The Democrats are so screwed in the Senate in 2014 it's not even funny

[Mister Twister]

Assuming an Obama re-election (Which let's be serious, has about a 75-80% chance of occuring)

Louisiana - gone
Arkansas - gone (probably)
West Virginia - Rockefeller is retiring. Gonna be impossible to hold this espeically since Capito will probably finally run. Even Manchin struggled to beat a carpet-bagger in an off year
New Hampshire - Probably gonna be a toss-up. Shaheen is not that popular and NH likes to boot out incumbants
North Carolina - Toss-up. Hagan has only decent approvals
Iowa - Harkin has indicated he will retire. How will the Democrats hold this seat in an off-year
Minnesota - Franken is not THAT popular. If Pawlenty runs, he could be in serious trouble
South Dakota - gone. Johnson is going to retire, he's very sickly. Besides, Mike Rounds has already set up an exploritory committee.
Montana - I heard Baucus was going to retire? If he does and unless Scweitzer runs, the Dems could lose this seat.
Michigan - Levin will probably retire. The open seat should lean Democrat but the Dems will still be forced to spend resources here probably
Alaska - gone. I mean, this Begich guy scraped by with 47% against a convicted felon in a good Dem year.

Chances for Dem pickup?

Kentucky - But in 2010 we had a good candidate that still lost in Conway. Hard to see a state like Kentucky flipping in an off year.a net gain of 5-7 seats for the GOP in 2014.
Oklahoma - I think Inhofe is going to retire. If Brad Henry runs, maybe we can take this seat. But still a long-shot.

Realistically, we're looking at

[BlondeArtisit]

2 years is a long time in politics.

I wouldn't bet on mary landrieu and mark pryor losing.
Alaska isn't impossible.

Everyone agrees the economy is going to boom by that point so with 4-5% growth lets see how it goes.

this time two years ago, we had north dakota, montana, missouri in republican column still not the case yet.

[I left.]

Even if - just seeing them destroy 2012, a year they had so much potential in.....is well worth it

[Gravis Marketing]

Yep, but at least 2016 has us running against Toomey, Kirk (who has health problems), Ron Johnson, and Rand Paul where three of them don't want to face a presidential year electorate.

2014 is tough for Dems but when was the last time a two-term president has two 1994s? 1998 was good for Dems, and 1982 wasn't bad for Republicans (leading to 1986).

[Senator Snowstalker]

The only states I can see going GOP are Louisiana, Alaska, South Dakota, Montana, and Iowa. We have Kentucky and Maine to put in play as well.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

afaik Bachus and Harkin are running again.

[Sibboleth]

Even Manchin struggled to beat a carpet-bagger in an off year

This is what people remember - because it did briefly look like what was going on - but isn't what actually happened. Manchin won by 10pts.

Which isn't predictive, of course. But a reminder to double check results as memory can be deceptive.

[Jbrase]

Has there ever been any polling to suggest rand in vulnerable? I have a hard time seeing him losing.

[Badger]

Even Manchin struggled to beat a carpet-bagger in an off year

This is what people remember - because it did briefly look like what was going on - but isn't what actually happened. Manchin won by 10pts.

Which isn't predictive, of course. But a reminder to double check results as memory can be deceptive.

Also a more basic problem: What in hell's name are you doing labeling John Raese a "carpetbagger"?

The man was born and raised in WV. His businesses are largely connected with WV, and he's been running for statewide office for THREE DECADES. His dad was even a former WVU basketball coach for crissakes!

[Senator Ben]

I disagree, in terms of severity and individual seats.  2014 will be tough, obviously, but not a disaster like you're predicting.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Has there ever been any polling to suggest rand in vulnerable? I have a hard time seeing him losing.

Given that he only won by 11% in a landslide GOP year in a red state against an opponent who ran campaign ads like

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nxNUcBA_g8 and
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmEQs58tOhs

I wouldn't be surprised to see him go down if 2016, especially if Grimes runs.

[Vosem]

Yes. It's perfectly plausible Democrats have a good year but somewhat poor candidate recruitment, resulting in Democrats picking up the House but Republicans gaining 3-5 Senate seats and gaining the Senate.

[BlondeArtisit]

Yes. It's perfectly plausible Democrats have a good year but somewhat poor candidate recruitment, resulting in Democrats picking up the House but Republicans gaining 3-5 Senate seats and gaining the Senate.

Last week you predicted the republicans would win the senate in 2012. Changed your opinion?

[Emperor SJoyce]

Has there ever been any polling to suggest rand in vulnerable? I have a hard time seeing him losing.

Location, location, location; that and the continued existence of a Democratic Party apparatus in Kentucky that is largely independent from that of the national party, meaning that a Democrat is viable and could plausibly win.

[Vosem]

Yes. It's perfectly plausible Democrats have a good year but somewhat poor candidate recruitment, resulting in Democrats picking up the House but Republicans gaining 3-5 Senate seats and gaining the Senate.

Last week you predicted the republicans would win the senate in 2012. Changed your opinion?

No, although some Massachusetts polling and the Baldwin+3 PPP poll in Wisconsin worry me. I still think Brown & Thompson are favorites in the long haul. And Republicans can totally take the Senate in 2012 and still gain more in 2014.

[Gravis Marketing]

I don't know of polling showing Rand is vulnerable, but he's odd and amateurish enough to get a challenge.

[Landslide Lyndon]

PPP polled Montana a few weeks ago and showed Baucus beating Generic Republican by a couple of points, IIRC.

Also in Iowa, if Harking retires then Braley will run and he is a fairly strong candidate.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Why is Pawlenty such a supposed threat? He's a washed up joke.

[MilesC56]

As expected, the only way Maine would flip is an open-seat situation.

Collins is already near 60%, leading a Generic D 59-25.

[Korwinist]

Has there ever been any polling to suggest rand in vulnerable? I have a hard time seeing him losing.

Given that he only won by 11% in a landslide GOP year in a red state against an opponent who ran campaign ads like

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nxNUcBA_g8 and
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmEQs58tOhs

I wouldn't be surprised to see him go down if 2016, especially if Grimes runs.

Yeah, but the Republicans won the Kentucky Senate seat even when Bunning was being senile and the Democrats actually tried to win it. McConnell won by less than Rand did, for that matter.

Rand is probably one of the safer Republican seats.

[Devils30]

Not sure what the political environment will be if Obama wins again but it's possible if the economy is better it will be a fairly good incumbent year. Highly doubt Obama has a major controversial legislative idea like healthcare so the vitriol might be much less than 2010 even in Arkansas etc

[Ogre Mage]

This was discussed on The Fix.  I'd say there is a high probability the GOP will gain a Senate majority in 2014, but there is also a high probability it will be short lived.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/09/20/a-gop-senate-majority-just-wait-for-2014/