Do Tax Cuts Lead to Economic Growth? (user search)
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  Do Tax Cuts Lead to Economic Growth? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Do Tax Cuts Lead to Economic Growth?  (Read 5686 times)
Beet
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« on: September 16, 2012, 09:11:12 AM »

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2012/09/15/opinion/15captial-graph.html?ref=sunday
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Beet
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2012, 04:06:20 PM »

So basically, we're just going to ignore empirical evidence and repeat our religion of Mammon. Makes sense.
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Beet
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2012, 07:04:57 PM »

I'm disappointed, Beet. Surely, you know as well as I do that this graph doesn't really constitute 'empirical evidence'?

Well, that's true. I must admit I put on different hats depending on who I'm talking to. Still, the chart speaks against tax cuts as being an overwhelming or dominant variable in recent growth.
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Beet
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2012, 08:30:24 AM »

I'm disappointed, Beet. Surely, you know as well as I do that this graph doesn't really constitute 'empirical evidence'?

Well, that's true. I must admit I put on different hats depending on who I'm talking to. Still, the chart speaks against tax cuts as being an overwhelming or dominant variable in recent growth.

No, there is something to that point. But to establish correlation, one would like to see a graph that included the tax rate as an explanatory variable rather than just pointing out points in time.

Of course I'm aware of that. But of course, it's not easy to determine which explanatory variables to include, for I don't think even economists have divined the formula for economic growth. And as you know, if you don't include the right variables you will get spurious results. Some economists, being human, unfortunately also have agendas, although this can be mitigated in the case of peer review. Bottom line, there's some value to showing that tax cuts are not the dominant variable in terms of stimulating growth; because if the claim is that the solution to improve the economy is lower taxehen and that alone, then that would need to be true.
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2012, 02:16:59 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2012, 02:18:37 PM by Beet »

And what do you know, this is what I get for posting things from my smartphone where I look at the picture and don't even look at the actual article. This image is backed up by a study after all. The study spans 65 years and it's from the Congressional Research Service. They found:

Analysis of six decades of data found that top tax rates "have had little association with saving, investment, or productivity growth." However, the study found that reductions of capital gains taxes and top marginal rate taxes have led to greater income inequality. Past studies cited in the report have suggested that a broad-based tax rate reduction can have "a small to modest, positive effect on economic growth" or "no effect on economic growth."

Table A-I and A-II at the end of the report do include regression analyses. Let's hope someone over there has taken econometrics Smiley

Also, it's worth noting:

"These results are generally consistent with previous research on tax cuts. Some studies find that a broad based tax rate reduction has a small to modest, positive effect on economic growth.25 Other studies have found that a broad based tax reduction, such as the Bush tax cuts, has no effect on economic growth.26 It would be reasonable to assume that a tax rate change limited to a small group of taxpayers at the top of the income distribution would have a negligible effect on
economic growth."

What they are referring to @ 26 are the following citations:

"Martin Feldstein and Douglas W. Elmendorf, “Budget Deficits, Tax Incentives, and Inflation: A Surprising Lesson
from the 1983-1984 Recovery,” in Tax Policy and the Economy, ed. Lawrence H. Summers, vol. 3 (Cambridge, MA:
MIT Press, 1989), pp. 1-23; William G. Gale and Samara R. Potter, “An Economic Evaluation of the Economic Growth
and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001,” National Tax Journal, vol. 55, no. 1 (March 2002), pp. 133-186; and
William G. Gale and Peter R. Orszag, “Economic Effects of Making the 2001 and 2003 Tax Cuts Permanent,”
International Tax and Public Finance, vol. 12 (2005), pp. 193-232."

Since Martin Felstein was Ronald Reagan's director at the Council of Economic Advisors, I don't think this analysis could be skewed by any sort of liberal agenda. In their 1989 abstract of the paper (http://www.nber.org/papers/w2819) on the Reagan recovery, they write:

"The first two years of the economic expansion that began in 1983 were unusually strong and were accompanied by better inflation performance than would have been expected on the basis of experience in past recoveries. Our evidence contradicts the popular view that the recovery was the result of a consumer boom financed by reductions in the personal income tax. We also find no support for the proposition that the recovery reflected an increase in the supply of labor induced by the reduction in personal marginal tax rates. The driving force behind the recovery of nominal demand was the shift to an expansionary monetary policy"

Of course, I don't expect any of this to sway a certain poster, who has proved himself impervious to actual argument.
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Beet
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2012, 02:47:51 PM »


It's not. Wink
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Beet
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2012, 09:01:27 PM »

I'd like to discuss this more in-depth but right now PhD math is kind of sucking up all my time (as well as a lot of personal stuff going on).

Beet, do you have an opinion on all the stuff done by Prescott and his disciples about how tax rates affect labour supply and thus GDP?

It seems to me that most of his work is about a fixed marginal tax on labor supply, whereas the "tax cuts" being discussed here are primarily about how progressive the tax curve is. I'm more sympathetic to the notion that across-the-board tax cuts could increase labor supply than I am that cuts in marginal rates would increase labor supply. The former question is essentially the same as asking what the elasticity of labor is. Also there is a disconnect in economics between macroeconomic models like those of Prescott, which tend to find larger overall elasticities of labor supply, and microeconomic models which find small elasticities. I found this paper which seems to suggest that Prescott's methodology is flawed, but you still get high labor elasticitiy if programs such as social security were reformed to make the retirement age more flexible.
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Beet
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2012, 04:30:04 PM »

I'd like to discuss this more in-depth but right now PhD math is kind of sucking up all my time (as well as a lot of personal stuff going on).

Beet, do you have an opinion on all the stuff done by Prescott and his disciples about how tax rates affect labour supply and thus GDP?

It seems to me that most of his work is about a fixed marginal tax on labor supply, whereas the "tax cuts" being discussed here are primarily about how progressive the tax curve is. I'm more sympathetic to the notion that across-the-board tax cuts could increase labor supply than I am that cuts in marginal rates would increase labor supply. The former question is essentially the same as asking what the elasticity of labor is. Also there is a disconnect in economics between macroeconomic models like those of Prescott, which tend to find larger overall elasticities of labor supply, and microeconomic models which find small elasticities. I found this paper which seems to suggest that Prescott's methodology is flawed, but you still get high labor elasticitiy if programs such as social security were reformed to make the retirement age more flexible.

From what I've understood the mismatch between micro and macro can largely be explained through more refined methodology. It has to do with things like household action, binary nature of employment, the so-called shadow wage, etc.

Incidentally, Ljungqvist is one of my professors - he taught me in Macro a couple of years ago. Smiley The paper you link was part of my course literature last year too.

Sometimes I envy you guys... then I think of all the math that you have to do. Smiley
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Beet
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2012, 01:28:26 PM »

The Kennedy tax cuts also didn't take place until 1964-- well after the expansion had already started.
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