briefly be on top around 2020 before Georgia surpasses both states.

Source?  I'm not saying that I don't believe this, I'd just be fascinated to see the numbers.

[Benj]

However, the distribution of the black vote is changing. The black vote is dropping in many Northern states, and also in California, while growing significantly in the South, especially Georgia. By 2030 or so, Georgia is likely to have surpassed New York as the state with the largest black population, though Florida may briefly be on top around 2020 before Georgia surpasses both states.

Source?  I'm not saying that I don't believe this, I'd just be fascinated to see the numbers.

Just as a start: http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-06.pdf - See pages 7 and 8. Also, while those show growth in absolute terms, in many places (Illinois, Michigan, New York, California), that's a decline in relative terms (i.e., the black population is growing, but more slowly than the non-black population, so blacks are becoming a smaller portion of the overall population).