Australia with Canadian parties

[morgieb]

Liberals would win the inner-city areas and minorities.
NDP would do well in Green areas plus "communitarian" leaning areas (so Hunter Valley might be an NDP rather than a Liberal stronghold)
Tories would win rural areas and wealthy suburbs.

At least that's what I think. It'll be interesting to see where the SoCon ALP members go. Also interesting to see if the Turnbull/Fraser types are Red Tories or Liberals.

[morgieb]

Might something like BQ appear in North Queensland or somewhere? Although I don't think they're calling for outright state soverignty, lol.

[morgieb]

This is interesting idea.  I'm guessing Rudd would either be one of the socially conservative Liberals or a Red Tory.  I also think, given how desperate she seems to be for power, that Gillard would be a left-leaning Liberal.  Plibersek, Combet, Andrew Leigh, Albanese, Wong, Carr, Garrett, and Macklin would be Dippers.  Roxon is tricky to say.  Ferguson could also fall into either the Liberals or the NDP.  Wayne Swan is even harder to call.  He's been calling for the fight against income inequality to return to the ALP's platform, yet he's quite the SoCon.  Since someone who opposes same-sex marriage can't get anywhere in the NDP (and rightfully so), he'd be lucky to become an NDP MP.  Burke is a similar case.  In fact, there are probably tons of people like this.  And given how "hippie" the NDP and Liberals both tend to be, I think a lot of the socially conservative working class areas where people like Swan and Burke have appeal would simply vote Tory, the same way lots of socially conservative poor areas in Canada do.  Maybe the Liberals would have them, but even they have a metropolitan image which would alienate them to the working class.  Shorten I'm guessing would be a Liberal.  Crean, Latham, Smith, Weatherill, and others along those lines. 
Given the appeal the Torries have gotten in the west by portraying the Liberals as snobby elites, they'd probably have a similar appeal in Australia.  Pretty much everyone in the coalition would be a Torry.  And the Canadian Greens and the Australian Greens are really different, too, so I kinda think that Bob Brown could well be a Dipper. 

Wouldn't Carr be a Grit?


Unless you're talking about Kim

[morgieb]

Orange Crush came primarily in Quebec, so it might not happen here. Some other guesses:

1980: Either a Liberal or Tory minority government, but more likely a Red-Orange coalition.

1983: Liberal landslide.

1984: Tory majority?

1987: Small Liberal majority due to Tory infighting.

*1990: Tory majority.

1993: Liberal majority, IRL Keating got a big primary swing which would be a much more comfortable majority with FPTP than what he actually did with STV.

1996: Tory landslide.

1998: Liberal/NDP coalition or Liberal minority government.

2001: Tory majority.

2004: Tory landslide.

2007: Liberal landslide.

2010: Tory majority.

*Analogues, since obviously with 4/5 year parliamentary terms the electoral cycle would be different. These guesses are based off primary votes.

84 would still be a Liberal majority. It was 48-45 on primary votes that year.

[morgieb]

I'll do a couple of seats right now.

Grayndler

NDP stronghold, winning the counter-culturish areas (Newtown) and the more working-class ones (Marrickville). The areas further from the cities however may vote Liberal.

Sydney

NDP-Liberal swing seat, with the NDP winning areas around Glebe but the Liberals winning wealthier areas in the CBD. A high gay population helps the NDP, however parts of the seat is rapidly gentrifying.

Banks

Would probably "lean" Tory, however the Liberals would have a base with ethnic voters around Hurstville and more poorer places around East Hills/Riverwood.

[morgieb]

Canberra would be battles between the NDP and Liberals, the Tories wouldn't even try. NDP would likely win both HoR seats, and the senate would split between the two.

Yeah. It's an interesting one - the closest world comparison is Washington and unlike DC it's minority population iirc is non-existent. Most likely they would vote NDP.