If the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke in '96 instead of '98...

[hoshie]

I recently watched CNN's coverage of the 1996 election on YouTube. This is one election I remember well. This has got me thinking: would the result been any different had the Monica Lewinsky scandal and impeachment happened in 1996 instead of 1998? Or was Bob Dole's campaign so beyond help that the scandal wouldn't have mattered?

[morgieb]

No, Clinton would be toast, unless the GOP reacted like they did in 1998.

[Mr. Morden]

It would be such a huge distraction, there'd be enormous pressure on Clinton to drop his candidacy, and have the convention nominate someone else.  That would be an interesting timeline, if there was a brokered convention because of the Lewinsky scandal.

[Pingvin]

It would be such a huge distraction, there'd be enormous pressure on Clinton to drop his candidacy, and have the convention nominate someone else.  That would be an interesting timeline, if there was a brokered convention because of the Lewinsky scandal.

Interesting question. Possible replacements could be Kerrey, Bradley, Gephardt or even Jesse Jackson.

[Mister Mets]

With a brokered convention, you might have had a Gore/ Lieberman ticket in 1996.

Gore would be the most prominent Democrat. And Lieberman became the most vocal critic of Clinton's affairs among the Democrats. That would have been useful in the immediate aftermath.

Although Dole would still have won, considering the distractions for the Democrats.

Dole might have chosen someone else as his running mate, so you likely would not have had Jack Kemp as VP.

[mondale84]

Clinton still wins since the scandal helps him to remind men that he's more of a man than Dole.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Clinton still wins since the scandal helps him to remind men that he's more of a man than Dole.

...

You're not real, are you?

[mondale84]

Clinton still wins since the scandal helps him to remind men that he's more of a man than Dole.

...

You're not real, are you?

What's so wrong about what I said? Clinton probably overperforms with men because he shows people that he's a macho man who isn't scared of his masculinity. I would expect Clinton to expand his margin and probably win AL, MS, GA, SC, and TX.

[Mr. Morden]

Out of curiosity, on a related note, has anyone ever done a what-if timeline on what happens if Hillary divorces Bill over the Lewinsky affair?

[morgieb]

Out of curiosity, on a related note, has anyone ever done a what-if timeline on what happens if Hillary divorces Bill over the Lewinsky affair?

iirc there was one on AH.