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Author Topic: Australia with Canadian parties  (Read 1806 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: September 16, 2012, 10:41:00 am »
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No BQ. What would this look like?
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Talleyrand
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2012, 11:44:57 am »
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Wow... this is an interesting one.

My guess is the NDP would be strongest in Tasmania (and the dominant party in the ACT), but the Liberals would be the most powerful party in NSW, South Australia, and Victoria, with the exception of the Northern Territory, Queensland, and Western Australia, which the Conservative Party would do well in.

What politicians do you think would fit in each party? I'd probably put John Howard and Tony Abbott with the Conservatives, Rudd, Keating, Fraser, and Hawke with the Liberals, and Gillard and Whitlam with the NDP.

Also, Senator Bob Brown would be an Elizabeth May-type figure, before finally winning the seat of Denison.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2012, 11:47:39 am by TexasDem »Logged
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2012, 12:02:51 pm »
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Whitlam could be a left-Liberal like Paul Martin Sr. or Mike Pearson. Alternately he's an NDPer who joins the Liberals for power like PET. Depends if you have AV or FPTP as the electoral system which would determine whether there's a unified LDP, Lib/NDP or Lib/Con coalition, etc.

Fraser: In the day he'd probably be a Red Tory. Nowadays he'd be a Liberal.
Hawke: Liberal
Keating: Liberal
Howard: Conservative
Gillard: NDP or left-Liberal
Abbott: Conservative
Costello: Conservative
Latham: NDP
Shorten: Liberal
Turnbull: Liberal
« Last Edit: September 16, 2012, 12:33:48 pm by Romney/Ryan 2012! »Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Talleyrand
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2012, 12:16:55 pm »
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Does the PC party exist in this scenario?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2012, 12:43:03 pm »
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The conditions required for the original renaming and ideological Balkanization don't exist here, so the "historical" (Sir John A.'s IRL) CPC keeps its name. No PC Party.

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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Talleyrand
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2012, 12:46:02 pm »
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The conditions required for the original renaming and ideological Balkanization don't exist here, so the "historical" (Sir John A.'s IRL) CPC keeps its name. No PC Party.



Ah, okay. Thanks for the clarification.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2012, 04:10:34 pm »
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This is interesting idea.  I'm guessing Rudd would either be one of the socially conservative Liberals or a Red Tory.  I also think, given how desperate she seems to be for power, that Gillard would be a left-leaning Liberal.  Plibersek, Combet, Andrew Leigh, Albanese, Wong, Carr, Garrett, and Macklin would be Dippers.  Roxon is tricky to say.  Ferguson could also fall into either the Liberals or the NDP.  Wayne Swan is even harder to call.  He's been calling for the fight against income inequality to return to the ALP's platform, yet he's quite the SoCon.  Since someone who opposes same-sex marriage can't get anywhere in the NDP (and rightfully so), he'd be lucky to become an NDP MP.  Burke is a similar case.  In fact, there are probably tons of people like this.  And given how "hippie" the NDP and Liberals both tend to be, I think a lot of the socially conservative working class areas where people like Swan and Burke have appeal would simply vote Tory, the same way lots of socially conservative poor areas in Canada do.  Maybe the Liberals would have them, but even they have a metropolitan image which would alienate them to the working class.  Shorten I'm guessing would be a Liberal.  Crean, Latham, Smith, Weatherill, and others along those lines. 
Given the appeal the Torries have gotten in the west by portraying the Liberals as snobby elites, they'd probably have a similar appeal in Australia.  Pretty much everyone in the coalition would be a Torry.  And the Canadian Greens and the Australian Greens are really different, too, so I kinda think that Bob Brown could well be a Dipper. 
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morgieb
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2012, 04:17:35 pm »
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Liberals would win the inner-city areas and minorities.
NDP would do well in Green areas plus "communitarian" leaning areas (so Hunter Valley might be an NDP rather than a Liberal stronghold)
Tories would win rural areas and wealthy suburbs.

At least that's what I think. It'll be interesting to see where the SoCon ALP members go. Also interesting to see if the Turnbull/Fraser types are Red Tories or Liberals.
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morgieb
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2012, 04:49:31 pm »
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Might something like BQ appear in North Queensland or somewhere? Although I don't think they're calling for outright state soverignty, lol.
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Smid
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2012, 05:03:05 pm »
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Liberals may win some inner affluent suburbs, I think V-Quadra is reasonably affluent, at least in the parts safest for the Grits?
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morgieb
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2012, 06:33:24 pm »
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This is interesting idea.  I'm guessing Rudd would either be one of the socially conservative Liberals or a Red Tory.  I also think, given how desperate she seems to be for power, that Gillard would be a left-leaning Liberal.  Plibersek, Combet, Andrew Leigh, Albanese, Wong, Carr, Garrett, and Macklin would be Dippers.  Roxon is tricky to say.  Ferguson could also fall into either the Liberals or the NDP.  Wayne Swan is even harder to call.  He's been calling for the fight against income inequality to return to the ALP's platform, yet he's quite the SoCon.  Since someone who opposes same-sex marriage can't get anywhere in the NDP (and rightfully so), he'd be lucky to become an NDP MP.  Burke is a similar case.  In fact, there are probably tons of people like this.  And given how "hippie" the NDP and Liberals both tend to be, I think a lot of the socially conservative working class areas where people like Swan and Burke have appeal would simply vote Tory, the same way lots of socially conservative poor areas in Canada do.  Maybe the Liberals would have them, but even they have a metropolitan image which would alienate them to the working class.  Shorten I'm guessing would be a Liberal.  Crean, Latham, Smith, Weatherill, and others along those lines. 
Given the appeal the Torries have gotten in the west by portraying the Liberals as snobby elites, they'd probably have a similar appeal in Australia.  Pretty much everyone in the coalition would be a Torry.  And the Canadian Greens and the Australian Greens are really different, too, so I kinda think that Bob Brown could well be a Dipper. 
Wouldn't Carr be a Grit?


Unless you're talking about Kim Tongue
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2012, 06:55:52 pm »
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This is interesting idea.  I'm guessing Rudd would either be one of the socially conservative Liberals or a Red Tory.  I also think, given how desperate she seems to be for power, that Gillard would be a left-leaning Liberal.  Plibersek, Combet, Andrew Leigh, Albanese, Wong, Carr, Garrett, and Macklin would be Dippers.  Roxon is tricky to say.  Ferguson could also fall into either the Liberals or the NDP.  Wayne Swan is even harder to call.  He's been calling for the fight against income inequality to return to the ALP's platform, yet he's quite the SoCon.  Since someone who opposes same-sex marriage can't get anywhere in the NDP (and rightfully so), he'd be lucky to become an NDP MP.  Burke is a similar case.  In fact, there are probably tons of people like this.  And given how "hippie" the NDP and Liberals both tend to be, I think a lot of the socially conservative working class areas where people like Swan and Burke have appeal would simply vote Tory, the same way lots of socially conservative poor areas in Canada do.  Maybe the Liberals would have them, but even they have a metropolitan image which would alienate them to the working class.  Shorten I'm guessing would be a Liberal.  Crean, Latham, Smith, Weatherill, and others along those lines. 
Given the appeal the Torries have gotten in the west by portraying the Liberals as snobby elites, they'd probably have a similar appeal in Australia.  Pretty much everyone in the coalition would be a Torry.  And the Canadian Greens and the Australian Greens are really different, too, so I kinda think that Bob Brown could well be a Dipper. 
Wouldn't Carr be a Grit?


Unless you're talking about Kim Tongue
Yeah, sorry, I meant Kim.  Forgot that he's not the only Carr in the cabinet anymore.  Bob Carr probably would be a Grit. 
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2012, 07:05:24 pm »
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Some things we should establish:

1) Voting system: STV or FPTP?

2) Is there a Coalition or some sorts, in either voting system? Say, Lib/NDP v. Con?

3) If not, is there a merger? Like say an LDP or "National" (merged Lib/Con) party?
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Talleyrand
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« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2012, 07:13:32 pm »
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Some things we should establish:

1) Voting system: STV or FPTP?

2) Is there a Coalition or some sorts, in either voting system? Say, Lib/NDP v. Con?

3) If not, is there a merger? Like say an LDP or "National" (merged Lib/Con) party?

1. FPTP

2. When together they have numbers to form a majority, there would likely be some sort of agreement between the NDP and Liberals.
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Smid
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« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2012, 07:40:57 pm »
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I have a blank Australian map in the gallery if we wish to speculate on individual riding results in a "typical" election year (or in a 2011 Orange Crush, or a 2008 Tories just short of majority, etc).
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2012, 08:02:18 pm »
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Or just a Liberal minority government asking for support from either Tories or Dippers depending on the situation as is the case here.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2012, 08:22:23 pm »
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Orange Crush came primarily in Quebec, so it might not happen here. Some other guesses:

1980: Either a Liberal or Tory minority government, but more likely a Red-Orange coalition.

1983: Liberal landslide.

1984: Tory majority?

1987: Small Liberal majority due to Tory infighting.

*1990: Tory majority.

1993: Liberal majority, IRL Keating got a big primary swing which would be a much more comfortable majority with FPTP than what he actually did with STV.

1996: Tory landslide.

1998: Liberal/NDP coalition or Liberal minority government.

2001: Tory majority.

2004: Tory landslide.

2007: Liberal landslide.

2010: Tory majority.

*Analogues, since obviously with 4/5 year parliamentary terms the electoral cycle would be different. These guesses are based off primary votes.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Smid
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« Reply #17 on: September 16, 2012, 08:39:07 pm »
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The union links to the NDP could see it performing not dissimilarly to Labor in a fair number of seats, I suspect.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #18 on: September 16, 2012, 08:59:16 pm »
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The union links to the NDP could see it performing not dissimilarly to Labor in a fair number of seats, I suspect.
Yeah, but would the conservative unions that back the ALP be willing to support a party that supports gay marriage, pot legalization (at least under Layton), etc.?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #19 on: September 16, 2012, 09:02:17 pm »
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The union links to the NDP could see it performing not dissimilarly to Labor in a fair number of seats, I suspect.

So there has to be either a permanent coalition like IRL's Lib/Nat one or a merged LDP. Which would be extremely difficult, if not downright impossible given the ideological/cultural disparity. The NDP, even today, will never assent to an economic program like HK Lab's or anything remotely similar. Liberals would have to work with the Tories.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Smid
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« Reply #20 on: September 16, 2012, 09:08:53 pm »
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The union links to the NDP could see it performing not dissimilarly to Labor in a fair number of seats, I suspect.

So there has to be either a permanent coalition like IRL's Lib/Nat one or a merged LDP. Which would be extremely difficult, if not downright impossible given the ideological/cultural disparity. The NDP, even today, will never assent to an economic program like HK Lab's or anything remotely similar. Liberals would have to work with the Tories.


Perhaps like BC? NDP vs BC Liberals? Be interesting to see the development of the NDP in this scenario - it started out as an agrarian socialist party, CCF, didn't? If that's the case, perhaps the Liberals would have had the greater links to the urban unionised workforce?

The other way to approach it is if we look at ridings and have a bit of a guess at their foreign equivalent (either look at a Canadian riding and work out what Australian electorate it resembles, or look at an Australian electorate, and guess how it might have voted in certain Canadian elections by drawing a parallel with a Canadian riding).
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morgieb
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« Reply #21 on: September 16, 2012, 11:11:51 pm »
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Orange Crush came primarily in Quebec, so it might not happen here. Some other guesses:

1980: Either a Liberal or Tory minority government, but more likely a Red-Orange coalition.

1983: Liberal landslide.

1984: Tory majority?

1987: Small Liberal majority due to Tory infighting.

*1990: Tory majority.

1993: Liberal majority, IRL Keating got a big primary swing which would be a much more comfortable majority with FPTP than what he actually did with STV.

1996: Tory landslide.

1998: Liberal/NDP coalition or Liberal minority government.

2001: Tory majority.

2004: Tory landslide.

2007: Liberal landslide.

2010: Tory majority.

*Analogues, since obviously with 4/5 year parliamentary terms the electoral cycle would be different. These guesses are based off primary votes.

84 would still be a Liberal majority. It was 48-45 on primary votes that year.
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morgieb
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« Reply #22 on: September 17, 2012, 01:37:36 am »
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I'll do a couple of seats right now.

Grayndler

NDP stronghold, winning the counter-culturish areas (Newtown) and the more working-class ones (Marrickville). The areas further from the cities however may vote Liberal.

Sydney

NDP-Liberal swing seat, with the NDP winning areas around Glebe but the Liberals winning wealthier areas in the CBD. A high gay population helps the NDP, however parts of the seat is rapidly gentrifying.

Banks

Would probably "lean" Tory, however the Liberals would have a base with ethnic voters around Hurstville and more poorer places around East Hills/Riverwood.
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« Reply #23 on: September 17, 2012, 04:00:54 am »
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I suspect the Liberals would be a very, very small party, in permanent coalition with the Tories, and taking seats like Wentworth and Kooyong. Kind of like the Nationals, but exactly the opposite. The NDP would be the primary left wing party by quite a lot.

The Tory/Liberal coalition would be strong, but the NDP would govern very occasionally. Probably lots of 15 to 20 year Tory/Lib governments, followed by 6 to 9 year NDP governments.
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Smid
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« Reply #24 on: September 17, 2012, 05:05:53 am »
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I suspect the Liberals would be a very, very small party, in permanent coalition with the Tories, and taking seats like Wentworth and Kooyong. Kind of like the Nationals, but exactly the opposite. The NDP would be the primary left wing party by quite a lot.

The Tory/Liberal coalition would be strong, but the NDP would govern very occasionally. Probably lots of 15 to 20 year Tory/Lib governments, followed by 6 to 9 year NDP governments.

A small moderate party forming coalition governments with a more rightwing party? Sounds like you described the Queensland coalition, pre-LNP merger.

Edit: A simplification, of course, but to prove your point. The dominance of the union movement in Australia could only give rise to a Labor Party of some description, which would be the NDP in this scenario. That's why I think we're best off working out comparisons for electorates.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2012, 05:27:48 am by Smid »Logged
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