President Forever 2012 scenario 2.0 and 2008 alternative

[NVGonzalez]

Just made a bit of an update to the scenario. Happy I got the time considering how the work is in full swing and a half. I also added an alternative timeline to the wonk scenario on a what if Romney had been nominated in 2008. The default candidate is still McCain of course but I added events on how Romney would had fared then with Bain and the tax returns which would also be available if Romney is nominated from the primary process or selected as a candidate when you start in the GE process. You know what to do. If not just PM with the e-mail and I'll send em over.

Also I am trying to figure out how to convert PF 2008 scenarios to the 2012 game if possible. So far no such luck.

[Hoverbored123]

Here's my first play-through map:

Popular vote: Obama 48.9%, Romney 48.6%, Johnson 1.2%, Stein 0.5%.  It's a realistic scenario, but I do have a few quibbles:

1)  Even with "economy" turned on, there was virtually no economic news throughout the campaign, understating the effect of the economy. 
2)  The share of the vote going to third-party candidates might have been slightly overstated. (2.5% overall)
3)  Some news events (i.e., the reaction to the embassy attacks) seem too pre-scripted. 
4)  Debate prep and issue knowledge don't seem to have any effect on the debate outcome. 

Overall, it's a very well-made scenario, although some adjustments might be helpful. 

Thanks!

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I just played through the newest scenario you e-mailed me a few days ago. Really enjoyed it.

I played as Romney. The primaries were easy as pie; I won every single contest. Unfortunately, Gingrich was extremely butt-hurt and decided he was going to wait until almost May to drop out. It was a pain. Anyhow, I pretty much stopped worrying about the primaries after South Carolina and instead concentrated on upping my skills and researching scandals. I spent a ton of money on ads, so I'd get huge momentum swings that would give me massive CP points. I continued that strategy through the general.

Rubio was a decent VP pick who I mostly used out West.

By election day, the polls were looking pretty damn good:

The election results were pretty similar:

ROMNEY/RUBIO - 437 EV - 56.6% PV
OBAMA/BIDEN - 101 EV - 42.5% PV

[NVGonzalez]

Noted. I will keep that in mind on to my next update. Thanks guys!

[Hoverbored123]

I wonder if it would be easier if I started in the primaries...

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Can you send me a copy of this please?

[Hoverbored123]

Here's the result of this morning's play-through; I was Obama:

Those "flyover" states are hard as heck to flip.

[Hoverbored123]

I want to compare this map to one of my play-through's:

Of course, my map was from playing the "official" scenario, but the similarities are striking.  I think I was playing on "hard," but the scenario from 270soft is way easier.  When it comes to Antonio's version, I can't even win when playing as Romney. 

My strategy relies more on foot soldiers and endorsements (particularly in CA); I like to do the bulk of my ad spending in the last 2 or 3 weeks before election day, so as to build continuous momentum and overwhelm the opposition; the other side is usually low on money by then.  I always like to start early on CA; foot soldiers early and often.  I can never seem to get a really juicy scandal going; maybe starting in the primaries is the right idea after all...

[Hoverbored123]

Here's a map from a play-through on "easy." 

Some of these states are as hard to flip as a cement pancake.

[NVGonzalez]

I think I figured out some of the mechanics. I actually noticed in the old PF 2008 before they took off the auto update that the 3rd parties did end up getting 1.2% (Stein) and 2.5% (Johnson). Compare that to the 1.7 version and they only get 0.8 and 0.2. Also it is much easier to get nominated as Romney in 1.7 rather than 1.02. Also I played as Perry in 1.7 and was nominated by April while in 1.02 I got whiped out of the competition by that time. A new update should be ready very soon, by the weekend I will target.

[NVGonzalez]

I want to compare this map to one of my play-through's:

Of course, my map was from playing the "official" scenario, but the similarities are striking.  I think I was playing on "hard," but the scenario from 270soft is way easier.  When it comes to Antonio's version, I can't even win when playing as Romney. 

My strategy relies more on foot soldiers and endorsements (particularly in CA); I like to do the bulk of my ad spending in the last 2 or 3 weeks before election day, so as to build continuous momentum and overwhelm the opposition; the other side is usually low on money by then.  I always like to start early on CA; foot soldiers early and often.  I can never seem to get a really juicy scandal going; maybe starting in the primaries is the right idea after all...

My strategy when I start from the general is much different. I do rely on footsoldiers also but instead concentrate in the white states until they are full. I also use a 15-10-5 point strategy on ads. I throw ads in the first 3 weeks of the campaign of states I am either up or down by 15 and see if I can shake or lock those states. Then I go down to 10 In the next 3 weeks and then 5. It usually gives me 390 EV's. The undecided percentage is 10% as you know and the leanings are 20% for both candidates so there is a ceiling you can end up getting.

[Hoverbored123]

I played the scenario on "Normal" this morning, and it was a doozy.  Here's the final poll map:

After weeks of ads and lots of foot soldiers, I managed to get CA into the swing column.  Unfortunately, I neglected to look closely at the private polls and found that Obama was pulling ahead in the Deep South (Georgia to Virginia), and was also up in Indiana.  I forgot the maps only reflect public polling (something I wish they'd fix; anyone know if the 2012 version is different?).  Anyway, I did some last minute barnstorming in Florida (Romney) and Indiana (Ryan) and decided to just roll the dice on Virginia, Georgia, and the Carolinas, hoping that my momentum there would carry me through.  This was going to be a nail-biter, plain and simple. 

What's amazing is how many states were close calls: seven states had a winner with less than 50%, and in six of them the margin of victory was less than a point. 

GUIDE: Obama/Romney/Johnson/Stein/Goode

Alabama: 885,744 (44.2%)/ 1,195,991 (56.9%)/ 10,305 (0.5%)/ 4,451 (0.2%)/ 4,122 (0.2%)
Alaska: 128,270 (44)/ 157,503 (54.1%)/ 2,905 (1%), 2,526 (0.9%)/ Goode 0 (0%)
Arizona: 1,132,143 (47.6%)/ 1,182,772 (49.7%)/ 36,870 (1.5%)/ 28,434 (1.2%)/ Goode 0 (0%)
Arkansas: 488,758 (40%)/ 699,927 (57.3%)/ 22,955 (1.9%)/ 10,548 (0.9%), Goode 0 (0%)
California: 7,920,771 (50.4%)/ 1,516,543 (47.8%)/ 125,408 (0.8%)/ 33,759 (0.2%)/ 114,033 (0.7%)
Colorado: 855,216 (44.1%)/ 1,036,721 (53.4%)/ 19,920 (1%)/ 4,117 (0.2%)/ 24,716 (1.3%)
Connecticut: 835,352 (52.4%)/ 719,031 (45.1%)/ 36,591 (2.3%)/ 0 (0%)/ 3,150 (0.2%)
Delaware: 230,963 (62.3%)/ 135,368 (36.5%)/ 3,627 (1%)/ 793 (0.2%)/ 0 (0%)
District of Columbia: 239,396 (85.4%)/ 35,005 (12.5%)/ 5,419 (1.9%)/ 580 (0.2%)/ 0 (0%)
Florida: 3,273,404 (45.6%)/ 3,823,299 (53.3%)/ 50,483 (0.7%)/ 15,263 (0.2%)/ 14,810 (0.2%)
Georgia: 1,834,152 (48.9%)/ 1,857,420 (49.5%)/ 18,958 (0.5%)/ 8,009 (0.2%)/ 32,132 (0.9%)
Hawaii: 369,405 (66.2%)/ 181,442 (32.5%)/ 5,620 (1%)/ 1,235 (0.2%)/ 0 (0%)
Idaho: 206,190 (33.3%)/ 394,710 (63.7%)/ 16,443 (2.7%)/ 1,295 (0.2%)/ 1,198 (0.2%)
Illinois: 3,268,638 (57.5%)/ 2,184,857 (38.4%)/ 138,510 (2.4%)/ 81,270 (1.4%)/ 11,493 (0.2%)
Indiana: 1,241,296 (43.9%)/ 1,534,826 (54.3%)/ 28,139 (1%)/ 15,869 (0.6%)/ 5,627 (0.2%)
Iowa: 609,508 (46.2%)/ 675,737 (51.2%)/ 13,545 (1%)/ 2,761 (0.2%)/ 18,047 (1.4%)
Kansas: 452,254 (36%)/ 758,195 (60.3%)/ 46,551 (3.7%)/ 0 (0%)/ 0 (0%)
Kentucky: 731,665 (38.8%)/ 1,139,217 (60.5%)/ 9,354 (0.5%)/ 4,069 (0.2%)/ 0 (0%)
Louisiana: 825,590 (39.9%)/ 1,181,813 (57.1%)/ 10,349 (0.5%)/ 4,520 (0.2%)/ 45,954 (2.2%)
Maine: 326,324 (55%)/ 248,050 (41.8%)/ 11,806 (2%)/ 1,285 (0.2%)/ 5,323 (0.9%)
Maryland: 1,324,236 (56%)/ 875,063 (37%)/ 91,323 (3.9%)/ 31,571 (1.3%)/ 42,257 (1.8%)
Massachusetts: 1,683,084 (58.8%)/ 1,156,724 (40.4%)/ 14,681 (0.5%)/ 6,453 (0.2%)/ 0 (0%)
Michigan: 2,331,528 (51.5%)/ 2,148,663 (47.5%)/ 0 (0%)/ 9,360 (0.2%)/ 37,367 (0.8%)
Minnesota: 1,236,724 (54.4%)/ 996,760 (43.8%)/ 11,812 (0.5%)/ 9,632 (0.4%)/ 18,909 (0.8%)
Montana: 201,462 (45.8%)/ 222,468 (50.6%)/ 15,313 (3.5%)/ 0 (0%)/ 836 (0.2%)
Nebraska: 291,717 (36.4%)/ 500,783 (62.6%)/ 7,925 (1%)/ 0 (0%)/ 0 (0%)
Nevada: 435,438 (47.9%)/ 435,494 (47.9%)/ 21,521 (2.4%)/ 0 (0%)/ 16,004 (1.8%)
New Jersey: 1,997,619 (53.2%)/ 1,605,510 (42.8%)/ 133,298 (3.6%)/ 8,503 (0.2%)/ 7,784 (0.2%)
New Mexico: 405,254 (45.2%)/ 411,410 (45.9%)/ 68,407 (7.6%)/ 2,810 (0.3%)/ 8,816 (1%)
New York: 4,998,596 (57.6%)/ 3,544,022 (40.8%)/ 43,901 (0.5%)/ 19,250 (0.2%)/ 79,699 (0.9%)
North Carolina: 1,600,859 (44%)/ 2,015,256 (55.3%)/ 18,636 (0.5%)/ 0 (0%)/ 7,454 (0.2%)
Ohio: 2,349,982 (46.1%)/ 2,666,866 (52.4%)/ 26,275 (0.5%)/ 10,529 (0.2%)/ 39,527 (0.8%)
Oklahoma: 544,591 (33.1%)/ 1,101,323 (66.9%)/ 0 (0%)/ 0 (0%)/ 0 (0%)
Oregon: 773,986 (49.2%)/ 777,043 (49.4%)/ 15,839 (1%)/ 4,761 (0.3%) 0 (0%)
Pennsylvania: 2,870,545 (51.2%)/ 2,699,743 (48.1%)/ 28,414 (0.5%)/ 11,464 (0.2%)/ 0 (0%)
Rhode Island: 272,000 (56.7%)/ 201,861 (42.1%)/ 2,424 (0.5%)/ 2,448 (0.5%)/ 969 (0.2%)
South Carolina: 917,567 (48.9%)/ 927,804 (49.4%)/ 9,297 (0.5%)/ 3,790 (0.2%)/ 18,224 (1%)
South Dakota: 171,372 (48.7%)/ 175,900 (49.9%)/ 4,209 (1.2%)/ 0 (0%)/ 699 (0.2%)
Tennessee: 1,278,533 (49.1%)/ 1,286,398 (49.4%)/ 29,246 (1.1%)/ 5,529 (0.2%)/ 5,266 (0.2%)
Texas: 4,049,673 (41.3%)/ 5,608,527 (57.3%)/ 96,576 (1%)/ 20,689 (0.2%)/ 19,315 (0.2%)
Utah: 315,060 (31%)/ 687,302 (67.6%)/ 10,333 (1%)/ 2,271 (0.2%)/ 2,066 (0.2%)
Vermont: 178,652 (63%)/ 92,945 (32.8%)/ 6,526 (2.3%)/ 0 (0%)/ 5,271 (1.9%)
Virginia: 1,427,812 (44%)/ 1,630,154 (50.2%)/ 72,560 (2.2%)/ 0 (0%)/ 117,857 (3.6%)
Washington: 1,370,200 (52.6%)/ 1,196,165 (45.9%)/ 27,298 (1%)/ 5,661 (0.2%)/ 5,459 (0.2%)
West Virginia: 320,844 (38.9%)/ 485,837 (58.9%)/ 8,376 (1%)/ 7,673 (0.9%)/ 1,675 (0.2%)
Wisconsin: 1,267,280 (51.6%)/ 1,124,539 (45.8%)/ 12,407 (0.5%)/ 16,332 (0.7%)/ 34,139 (1.4%)
Wyoming: 80,644 (35.2%)/ 144,256 (62.9%)/ 2,288 (1%)/ 0 (0%)/ 2,104 (0.9%)
NATIONWIDE TOTAL: 62,694,045 (48.5%)/ 63,906,157 (49.4%)/ 1,473,291 (1.1%)/ 408,843 (0.3%)/ 788,361 (0.6%)

I hope you don't mind my posting the complete statewide data, but this was such a close one that I want it preserved for posterity.  Also, this could count as my own prediction map at this point. 

It's fascinating, the amount of insight you can glean from this result: could Obama make a late play for the Deep South in real life?  Could Oregon or even California flip at the last second?  Only time will tell.

[sentinel]

Whats Antonios version eh