These people I think are fairly certain to run...
If Pataki runs for either Govenor again or Senator he won't run. Its not exactly a good policy to run for President after getting crushed for office in your own state. Even if Pataki runs, he has no chance at the primary for the same reason as Rudy too socially liberal for the national GOP.
i would add Bayj to the Dems list, pretty sure he will run