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Author Topic: Australia with Canadian parties  (Read 1812 times)
Smid
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« Reply #25 on: September 18, 2012, 06:19:41 am »
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I've heard it suggested by a few Canadians who have been over here (including Mrs Smid, but also various Canadian tourists waiting on tables, etc), that the "feel" of some cities make them quite comparable.

Melbourne and Vancouver, for example, often compete for The Economist's "World's Most Liveable City" and have quite a similar culture.

Sydney is similar to Toronto, as a large, sprawling city.

Calgary and Brisbane, and I suspect Perth also. Queensland has beaches, while Alberta has mountains, but both attract tourists. Both also are some of the top beef producers in the world, but the state/provincial economy is more resource-driven. WA is probably also more like rural Alberta. Western NSW, and rural Victoria are probably similar to either rural Alberta, rural BC or rural Manitoba/Saskatchewan.

Lingiari, in the Northern Territory is not dissimilar to the large northern ridings of Ontario, Saskatchewan or Manitoba. The Kimberly region in it is mining, but I think not enough to compare the seat to Fort Mac. I think there is some mining in Northern Ontario? Earl can probably enlighten me there. If so, Hunter is probably much the same.

Tasmania is small, like PEI, but I think votes more like Newfoundland.

Adelaide is probably a bit like Halifax, although I could be mistaken. Adelaide has a lot of manufacturing. Actually it could be a bit like Windsor and Essex, but with more people. Maybe a combination of Windsor, Essex and London. Sturt and Boothby less so, and rural South Australia, including the Adelaide Hills (Mayo) isn't.

Newcastle and the Illawarra are probably like Hamilton, or perhaps Windsor again.
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Smid
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« Reply #26 on: September 18, 2012, 06:25:04 am »
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The question about Northern Ontario is more about Timmins, I think, or Churchill in Manitoba.

Anyway, just some thoughts to make comparisons easier. Others might disagree with me.
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« Reply #27 on: September 18, 2012, 07:13:09 am »
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And Canberra is  like Ottawa? Cheesy
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« Reply #28 on: September 18, 2012, 05:36:03 pm »
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And Canberra is  like Ottawa? Cheesy

Probably so, but I can't see Canberra having a Tory-voting O-West Nepean, or O-Orléans. Perhaps if you disregarded those two ridings, but factored in Hull and Gatineau as part of Greater Ottawa. Canberra if smaller, though, I think, but it's probably comparable. Hugh would have a better idea, though.

Edit: Obviously without the Francophone element. Perhaps Ottawa-West Nepean or Ottawa-Orleans may not be dissimilar from Eden-Monaro? Half the seat is very rural, the other half is public service suburbia that spilt out of Canberra, hence why it's a swing seat, and has been the litmas seat since I think 1975? The suburbia part is growing - as reflected in the seat losing tracts of rural areas over the last few redistributions (despite NSW losing seats in that time, meaning the average geographic size of an electorate is expanding).
« Last Edit: September 18, 2012, 06:10:03 pm by Smid »Logged
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« Reply #29 on: September 18, 2012, 07:06:43 pm »
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Only really tiny portions of either Ottawa-Orleans or OWN are rural. Under a very liberal definition of "rural", exactly 1000 votes were cast in 'rural' polls in Orleans in 2011, the rest of the riding is by and large a mix of older (70s-80s) and newer upper middle-class suburbs with lots of public servants and a large Franco population. OWN is even less rural, only one poll seems to be 'rural' and it cast 201 votes in 2011. I know less about OWN, but it's slightly less affluent than Orleans more socio-economically diverse.
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« Reply #30 on: September 18, 2012, 07:37:47 pm »
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Only really tiny portions of either Ottawa-Orleans or OWN are rural. Under a very liberal definition of "rural", exactly 1000 votes were cast in 'rural' polls in Orleans in 2011, the rest of the riding is by and large a mix of older (70s-80s) and newer upper middle-class suburbs with lots of public servants and a large Franco population. OWN is even less rural, only one poll seems to be 'rural' and it cast 201 votes in 2011. I know less about OWN, but it's slightly less affluent than Orleans more socio-economically diverse.

I suspected that they may not have a significant rural population (due to their geographic compactness) - particularly compared to Eden-Monaro (take a look at the size of E-M as a comparison), but I suspect the other more rural seats around Ottawa are probably too conservative by comparison, and have too few public servants. Perhaps the old Pontiac, without the Bloc, may be somewhat comparable, but I think that's a bit of a stretch? Maybe the old Wascana might be a better example for it - there are a fair few provinical public servants in that part of town, isn't there? And it was a rurban seat...
« Last Edit: September 18, 2012, 07:40:44 pm by Smid »Logged
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« Reply #31 on: September 18, 2012, 10:37:31 pm »
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There's signigicant numbers of public servants in all of Ottawa's ridings, even the most Tory. OWN by the way is less Francophone than Orleans. The general rule in Ottawa is, the more east you go, the more Francophone, starting in the very English rural areas to the west of the city, to the very French rural areas to the east.

Ottawa has always been a somewhat Tory city. Of course it had a reputation as being a Liberal town in the 90s, but in truth the Tories have historical strength. It must be the Irish Protestant roots.
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« Reply #32 on: September 19, 2012, 11:27:06 pm »
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ACT
Canberra
In 2010, Canberra voted 44.23% Labor,    37.21% Liberal,    18.56% Green.
Meanwhile, Ottawa South  was:
2008: 49.83% L,    33.44% C,    8.47% N,    6.76% G.
2011: 44.01%L,     33.28% C,    18.16% N,   3.03% G.
The presence of a high-profile incumbent should be noted, however.

Fraser
In 2010, Fraser voted 45.81% Labor,    32.41% Liberal,    19.84% Green.
Meanwhile, Ottawa Centre  was:
2008: 39.69% N,    26.05% L,    23.59% C,    9.94% G.
2011: 52.11% N,    21.68% C,    20.12% L,    5.03% G.

NT
Lingiari
Large, sparsely populated, remote electorate, with a large indigenous population. Main industries are mining, cattle grazing and tourism.
In 2010, Lingiari voted 40.08% Labor,    34.26% Country Liberal,    12.59% Green,    ~9% split almost evenly between two independents.
Canadian equivalent = Churchill
2008: 47.40% N,    28.83% L,    20.48% C,    3.29% G.
2011: 21.12% N,    26.18% C,    20.36% L,    2.35% G.

Solomon
Despite being a territorial capital, is effectively a regional city, with the electorate covering the city and surrounding area. Some suburbs are quite conservative, others strongly back Labor, so it's marginal overall.
In 2010, Solomon voted 46.37% Country Liberal,    36.08% Labor,    13.29% Green.
Canadian equivalent = Sault Ste. Marie
2008: 40.46% N,    37.67% C,    16.77% L,     4.33% G.
2011: 41.44% C,    37.23% N,    18.86%L,     2.14% G.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2012, 11:28:28 pm by Smid »Logged
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« Reply #33 on: September 20, 2012, 01:24:12 am »
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Canberra would be battles between the NDP and Liberals, the Tories wouldn't even try. NDP would likely win both HoR seats, and the senate would split between the two.
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« Reply #34 on: September 20, 2012, 01:33:52 am »
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Canberra would be battles between the NDP and Liberals, the Tories wouldn't even try. NDP would likely win both HoR seats, and the senate would split between the two.

Yeah. It's an interesting one - the closest world comparison is Washington and unlike DC it's minority population iirc is non-existent. Most likely they would vote NDP.
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« Reply #35 on: September 24, 2012, 10:22:36 pm »
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Queensland
Groom
The AEC notes: "Groom covers an area of 5 594 sq kms and is located on the Darling Downs region of south east Queensland. The major population centre is Toowoomba which is Australia's largest inland town.
"This area is noted for its rich and diverse range of products and industries including agriculture, retailing and food processing as well as for the provision of educational and community services. Toowoomba is known as the Garden City. The University of Southern Queensland is located in Toowoomba while the Army Aviation Centre is based at Oakey."

USQ has about half as many students as the University of Lethbridge, and also fewer than the post-secondary Red Deer College, but Toowoomba is probably similar to those cities. Since Red Deer has been split into two ridings, I'm going to suggest that Groom and Lethbridge are two similar ridings for the purposes of this estimation.
In 2010, Groom voted 61.25% LNP,    22.67% Labor,    7.3% Green,    5.56% FamFrst,   3.23% Ind.

Lethbridge:
In 2011: 56.51% C,    27.18% N,    8.38% L,    4.36% G,    3.57% CHP.
In 2008: 67.33% C,    14.03% N,    9.21% L,   7.15% G,    2.28% CHP.

Maranoa
Large, sprawling, remote electorate (731,297 square km), predominantly coal, oil, gas, orchards, cotton, grain, cattle and sheep. A conservative electorate in a conservative state. I think it's probably akin to Crowfoot, which is now mostly Battle River and Bow River, although it votes more like one of the rural Saskatchewan seats, such as Cypress Hills - Grasslands. That said, with non-compulsory voting, like in Canada, it would probably be a safer seat.
In 2010, Maranoa voted 65.52% LNP,    19.96% Labor,    5.28% Ind,    5.15% Green,    4.09% FamFrst. After preferences, it was 72.89% LNP.

Crowfoot:
In 2011: 83.99% C,    9.15% N,    3.26% G,    2.33% L
In 2008: 82.04% C,    7.90% N,    5.97% G,    4.09% L

Cypress Hills - Grasslands:
In 2011: 69.85% C,    21.23% N,    6.25% L,    2.68% G.
In 2008: 64.36% C,    15.50% N,    13.26% L,    6.89% G.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2012, 11:41:24 pm by Smid »Logged
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« Reply #36 on: September 25, 2012, 12:24:29 pm »
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Why are you using the new ridings? They haven't been confirmed yet, and are unlikely to be confirmed exactly the way they are.
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« Reply #37 on: July 30, 2013, 01:44:20 am »
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Still in Queensland, I suspect that the seat of Kennedy is much like Fort Mac. Will expand on this later.

Tasmania, Denison (Hobart) is perhaps similar to Charlottetown, as a small state capital, contained in a single electorate, the capital of the smallest state with electorates substantially below the national average enrolment.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2013, 08:02:51 pm by Smid »Logged
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« Reply #38 on: September 06, 2013, 09:37:43 pm »
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The union links to the NDP could see it performing not dissimilarly to Labor in a fair number of seats, I suspect.

So there has to be either a permanent coalition like IRL's Lib/Nat one or a merged LDP. Which would be extremely difficult, if not downright impossible given the ideological/cultural disparity. The NDP, even today, will never assent to an economic program like HK Lab's or anything remotely similar. Liberals would have to work with the Tories.


Perhaps like BC? NDP vs BC Liberals? Be interesting to see the development of the NDP in this scenario - it started out as an agrarian socialist party, CCF, didn't? If that's the case, perhaps the Liberals would have had the greater links to the urban unionised workforce?

The other way to approach it is if we look at ridings and have a bit of a guess at their foreign equivalent (either look at a Canadian riding and work out what Australian electorate it resembles, or look at an Australian electorate, and guess how it might have voted in certain Canadian elections by drawing a parallel with a Canadian riding).

That could be an interesting side discussion - Australia with British Columbian parties.  Tony Abbot could never lead the BC Liberals- they have no time for social conservatives.  Perhaps you could fill the Nationals in for John Cummins and the BC Conservatives (though you'd have to reduce their vote somewhat).  The differences between the ALP and the BCNDP are a bit notable as well
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« Reply #39 on: September 09, 2013, 09:14:05 am »
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BC basically has the same parties as Australia. Right down to having right wing 'Liberal' parties.
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« Reply #40 on: September 09, 2013, 11:45:14 am »
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Other than that they don't. There's some superficial similarity, but let us not forget that the Liberals brought in BC's Carbon Tax, while the Left shamelessly condemned it.  And none of the social conservatism of either party is broked here
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